Cecilia Elena Rouse

“ In March, the headline unemployment rate dropped to 6.0 percent, 2.5 percentage points above the rate in February 2020, before the pandemic sent many workers home and shuttered businesses and schools. Given the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics identifies and defines unemployed workers, the headline unemployment rate likely understates unemployment in a pandemic relative to a typical downturn. Since February 2020, almost 4 million workers have dropped out of the labor force. ”

“ Black women were only 14 percent of the female labor force in February 2020, but have accounted for a disproportionate 26 percent of female labor force dropouts since then. Hispanic women were only 17 percent of the female labor force in February 2020 but have accounted for 27 percent of the female labor force dropouts. ”

“ The narrowing of the male-female employment loss gap reflects strong growth in household employment for women in March. The employment-population ratio for adult women jumped to 54.1 percent, while it ticked down by 0.1 percentage point for adult men to 65.4 percent. The increase was particularly large for Hispanic women, whose employment-population ratio jumped by 1.1 percentage point. However, employment for Hispanic women remains 6.5 percent below the February 2020 level. ”

“ State and local education employment added 125,600 jobs in March, accounting for 92 percent of the jobs added in government.
Despite the gains in March, many industries are still working their way back from their pandemic losses. At the sector level, by far the worst hit industry is leisure and hospitality, with 19 percent fewer jobs than in February 2020. This industry alone accounts for around 40 percent of the remaining pandemic job loss. ”

“ As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and payroll employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data as they become available. ”

“ The unemployment rate also varies substantially across groups, based on both the official unemployment rate and the one adjusted for labor force dropout and misclassification issues. Black and Latino workers have been particularly hard hit, with the adjusted rate for both in double digits. ”

“ Employment in motion picture and sound recording is down over 40 percent while performing arts and spectator sports is down around 34 percent since before the pandemic, reflecting that it is difficult for those industries to conduct business in a socially-distanced way. Many of the industries that are down the most will continue to struggle until the pandemic is fully under control. ”

“ This morning’s jobs report shows an acceleration in job growth in February and an upward revision to January’s job growth. However, the economy remains down 9.5 million jobs from February 2020 and will require more than two years of job growth at February’s pace just to get back to pre-pandemic levels. ”

“ However, not all industries have suffered in the pandemic. For instance, employment in couriers and messengers is up around 23 percent, and employment in building material and garden supply stores is up around 7 percent. ”