United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency

“ History in the area of natural hazard mitigation suggests that assignment of responsibility, even by the President, when not followed by leadership and regular oversight over the allocation of financial resources, seldom leads to programs which can be expected to function. The same weakness is evidenced at the State and local government levels with few exceptions. The stresses likely to occur in emergency response programs after a catastrophic earthquake will be such that effective response will require a cooperative, integrated effort among different jurisdictions and levels of government. ”

“ There is widespread public support for government action. Most people have some ideas as to what government should be doing. There is understanding of the need for hazard reduction as well as emergency response planning. [28] People are willing, in the abstract, to have government funds spent for hazard mitigation. The public is not very satisfied with what government officials have done. Public officials perceive that current preparedness plans and response are inadequate at best.
As discussed below, the review indicates that all is not well in earthquake plans and preparedness. ”

“ An earthquake of catastrophic magnitude, with or without credible warning, happens suddenly. The potential for disaster, however, does not occur suddenly. The degree of preparedness and commitment to comprehensive planning and mitigation programs for the inevitable event will largely determine the degree of hardship to be experienced through loss of life, human suffering, property destruction, and the other related economic, social, and psychological aspects of disruption to day-to-day community activities. ”

“ The emergency services coordinator at any level of government is effective only to the extent he or she is backed by the political leadership at that level. This is especially true when preparedness activities must be done, for the most part, within existing resources. City and county officials must increasingly accept their share of the responsibility for preparedness, but commitment by State or Federal leaders is also essential. The general tendency among elected officials and the public is to ignore the existing hazard problem. ”

“ Both Federal and State agencies need to commit the financial resources and assignment of personnel to maintain and enhance earthquake plans and preparedness. Earthquake preparedness, although responding to high damage expectation, is still based upon a relatively low probability occurrence. When it is in competition with pressing social needs for a portion of limited resources, social needs tend to prevail at all levels of government. Without a clear commitment, future development of earthquake preparedness, as in the past, is problematic and its implementation is in considerable doubt. ”

“ An additional element of uncertainty in estimating casualties from earthquake stems from not knowing where most of the population will be at the time of the earthquake. In the early morning (i.e., 2:30 a.m.) most people are at home, by far the safest environment during a seismic emergency. At 2:00 in the afternoon, on [23] the other hand, the majority of people are at their places of employment and therefore vulnerable to collapse of office buildings. Around 4:30 p.m. many more people are in the streets and thus subject to injury due to falling debris or failures of transportation systems. ”

“ Preparedness must be developed as a partnership between Federal, State, and local governments with improvements needed at all levels, as none have the resources or authorities to solve the problem alone.
Issue: Since the Nation faces a very probable earthquake in California sometime during the next 30 years, FEMA should provide the necessary leadership, management, and coordination required to strengthen planning and preparedness within the Federal Government, as delegated under the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program of 1977 and the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. ”

“ A major deficiency that has been identified is the potential for delay following a catastrophic earthquake in processing a request for a Presidential declaration of a major disaster, and the subsequent initiation of full-scale Federal support for lifesaving actions. The first few hours are critical in saving the lives of people trapped in collapsed buildings; consequently, this is when Federal support is needed most. Decisions on post-event recovery aspects of Federal assistance can be deferred until lifesaving operations are underway and sufficient information about damage is in hand. ”

“ An emergency, as used in this report, is defined as an unexpected, sudden or out-of-the-ordinary event or series of events adversely affecting lives and property which, because of its magnitude, cannot be handled by normal governmental processes. ”

“ The basic plan establishes the authority, sets forth references, addresses hazard vulnerability, states the planning assumptions, establishes an emergency services organization, assigns tasks, formulates a mutual aid system, and directs the development of specific support annexes. For those hazards identified in the basic plan, a separate contingency plan is then developed to address the unique nature of the hazardous event. The contingency plan contains service support plans for each of the functional operations, including detailed standard operating procedures. ”

“ Injuries serious enough to require hospitalization under normal circumstances are estimated to be about four times as great as fatalities. For the less likely prospect of a Richter magnitude 7.5 earthquake on the Newport-Inglewood fault in the immediate Los Angeles area, fatalities are estimated to be about 4,000 to 23,000, at the same respective times. Such an earthquake, despite its smaller magnitude, would be more destructive because of its relative proximity to the most heavily developed regions; however, the probability of this event is estimated to be only about 0.1 percent per year. ”

“ The highest loss of life due to earthquakes in the United States occurred in San Francisco in 1906, when 700 people were killed. By way of comparison (in spite of the vast differences in building design and practices and socioeconomic systems) the devastating 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China caused fatalities ranging from the official Chinese Government figure of 242,000 to unofficial estimates as high as 700,000. Fortunately, building practices in the United States preclude such a massive loss of life. ”

“ Each involved element of the emergency organization details its response actions in Service Support Plans and itemizes functions appropriate to the specific contingency. The contingency plans, service support plans, and related checklists and standard operating procedures constitute the "operational" portions of the overall emergency plan. They address internal procedures to accomplish stated objectives and document, in advance, the specific organizational elements that will respond to each type of disaster or "need," with identification of procedures and resources. ”

“ Damage to multifamily dwellings—particularly older buildings—would, in all likelihood, be more extensive. Analysis of expected damage indicates that temporary housing for as many as 200,000 families might be needed—a requirement calling for careful planning and exceptional management skills.
Schools are judged to be among the safest facilities exposed to the earthquakes. Since passage of the Field Act in 1933, after the Long Beach earthquake, school buildings in California have been continuously improved to withstand seismic hazards. ”

“ This increased demand overloads the capability of the system, even if it had not been damaged, and therefore management action to reduce the availability of service to non-priority users and to accommodate emergency calls is mandatory. Radio-based communication systems, particularly those not requiring commercial power, are relatively safe from damage, although some must be anticipated. The redundancy of existing communication systems, including those designed for emergency use, means that some capability for communicating with the affected region from the outside would almost surely exist. ”

“ Activities are directed toward a very diffuse set of goals, just as human resources within the community are inadequately utilized. Upon disaster impact, certain community goals—care for victims and the restoration of essential services—develop a high priority while others are ignored or held in abeyance. Thus, the entire range of community resources, even taking into account "losses," can be allocated to the accomplishment of the more critical goals. Also, human resources are better utilized. Many women, older persons, younger persons, and members of minorities now become "productive;" ”

“ The possibility of a credible, scientifically-based prediction of a catastrophic earthquake poses serious challenges to government and our society. The current level of scientific understanding of earthquake prediction and the available resources are such that present instrumentation efforts are directed toward research rather than maintaining extensive monitoring networks for real-time prediction. ”

“ The written plans also serve valuable purposes for training and familiarization of new organizations, individuals, and public officials. Experience has shown repeatedly that when emergency operations are conducted in accordance with existing plans, reaction time is reduced and coordination improved, with fewer casualties, less property damage, and a higher surviving socioeconomic capability to undertake recovery. Other benefits that accrue from planning include the enhancement of hazard awareness. ”

“ The widespread sharing of danger, loss, and deprivation produces an intimate cooperativeness among the survivors, which overcomes social isolation and provides a channel for very close communication and expression and a major source of physical and emotional support and reassurance. ”

“ Certain agencies such as the Corps of Engineers and the Federal Highway Administration, which provide services and support that are used on a regular and fairly extensive basis in disaster, tend to have more highly developed disaster response plans. Some of them even have rather basic earthquake response segments included in their basic plans. ”

“ Federal, State, and local emergency response capabilities are judged to be adequate for moderate earthquakes—those that are most likely to occur frequently in California and cause property damage in the range of $1 billion. ”

“ Experience in past earthquakes, particularly the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, has demonstrated the potential vulnerability of commercial telephone service to earthquakes, including the possibility of damage to switching facilities from ground shaking and rupture of underground cables that cross faults. This is especially serious because immediately following earthquakes, public demand for telephone services increases drastically. ”

“ For the most probable catastrophic earthquake—a Richter magnitude 8+ earthquake similar to that of 1857, which occurred along the Southern San Andreas fault—estimates of fatalities range from about 3,000, if the earthquake were to occur at 2:30 a.m. when the population is relatively safe at home, to more than 13,000, if the earthquake were to occur at 4:30 p.m. on a weekday, when much of the population is either in office buildings or on the streets. ”

“ CHAPTER VToC AN ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIAL IMPACTS
Often, it is assumed that disasters leave masses of the population in the impacted areas dazed and helpless and unable to cope with the new conditions, or that those not so immobilized panic or display antisocial behavior. Another common assumption is that local communities and organizations are rendered ineffective to handle the many problems, leading to further disorganization, loss of morale, and requiring the quick assertion of "strong" outside leadership and control. ”

“ Along the Southern San Andreas fault, some 30 miles from Los Angeles, for example, geologists can demonstrate that at least eight major earthquakes have occurred in the past 1,200 years with an average spacing in time of 140 years, plus or minus 30 years. The last such event occurred in 1857. Based on these statistics and other geophysical observations, geologists estimate that the probability for the recurrence of a similar earthquake is currently as large as 2 to 5 percent per year and greater than 50 percent in the next 30 years. ”

“ Estimates of property loss and casualties are based on the expected type and distribution of damage for each postulated earthquake as determined by the size and location of the earthquake and the distribution and character of the buildings and structures within the affected area. ”

“ The uncertainty is so large that the estimated impacts could be off by a factor of two or three, either too high or too low. Even if these lowest estimates prevail, however, the assessment about preparedness and the capability to respond to the disasters discussed in this report would be substantially unchanged.
Assuming a catastrophic earthquake, a variety of secondary problems could also be expected. Search and rescue operations—requiring heavy equipment to move debris—would be needed to free people trapped in collapsed buildings. ”

“ To be successful, such planning must be accomplished within the framework of the day-to-day governmental structure and activity but at the same time provide for response to the extraordinary circumstances and requirements inherent in disaster situations. ”

“ For example, several buildings of the kind commonly used for light industry or warehouses suffered from collapsed roofs or walls. Generally, building codes do not apply to special industrial facilities, and the ability of these structures to resist earthquake shaking will depend largely on the foresight of the design engineer. ”