Frederick William Lanchester

“ The author believes that in future naval warfare much of the observation work and fire control will be corrected by aircraft, either dirigible or aeroplane being used; under these conditions it will be necessary for the battleship to notify to its associated aircraft the range of each salvo, so that when the fire of two or more vessels is concentrated on one, the aerial observer will be able to locate the position of any given salvo with certainty. ”

“ Thus even where, as in the attack on an arsenal or magazine, the position is protected by counter aircraft artillery, it is fair to assume that the latter is mounted at a sufficient distance from the main object of attack not to be endangered unless bombs are wilfully diverted from their objective. Under these conditions a numerically great attacking force of aeroplanes will manifestly possess an advantage in that they will divide the limited fire capacity of the defending batteries and so suffer less individual punishment ”

“ Such work as contemplated can only be effectively performed by aircraft if sufficiently numerous, operating in units of flights or squadrons. It will be found comparatively useless to endeavour to carry out the duties in question by single machines, since it will often be necessary to sweep considerable areas of the ocean in order to pick up the trail or get on the track of a submarine that has been temporarily lost. It is thus only when the number of machines and the organisation is sufficiently developed that the power of aircraft as controlling submarine activity will be fully realised. ”

“ The technique in the present case is the technique of gunnery and fire control, and the author believes that it cannot be put too strongly that it is "up to" the gunnery officer (whenever possible) to carry into practice the concentration of the larger force on the lesser and to adapt his methods, cost what it may, to meet the requirements of the case; he cannot afford to flout a fundamental principle for the sake of simplifying the technique of his profession. ”

“ It is, for instance, not uncommon when combatant vessels are separated by some 8 or 10 miles, for destroyers and torpedo boats to be told off to create clouds of smoke, by which the difficulties of observation may be indefinitely increased. It is probable, in fact it is almost certain, that in the future the aeroplane will come to the rescue of naval gunnery, just as it is already employed in co-operation with long range artillery on land. ”

“ It is to be understood that after the range has been found as accurately as possible by the, instrument known as a range-finder, the final corrections are made by firing salvos, each salvo being observed, and an appropriate correction given. When the range has been thus determined, firing by salvos may be discontinued and independent firing resorted to, the main advantage of the latter being an increased rapidity of fire. If it be observed that the firing is becoming wild, that is to say, if the range has been lost, firing by salvos may be resumed. ”

“ It has already been pointed out that the capacity of aircraft to warn merchantmen of danger will alone be sufficient to render the submarine threat quite ineffective, apart from any question of destroying the craft themselves. ”

“ Once the captured territory has been organised and the necessary preparations have been made, the attack would be repeated, and, presuming the continued supremacy of our air fleets, no resistance or defence by the enemy of a permanent character can be sustained. ”

“ It is of some interest to remark that in § 64 (originally published Nov. 6th, 1914) the suggestion is made of an attack by a "few squadrons" of aeroplanes as constituting a reasonably effective concentration; this is an almost exact forecast of the practice as it obtains to-day, since a "Squadron" may be taken as from 16 to 20 machines and in recent air raids it is reported that about 60 or 70 machines have been employed. We may confidently look to a substantial numerical increase in the air raids of the future. ”

“ The magnitude of the aeronautical forces and establishment necessary to effect the present purpose must not be under-estimated. In order to prove a decisive factor the devastated zone will need to be of very great area, a belt of from 50 to 100 miles in width probably represents the minimum, and the destruction wrought over the said zone must be complete and thorough in every important respect. ”

“ If, by the nature of the attack, the period during which the air fleet is under fire is lessened by a numerical increase, there is a gain to an extent proportional to the reduction of time the defending batteries can be brought to bear. ”

“ Beyond the above, a submarine or submarines tracked by aircraft will have great difficulty in keeping a prearranged rendezvous, and any "neutral" vessel or fishing craft used for fuel supply and revictualling will be far more liable to detection than is at present the case. ”

“ In any case the gain is clear, as for example if 10 machines can do in a given time 10 times the mischief of one machine, and if this is done at the same average total loss it is done 10 times as economically. In other words, if a given weight of bombs have to be dropped and this be done by 10 separately attacking aeroplanes, the protecting batteries will be able to "get off" a 10 times greater number of shells than if the attack were planned and executed by the 10 machines simultaneously. ”

“ In this manner a virtually impassable zone would be created in the rear of the enemy's defences, a zone varying, perhaps, from 100 to 200 miles in width. Once this condition has been brought about, the position of the defending force must be considered as precarious; not only will the defence be slowly strangled from the uncertainty and lack of supplies of all kinds, but ultimately retreat will become impossible. ”

“ The author is inclined to believe that the tendency of the future will be towards machines of not too great size each dropping a comparatively few bombs, possibly no more than one large bomb being carried by each machine. ”

“ As an indication that the position has not been without difficulty, it may perhaps be mentioned that (contrary to what might be expected) it is not always permissible to reproduce matter which has already been published in the press; should it thus appear that the author has not taken full advantage of material already published elsewhere, it will be fair that he should be credited with an adequate reason. ”

“ Thus persecuted, it will be reduced to surface running by night, and even then, unless favoured by the elements, will be liable to attack by fast light cruisers or destroyers which will be informed with considerable exactitude as to the whereabouts of their quarry. ”