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Europe's perpetual agitation: The historical struggle for autonomous security
In Brief
- European security has historically relied on a precarious "balance of power," a state of "perpetual agitation" designed to manage conflict rather than eliminate it.
- The war in Ukraine tests this fragile system, reinforcing European security dependency on external powers like the US, a vulnerability exacerbated by competing global interests (e.g., China opposing Western sanctions).
- Lasting peace requires transforming Europe from a collection of states into a solid confederation capable of asserting a unified will and preventing its destiny from being decided by outside powers.
- Geopolitical strength is contingent on internal cohesion, which demands overcoming fragmentation, managing economic burdens, and ensuring popular support for sustained common defense efforts.
Main authors
The political state of Europe has long been characterized as one of inherent instability, a system possessing just enough stability to avoid complete collapse while remaining in a state of 'perpetual agitation' [1]. This delicate equilibrium, historically managed through the art of diplomacy and political thought, has been seen as a necessary condition to prevent systemic overthrow [2]. Central to this historical self-conception was the idea of a balance of power, a political arrangement designed to serve as a 'strong barrier against unjust aggression,' thereby securing a degree of independence for smaller states against their more powerful neighbors [3]. This system, however, relies on the assumption that an equilibrium can be maintained and that the collective will can be marshaled to check ambitious powers.
In the contemporary era, this fragile barrier is being tested by renewed great power competition and external aggression, which challenge Europe's capacity for autonomous action [4]. The war in Ukraine has underscored the continent's security dependencies and the degree to which its fate can be shaped by forces outside its direct control . While coalitions have formed to confront violations of sovereignty, the responses are often complicated by the differing interests of global actors, creating a complex geopolitical landscape where unilateral sanctions are questioned and alternative world orders are proposed [5]. This raises a fundamental question: can the European political system evolve from a reactive collection of states into a proactive, unified entity capable of asserting its collective will, defending its foundational liberties, and preventing the descent into a state of violence that history has shown to be a constant threat? [6].
The Historical Framework of European Security
The traditional European political system was understood not as a state of placid peace, but as a dynamic of managed conflict . The ever-present risk of war was a known variable, and statesmen saw their role as navigating these perpetual tensions through careful diplomacy . This framework, while precarious, offered a functional defense for the sovereignty of less powerful nations. The balancing act between great powers could create a protective barrier, ensuring that the ambitions of one hegemon were kept in check by another, thereby preserving the independence of smaller states caught in between . Yet, this security was contingent and reactive, a system designed to manage crises rather than eliminate their root causes.
Disenchantment with this state of perpetual agitation led to calls for a more profound and lasting solution: the establishment of a solid confederation [7]. Theorists argued that only through a system of genuine mutual dependence could the continent overcome the selfish, particular interests that led to conflict. The goal was to create an association of states so interconnected that no single member, or small group of members, could realistically resist the will of the whole . This vision aligns with the ideal of a system based on established, universally recognized principles of international morality which, if followed, would prevent war altogether [8]. The post-World War II project of European integration can be seen as the most significant attempt to realize this vision, born from the conviction that uniting former belligerents economically and politically was the only path to a lasting peace [9].
However, this aspiration for a self-regulating, principles-based order has always competed with the harsh realities of power politics. Historically, the fate of European territories has often been decided by external empires jockeying for influence and partitioning the spoils of war [10]. This pattern, where the continent's map is drawn by outside powers, underscores a persistent vulnerability. It highlights the deep-seated challenge of transforming a geographic space composed of diverse states into a singular geopolitical actor with its own agency, a challenge that continues to define Europe's struggle for a coherent foreign policy [11].
Confronting Aggression in a Multipolar World
The 21st-century resurgence of conventional warfare on European soil, particularly Russia's aggression against Ukraine, serves as a stark validation of historical warnings about the continent's inherent fragility . The conflict is widely framed not merely as a dispute between two nations, but as an attack on the foundational 'liberties of Europe' . The response has demonstrated a capacity for transatlantic cooperation, with the United States and European nations standing 'shoulder-to-shoulder' in implementing coordinated sanctions policies since 2014 . This alignment, while providing a united front, also reinforces a dynamic of dependency, where European security is intrinsically linked to the political will and military capabilities of an external superpower.
This dynamic is further complicated by the rise of a multipolar world where a consensus on international norms is no longer guaranteed. Powers like China explicitly challenge the efficacy and legitimacy of Western-led sanctions, arguing that such unilateral measures are unauthorized, create new problems, and hinder economic development . This position introduces a significant counter-narrative on the world stage, making it more difficult to isolate aggressive actors and enforce a rules-based international order. Europe finds itself navigating a complex environment where its actions are contested not only by adversaries but also by other major powers with different strategic interests.
Ultimately, confronting aggression involves stakes far beyond the territory of a single country. The core issue is the defense of a broader principle: that lawless aggression should not stand and that a 'new world order' based on peace, security, and the rule of law is worth struggling for [12]. This necessitates a sober calculation of what is at risk, recognizing that peace cannot be contingent on the 'will and whims of a ruthless and aggressive dictator' [13]. The challenge for Europe is to contribute decisively to this struggle, not just as a junior partner in an alliance, but as an autonomous pole capable of projecting its own power and upholding its own values [14].
The Internal Frontier: Forging a Unified Political Will
The effectiveness of any external security barrier is contingent upon the internal cohesion of the entity it protects. A strong central government, by its very nature, can serve as a 'barrier against foreign foes,' unifying the strength of a nation to prevent external intrusion [15]. Similarly, a political structure with subordinate governments and an engaged populace can form an 'insurmountable' barrier against the ambitious enterprises of would-be tyrants [16]. For Europe, this suggests that its capacity to act as a geopolitical force depends fundamentally on the strength and legitimacy of its collective institutions and the willingness of its member states to cede some sovereignty for the sake of common security.
This internal unity, however, faces significant threats. Central governments today often find their decision-making powers eroding, not only to international bodies but also to internal separatist movements, which can fragment the political landscape from within [17]. The history of post-war Eastern Europe provides a cautionary tale, demonstrating that even dictatorial regimes are not immune to popular discontent and that prolonged indifference to public opinion can shatter fragile political stability [18, 19]. For a democratic union like the EU, maintaining public support and managing internal political divergences is a constant and essential task for preserving its ability to act on the world stage.
The foundation of this political will is ultimately socioeconomic. To prevent sedition and internal conflict, one must first remove its material causes [20]. The immense financial burden of modern warfare and armament, which falls heavily on the general population, can erode public appetite for confrontation, as economic anxieties often outweigh strategic considerations [21, 22]. Therefore, Europe's struggle for agency is twofold: it must build the political and military structures to confront external threats while simultaneously ensuring the economic prosperity and social fairness that foster the internal resilience required to sustain such an effort over the long term [23].
Europe's pursuit of geopolitical autonomy remains an unfinished and arduous project, caught between its historical legacy of fragmentation and the contemporary pressures of a multipolar world . The ambition to create a durable confederation, capable of enforcing collective security and transcending the self-interested conflicts of the past, persists as the continent's guiding ideal [24]. Yet this vision is continuously tested by the reality of external aggression and the competing strategic calculations of other global powers, which threaten to relegate Europe to a secondary role in determining its own security . The strength of its external 'barrier' against aggression is therefore inextricably linked to its success in overcoming internal divisions and forging a unified political will .
Moving forward, securing the continent will require more than reactive diplomacy; it demands the proactive application of 'art and of political thought' to fundamentally alter the system of perpetual agitation that has long defined European history . Failing to build a robust and autonomous collective security framework risks a future where Europe’s peace depends not on its own strength and principles, but on the shifting allegiances and negotiations of external powers . The ultimate challenge is to ensure that the defense of European liberties is directed by the peoples of Europe themselves, lest they see their continent's destiny decided by others .
