The decline in fertility: A measure of civilization or a sign of decay?

“ The birth rate has been steadily decreasing in all civilized countries, and most rapidly in the countries that are regarded as the most civilized, but at the same time the death rate has been decreasing nearly in same proportion, so that the increase of population per thousand inhabitants has remained nearly stationary in recent decades. ”

“ The statistics of all civilized nations show a gradual and progressive decline in the birth-rate much more marked of recent years. In Germany, between the years 1875 and 1899, it has diminished from 40 to 35.9 per thousand of the population. ”

“ But whatever the causes of the declining birth-rate it is certain that even when they are within our control they are of far too intimate a character for the public moralist to be permitted to touch them, even though we consider them to be in a disastrous state. It has to be recognized that we are here in the presence, not of a merely local or temporary tendency which might be shaken off with an effort, but of a great fundamental law of civilization; and the fact that we encounter it in our own race merely means that we are reaching a fairly high stage of civilization. ”

“ We have here pushed as far as need be the analysis of that declining birth-rate which has caused so much anxiety to those amongst us who can only see narrowly and see superficially. We have found that, properly understood, there is nothing in it to evoke our pessimism. On the contrary, we have seen that, in the opinion of the most distinguished authorities, the energy with which we move in our present direction, through the exercise of an ever finer economy in life, may be regarded as a "measure of civilization" in the important sphere of vital statistics. ”

“ The whole tendency of civilization is to reduce the birth-rate. We may go further, and assert with the distinguished German economist, Roscher, that the chief cause of the superiority of a highly civilized state over lower stages of civilization is precisely a greater degree of forethought and self-control in marriage {157}and child-bearing. Instead of talking about Race Suicide, we should do well to observe at what an appalling rate, even yet, the population is increasing ”

“ With every rise in civilization, indeed with all evolutionary progress whatever, there is what seems to be an automatic fall in the birth-rate. That fall is always normally accompanied by a fall in the death-rate, so that a low birth-rate frequently means a{201} high rate of natural increase, since most of the children born survive. ”

“ Civilizational progress is here on a line with biological progress. The lower organisms spawn their progeny in thousands, the higher mammals produce but one or two at a time. The higher the race, the fewer the offspring.
"Thus diminution in quantity is throughout associated with augmentation in quality. Quality rather than quantity is the racial ideal now set before us, and it is an ideal which, as we are beginning to learn, it is possible to cultivate, both individually and socially. That is why the new science of eugenics or racial hygiene is acquiring so immense an importance. ”

“ For it is evident that the appalling slaughter of all but a few of the individuals born, which one usually associates with the idea of natural selection, will take place only when the number of individuals born is very large. As the reproductive rate decreases, so does the death-rate, for a larger proportion of those born are able to find food and to escape enemies. ”

“ The most striking of these phenomena was the declining birth-rate which affected nearly all the white nations toward the close of the nineteenth century and which in France resulted in a virtually stationary population.
Of course the mere fact of a lessened birth-rate, taken by itself, is not the unmixed evil which many persons assume. Man’s potential reproductive capacity, like that of all other species, is very great. In fact, the whole course of biological progress has been marked by a steady checking of that reproductive exuberance which ran riot at the beginning of life on earth. ”

“ This impulse has gained strength also from the great and almost universal decline in the birth rate. Old countries like France, and new countries like Australia, are confronted with the specter of depopulation. Consequently, as human life becomes scarce, it becomes precious—like any other commodity! These two facts, the consciousness that much mortality is preventable, or at any rate postponable and the fact that increasingly fewer babies are being born in the world, are together operating to produce a great health movement throughout the world. ”

“ The most ominous sign is the diminution in the birth-rate, in the rate of natural increase, now to a larger or lesser degree shared by most of the civilized nations of Central and Western Europe, of America and Australia; a diminution so great that if it continues for the next century at the rate which has obtained for the last twenty-five years, all the more highly civilized peoples will be stationary or else have begun to go backward in population, while many of them will have already gone very far backward. ”

“ Mill, they hold population, not wealth, learning, civilization, nor virtue, to be the strength of a nation; they believe that numbers decide the rise and fall of empires, and that, as Nature works the extinction of her doomed races by infecundity, and as the decline of a people’s destiny is first detected in the [384] diminution of its census, so they look upon the celestial promises of prolificity made to the patriarchs of old as the highest temporal blessing. ”

“ My contention is that the primary cause of our falling birth-rate is over-civilisation; one of the most evil products of this over-civilisation, whereby simple, natural, and unselfish ideals, based on the assumption that national security depends on the moral and economic strength of family life, have been replaced largely by a complicated, artificial, and luxurious individualism; and that diminished fertility, apart from the practice of artificial birth control, is a result of luxurious individualism. ”

“ That is an old story, but it is startling to learn, as President Roosevelt tells us, that the native-born American population is actually declining.
“One of the main causes, no doubt, is the determined pursuit of pleasure by all classes. The man will not take the burden of providing for a family, or, at any [Pg 62] rate, a large family, upon himself, because that would mean a curtailment of his luxuries, perhaps even his necessities, while the woman refuses to spend all the prime of her life in child-bearing and child-rearing. ”

“ We touch here upon the intricate problem of decadence and degeneration; the fact that the annual birth-rate in many countries or parts of countries has been falling in recent years, the fact that changes in the development of the birth-rate are experienced very often and often very suddenly, these facts, I say, force every thinking man to abstain from general indictments and condemnations. ”

“ Civilization means the victory of man over nature, in the interest of the greatest good to the greatest number. Culture is the pursuit of happiness of humanity. Progress means the advance towards a higher and higher level of humanity’s well-being. Commerce, industry, art and science must enhance the welfare of human society. Social ends cannot be served unless they tend to the gratification of the desire for happiness. In all dreams of a future utopia, human welfare and happiness is the goal. ”

“ Clearly, he who would prove that the birth rate is in the main determined in a manner different from the results of conduct in general assumes a heavy burden. Professor Marshall says:
In the animal and vegetable world the growth of numbers is governed by the tendency of individuals to propagate their species on the one hand, and on the other hand by the struggle for life which thins out the young before they arrive at maturity. In the human race alone the conflict of these two opposing forces is complicated by other influences. ”

“ Herbert Spencer is the champion of the biological explanation of a decreasing birth-rate.
With the intellectual progress of the race there is a decadence of sexual instinct. In proportion as an individual concentrates his energies and attention on his own mental development, does the instinct to, and power of, generation decrease. ”

“ Nevertheless a fall in the birth-rate is a factor in organic progress, and, in general, the level of any species is in inverse proportion to its birth-rate, from bacteria to the most civilised classes of men in the most civilised countries of to-day. ”

“ Wherever are gathered together an exceedingly fine race of people, the flower of the race, individuals of the highest mental and moral distinction, there the birth-rate falls steadily. Vice or virtue alike avails nothing in this field; with high civilization fertility inevitably diminishes. ”

“ The physiology of reproduction in man, particularly with reference to human fecundity and fertility.
The progressive decline of the birth-rate in all, or nearly all, civilized countries is an obvious and impressive fact. Equally obvious and much more disturbing is the fact that this decline is differential. Generally it is true that those racial stocks which by common agreement are of high, if not the highest value, to the state or nation, are precisely the ones where the decline in reproduction rate has been most marked. ”

“ It is thus clear that the birth-rate combined with the death-rate constitutes a delicate instrument for the measurement of civilisation, and that the record of these combined curves registers the upward or downward course of every nation. The curves, as we know, tend to be parallel, and when they are not parallel we are in the presence of a rare and abnormal state of things which is usually temporary or transitional. ”

“ Social progress, and a higher civilization, we thus see, involve a reduced birth-rate and a reduced death-rate. The fewer the children born, the fewer the risks of death, disease, and misery to the children that are born. The fact that civilization involves small families is clearly shown by the tendency of the educated and upper social classes to have small families. ”

“ Even from the point of view of quantity, the future supply of "food for powder," and so forth, the question is not how many babies are born, as people persist in thinking, but how many babies survive. For seven years past I have been preaching, in season and out of season, that our Bishops and popular vaticinators in general are utterly wrong in bewailing the falling birth-rate, whilst the unnecessary slaughter of babies and children stares them in the face. How dare they ask for more babies to be similarly slain! ”

“ The general effect upon women is the useless suffering inflicted upon them, and one of the chief causes of this is undoubtedly excessive childbearing. This evil is directly due to those semi-civilised notions which were touched upon above, and though, as we shall see when we deal with the decline of the birth-rate, nature is taking her own way of reacting against it, it still exists. ”

“ The means of accomplishing these goals will vary from country to country, but all should keep in mind that sustainable economic growth and equitable access to resources ate two of more certain routes towards lower fertility rates.
6. Giving people the means to choose the size of their families is not just a method of keeping population in balance with resources; it is a way of assuring – especially for women the basic human right of self-determination. The extent to which facilities tot exercising such choices are made available is itself a measure of a nation's development. ”

“ Those countries which in general possess a more thriving population, such as Saxony, England, Belgium, Prussia, etc., exhibit a smaller excess of male births when compared with those countries in which a more widespread poverty exists, such as Russia, Lombardy, Bohemia, and even France. ”

“ Birth control Material changes have taken place in the birth-rate of a number of countries during the past fifteen or twenty years which cannot be attributed to purely economic causes. They do not seem to depend on such things as trade, employment and prices; but on the spread of an idea or influence whose tendency must be deplored, that of "birth control," a phrase much heard in these days.
The fact that a decline in human fertility and a falling birth rate are most noticeable in the relatively prosperous countries is a proof that it does not proceed from economic causes ”

“ It is not difficult to see a bearing of these facts on the birth-rate. The civilized world is becoming a world of towns, and, while the diminished birth-rate of towns is certainly not mainly the result of impaired vitality, these phenomena are correlative facts of the first importance for [181] every country which is using up its rural population and becoming a land of cities. ”

“ It is sometimes said, indeed, that the decline of the birthrate is not entirely due to the voluntary control of procreation. It is undoubtedly true that certain other elements, common under civilized conditions, such as the postponement of marriage in women to a comparatively late age, tend to diminish the size of the family. ”

“ The falling birth-rate, which, it must be remembered, is affecting all civilised countries, should be a matter for joy rather than for grief.
But we need not therefore fold our hands and do nothing. There is still much to be effected for the protection of Motherhood and the better care of children. We cannot, and should not, attempt to increase the number of children. ”

“ You have been deploring the decrease in the birth-rate in your country, apparently because it places you, as regards population, in an inferior position to other countries, the inhabitants of which may at some time become your enemies. Yet, at the same time, you have told us that a very large number of your people are living in poverty and misery, that the population is too numerous for work to be found for all, and that many, being unable to find a living in their own country, have gone out, or been sent out, to distant lands. ”

“ Descent of Man,
page 140.
We must remember that progress is no invariable rule. It is very difficult to say why one civilized nation rises, becomes more powerful, and spreads more widely, than another; or why the same nation progresses more quickly at one time than at another. We can only say that it depends on an increase in the actual number of the population, on the number of the men endowed with high intellectual and moral faculties, as well as on their standard of excellence. Corporeal structure appears to have little influence, except so far as vigor of body leads to vigor of mind. ”

“ Lastly, I could show fight on natural selection having done and doing more for the progress of civilization than you seem inclined to admit. Remember what risk the nations of Europe ran, not so many centuries ago of being overwhelmed by the Turks, and how ridiculous such an idea now is! The more civilised so-called Caucasian races have beaten the Turkish hollow in the struggle for existence. Looking to the world at no very distant date, what an endless number of the lower races will have been eliminated by the higher civilized races throughout the world. ”

“ And in so explaining the cause of the declining birth-rate among native-born Americans, we have also found the principal reason for the differential nature of the decline in the nation at large, which is the feature that alarms the eugenist. The more intelligent and well-to-do part of the population has been able to get and use the needed information, and limit its birth-rate; the poor and ignorant has been less able to do so, and their rate of increase has therefore been more natural in a large percentage of cases. ”

“ Natural selection or the survival of the fittest raised us up from brutes, and civilization stops the operation of that law which made it possible. Blind charity preserves the rabbitries of stupidity—the differential birth rate snuffs out the flame of innate intelligence. ”

“ But to-day they have to recognise a vitality in the French which they had not expected, while in recent years, also, their own birth-rate has been falling more rapidly than that of France. Nor is it true that a falling birth-rate means a falling population; the French birth-rate has long been steadily falling, yet the French population has been steadily increasing all the time, though less rapidly than it would had not the death-rate been abnormally high. It is not the number of babies born that counts, but the net result in surviving children. An enormous number of babies are born in China ”

“ Nor has France since those early nineties allowed her birth rate to fall below her death rate.
The populations of European nations are increasing, because the death rates are falling faster than the birth rates.
If we subtract the deaths per thousand inhabitants, given in the second table, from the births per thousand inhabitants given in the first table, we shall have the natural rate of increase. In every single case the number of 52births is greater than the number of deaths—so every country is increasing in population. ”

“ Great as the increase of population is with which we have been dealing, there are indications that the rate of growth in the most recent census periods is less in many quarters than it formerly was, while there has been a corresponding decline in the birth-rates; and to some extent, though not to the same extent, in the rate of the excess of births over deaths, which is the critical rate of course in a question of the increase of population. ”

“ The birth rate itself has not remained constant, but in the last thirty years has materially diminished in nearly all civilized lands, so that in reality the decline in death rate is far greater than can be indicated by mere change in the absolute or proportional excess of births. ”

“ It is a fact that everywhere the birth rate of the Caucasian people is on the decline. Our birth [17] rate as a whole, however, is ample; it is the death rate that is significant and appalling. When we remember that one-third of all the babies born die before they reach the age of five years; and that the deaths of babies under one year of age comprise about one-fourth of the total death-roll; and that fully one-half of all these deaths are needless and unnecessary, wherein is the wisdom of working for a higher birth rate if it is merely that more may die? ”

“ We cry out upon our women for the falling birth rate;—why not say something about the death rate of their babies? The average family must have four, merely to maintain a stationary population, said Grant Allen; "two to replace themselves and two to die." The doctor will tell you that they die mostly of what are called "preventable diseases" and that those diseases are mainly of the alimentary canal.
Kitchen-fed are we all, and those of us who survive it, who become immune to it, cry loudly of its excellence! ”

“ But, in point of fact, a vast number of babies and children are unnecessarily slain, and if we could suddenly arrest the whole of this slaughter, the increase of population would become so formidable that everyone would deplore the unmanageable height of the birth-rate. Its present fall is quite incapable of arrest, and is perfectly compatible313 with as rapid an increase of population as any one could desire. ”

“ Those looking for success and signs of hope can find many: infant mortality is falling; human life expectancy is increasing; the proportion of the world's adults who can read and write is climbing; the proportion of children starting school is rising; and global food production increases faster than the population grows.
6. But the same processes that have produced these gains have given rise to trends that the planet and its people cannot long bear. These have traditionally been divided into failures of "development" and failures in the management of our human environment. ”

“ Migration and international trade in food and fuels eased the pressure on local resources. They permitted and helped sustain the high population densities of some industrialized countries.
9. The situation is different in most of the developing world. Tiers, improvements in medicine and public health have led to a sharp drop in mortality rates and have accelerated population growth rates to unprecedented levels. But fertility rates remain high; much human potential remains unrealized, and economic development is stalled. ”

“ The progress of civilization is in the direction of greater foresight, of greater prevention, of a diminished need for struggling with the reckless lack of prevision. The necessity for abortion is precisely one of those results of reckless action which civilization tends to diminish. While we may admit that in a sounder state of civilization a few cases might still occur when the induction of abortion would be desirable, it seems probable that the number of such cases will decrease rather than increase. ”

“ Many people have the insolence to become parents who have no right to aspire to that dignity; children are born who have no right to exist; and skill preserves many whom nature is eager to destroy. Civilized man, too, has learned the trick of heading off some of the diseases that used to sweep over whole regions of the earth, and lay low the weakliest tenth of the population. ”

“ The other is that doubt of any divine intention in development, in history, which we call progress from age to age.
In the eyes of this latter infidelity history is not a procession or a progression, but only a series of disconnected pictures, each little era rounded with its own growth, fruitage, and decay, a series of incidents or experiments, without even the string of a far-reaching purpose to connect them. There is no intention of progress in it all. The race is barbarous, and then it changes to civilized; in the one case the strong rob the weak by brute force ”

“ Page 269 In the words of a well-known student of the development of human culture:
Progress, degradation, survival, modification, are all modes of the connection that binds together the complex network of civilization. It needs but a glance into the trivial details of our own daily life to set us thinking how far we are really its originators, and how far but the transmitters and modifiers of the results of long past ages. Looking round the rooms we live in, we may try here how far he who knows only his own time can be capable of rightly comprehending even that. ”

“ The acceleration of population growth in tits Third World and the decline in fertility levels in Industrial countries are changing age distribution patterns radically. In developing countries, the young predominate. In 1980, 39 per cent of developing, country populations were younger than 15; the figure for industrialized countries was only 23 per cent. [4] Yet in these countries, the proportion of the elderly is qrowing. Those 65 or older accounted for 11 percent of the population in 1980; in developing countries, they represented only 4 per cent. ”

“ If a plague carried off the members of a society all at once, it is obvious that the group would be permanently done for. Yet the death of each of its constituent members is as certain as if an epidemic took them all at once. But the graded difference in age, the fact that some are born as some die, makes possible through transmission of ideas and practices the constant reweaving of the social fabric. Yet this renewal is not automatic. Unless pains are taken to see that genuine and thorough transmission takes place, the most civilized group will relapse into barbarism and then into savagery. ”

“ The willingness to co-operate. One of the great hindrances to the progress of human society is the conflict between the interests and welfare of the larger, more socialized human groups and of the smaller, contrary-minded asocial associations of mankind, not to mention antisocially-minded single individuals.
No national civilization long endures unless its educational methods and religious ideals inspire a high type of intelligent patriotism and national devotion. ”