The two faces of fate: How drought and flood govern human history and societal collapse

“ Is it not strange that the great forces which are so terribly destructive when let loose in all their strength are the most beneficial and useful to mankind? We could not exist more than a few days without water, yet floods destroy each year millions of dollars worth of property and thousands of lives. ”

“ We know, moreover, that the time-binding energies of our remote ancestors were hampered and baulked, in a measure too vast for our imaginations, by immense geologic and climatic changes, both sudden and secular, unforeseen and irresistible—by earthquake and storm, by age-long seasons of flood and frost and heat and drought, not only destroying both natural resources and the slowly accumulated products of by-gone generations but often extinguishing the people themselves with the centers and abodes of struggling civilization. ”

“ A drought or a destructive rain is therefore to be feared by any government, especially if there be malcontents to make use of it. There was quite a severe drought in Asisi last summer, and loud and deep were the imprecations we heard against the government. As the vines withered and the corn shrank, so withered and shrank the king and his ministers in the esteem of these poor people. ”

“ Protection against natural disasters Lack of preparedness, often aggravated by lack of data, means that droughts and floods take a huge toll in deaths, misery and economic loss. Economic losses from natural disasters, including floods and droughts, increased three-fold between the 1960s and the 1980s. ”

“ The recent crisis in Africa best and most tragically illustrates that ways in which economics and ecology can interact destructively and trip into disaster. Triggered by drought, its real causes lie deeper. ”

“ A terrible drought has fallen upon the land, and the prophet's picture of it is, if one might say so, like some of Dante's in its realism, in its tenderness, and in its terror. In the presence of a common calamity all distinctions of class have vanished, and the nobles send their little ones to the well, and they come back with empty vessels and drooping heads instead of with the gladness that used to be heard in the place of drawing of water. ”

“ We have not, from father to son, at the cost of our lives and properties, refrained from opposing the tyrannical acts of that Government in defence of our country, which is dearer to us than our lives. But during the last year or two it has taken advantage of a famine caused by a drought with which the Almighty visited us, as well as by its own ravages, and it has occasioned us 352 great distress by its severe attacks by sea and land. Many are the lives which have been lost in battle, from hunger in the mountains, from destitution on the sea-coast, and from want of skill at sea. ”

“ It will be seen at once what a soil the demagogue has for sowing dragons’ teeth, and what frightful popular commotion may be stirred up by playing upon the fears of the populace. The most recent illustration of this is seen in the frightful massacre of the ministers and the Japanese, in July, 1882. The long drought having ruined the rice crop, the leaders of the anti-foreign faction persuaded the common people that the spirits were annoyed at the introduction of foreigners, and therefore withheld the rain. ”

“ The droughts yielded no harvests, and no harvests were followed by pestilence, famine, and death. Now, for three years no rain has fallen on the blistered fields, and a nation apparently is dying. The very first drought was the kindly warning of Heaven against the violation of natural laws. Men were too heedless or too ignorant to accept it; and the sins of the fathers are to-day visited on the children, not in the vengeance of an awful Power, but in the discipline of relentless law. Is not this a Providence so scrutable that he who runs may read? ”

“ Some settlements perhaps were near water sources long since overwhelmed by drifting sand. Prolonged drought often was the primary reason for moving. The hostilities of other tribes would drive a people from a location not easily defended. The failure of grain crops or of other nutritive or medicinal plants would generally be considered a sign from the gods that the place was accursed. Any prolonged disaster, whether it were drought, or flood or disease, was usually attributed by the Pueblos to witchcraft. ”

“ So through centuries the gradual destruction of the wood brought ever-increasing drought, and drought led in its train famine, disease and wholesale death. The people were decimated and discouraged, and on the northern frontier began to be at the mercy of savage raiders. They fled from their pleasant valley-homes to hide in caves and dens of the earth, and built the cliff-dwellings. ”

“ So in just about 35 years the percent of the Earth that had drought has doubled. That alone should tell us what the stakes are. We know what drought leads to. It leads to poverty and hunger and starvation and death and darkness.
We know it from our recent history, the catastrophic storms and flooding, Katrina being an example of that; changes in habitat that threaten species and the potential of a mini ice age in northern Europe if melting ice sheets disrupt ocean currents; major ecological changes translating into major sociopolitical changes. ”

“ With becoming awe at what seems to have been unpreventable, it is sadly appropriate to inquire what might have been done in past years to lessen the recurrent tragedy of the western floods. To be sure, one cannot by a gesture bid the tempest stand, but nothing is more demon [Pg 149] strable than that the greed and neglect of man have greatly contributed to the destructiveness of floods. ”

“ The victims of economic wrongs due to cupidity and indifference outnumber a thousand to one the victims of natural causes beyond control. All the deaths in these fearful floods are less than those caused every year in a single large city by conditions that might be remedied. ”

“ Great districts once populous, and powerful as populous, have been almost converted into deserts, some of them quite into deserts, and their people diminished in numbers and in power, as the result of a wanton destruction of their forests. France and other European countries have been swept by disastrous floods, or rent by torrents rushing down their mountain-slopes, and carrying masses of rock and gravel into the valleys and plains below, because the forests which would have held the floods in check have been recklessly consumed ”

“ It is very probable that the extraordinary drought, which is the chief obstacle now to agriculture in the Crimea and in these regions generally, has been greatly increased by the disappearance of the forests of central and southern Russia, which formerly to some extent protected the coast-provinces from the parching northeast wind. ”

“ Together with the leafy mosses disappear the useful reservoirs which stored up rain and dew for times of drought. Thus arises a disastrous dryness of the ground, which prevents the growth of any rich vegetation. In the greater part of Southern Europe—in Greece, Italy, Sicily, and Spain—mosses have been destroyed by the inconsiderate extirpation of forests, and the ground has thereby been robbed of its most useful stores of moisture; once flourishing and rich tracts of land have been changed into dry and barren wastes. ”

“ His subject leads him to consider much at large the denudation of mountains, which has caused and is causing such calamitous mischief in Italy and the south of France. He shows very convincingly and interestingly that the destruction of forests causes not only floods in winter and spring, but drought in summer and autumn. And the efforts which have recently been made in Italy to take some steps towards the reclothing of the mountain sides, have in great measure been due to his work, which has been largely circulated in an Italian translation. ”

“ The cutting of the forests, especially from the steeper mountain slopes, has in many parts of the world changed water, one of Nature's most valuable gifts, into an agent of destruction. Throughout the Eastern and Southern states the floods are higher in spring and lower in summer than they used to be, because of the removal of so large a part of the forests that once covered this whole region. ”

“ When the rains fall upon the open, unwooded country, unless it is of a quite level character, they flow off at once into the beds of the neighboring streams, and pour their united flood into the larger rivers, swelling their volume rapidly to such an extent that their waters can not be confined within their banks, but break out and overspread the adjacent lands, carrying destruction oftentimes to the growing crops, covering fertile fields with masses of gravel and rubbish of various sorts, interfering with manufacturing interests, and often destroying life itself. ”

“ Within the last hundred years that process of degeneration has been hastened by two incidental afflictions—spring floods and summer droughts. The rapid increase of population has driven home-seekers into the highlands of the far west, and the destruction of land-protecting forests avenged itself in the usual manner. Every heavy snowfall in the mountains became a menace to the settlers of the lowlands ”

“ They also signify a rapid destruction of our immense forests from the face of the earth, enormous prices for lumber to future generations, and possible floods to devastate our river bottoms, and drouths to scourge the highlands. ”

“ The flatness of the land, in conjunction with the heavy rainfall and the melting mountain snows, often brought floods in early spring. Even before the forests were cut away the rivers frequently overflowed their banks, spreading desolation and destruction over the lowlands; and with the conversion of more and more land to agriculture, the threat of floods proportionately increased, so that the farmer came to look with apprehension at lowering clouds and the steady fall of the rain. ”

“ This reckless policy of securing additional land regardless of consequences has greatly contributed to the more frequent occurrence of the very widespread inundations resulting from the bursting of the vast volume of pent-up flood-waters through breaches in the banks, which descend with torrential violence upon the plains below, causing great destruction of life and property. ”

“ It is a misconception that droughts cause desertification. Droughts are common in arid and semiarid lands. Well-managed lands can recover from drought when the rains return. Continued land abuse during droughts, however, increases land degradation. By 1973, the drought that began in 1968 in the Sahel of West Africa and the land-use practices there had caused the deaths of more than 100,000 people and 12 million cattle, as well as the disruption of social organizations from villages to the national level. ”

“ But there is something greater in its tragedy than all this—something greater than a great region where splendid cities, towns and humble villages alike are without resource—something greater than a region of broken dams and embankments and of placid rivers gone mad in flood, bridgeless, uncontrollable, widened into lakes, into seas. It is the hundreds of dead who died a hideous death, and the hundreds of thousands of living who are left helpless and homeless, and all but hopeless. ”

“ But as soon as the cruel tempest of war cometh on us, good Lord, how great a flood of mischiefs occupieth, overfloweth, and drowneth all together. The fair herds of beasts are driven away, the goodly corn is trodden down and destroyed, the good husbandmen are slain, the villages are burned up, the most wealthy cities, that have flourished so many winters, with that one storm are overthrown, destroyed, and brought to naught: so much readier and prompter men are to do hurt than good. ”

“ We could have saved more, but many were afraid to let go the debris. It was an awful sight. The immense volume of water was roaring along, whirling over huge rocks, dashing against the banks and leaping high in the air, and this seething flood was strewn with timber, trunks of trees, parts of houses, and hundreds of human beings, cattle and almost every animal.
“The fearful peril of the living was not more awful than the horror of hundreds of distorted, bleeding corpses whirling along the avalanche of death. ”

“ We know from past experiences that the overflow of our rivers and streams have resulted in washing away not only a great deal of rich and fertile soil, thereby injuring the lands of our farmers, but that these floods have destroyed crops running into millions of dollars in value and brought destruction and ruin to hundreds of our most worthy citizens. ”

“ So water is all that is needed to bring forth fresh masses of nourishment from the soil.
Hardly a year passes in which not one or the other of the German states and provinces is ravaged by floods. Large tracts of the most fertile land are carried away by the force of the water; others are littered with stones, sand and rubbish, and are made unfertile for years to come. Entire orchards that have required decades to be grown are uprooted. Houses, bridges, streets and dams are washed away, railroads are ruined and human lives [413] are sacrificed, flocks perish and crops are destroyed. ”

“ The roaring and wailing of the turbid flood now seemed to be repeating in cruel mockery the despairing cries of all the drowning people who were ever the prey of the water-fiends that draw downward in whirlpools to depths where twilight passes into darkness, and take the form of the long waving weeds that look so innocent, but whose grasp is deadly, or guide the current that utters never a sound as it seizes its victim and bears him into an unfathomed gulf under the pitiless rock. ”

“ Fancy alone can picture the horrors that must have crept on the unfortunate man, as, amidst the impenetrable darkness which now prevailed, he became aware of the continued increase of the flood that roared around him, by its gradual advance towards his feet, whilst the rain and the tempest continued to beat more and more dreadfully upon him. ”

“ In our land a flood is a disaster causing loss and sorrow; in this country it is a blessing producing wealth and joy. When the slowly rising waters [Pg 339] each year reach the figures on the stone column of the Nilometer which show that the Nile has spread abroad his fertile bounty by covering the cultivable lands, and has filled the dams and ditches for future needs, the news is spread abroad and the people rejoice with festivities and processions. ”

“ In America we know how disastrous spring floods frequently become, but here the overflow is violent, tearing down bridges and embankments, bringing injury rather than benefit to the land. In Egypt the rise of the Nile is gradual; dwellings are built on elevations of land or on the outskirts of the valley.
Without the yearly inundation there would be no food to maintain the dense population of the country.
During the period of high water the Nile is heavily loaded with mud. When the river recedes, this fertile silt is left upon the surface of the land. ”

“ They who do not know Egypt might think so indeed, but the peasants know that to that yearly flood they owe the fertility of the land, that it is that which makes the crops grow and enables them to gather in the harvest. So it is with the river of the grace of God: the waters at times overflow their banks, and one seems to be overwhelmed; the soul is borne down by the flood, all her fruitful land is covered by the waters—waters of desolation, bereavement, affliction. ”

“ VERY country is confronted with a serious problem in its great rivers. In some lands the only problem is, how to get rid of flood-water as quickly as possible: in others, comes the additional question of securing sufficient water for irrigation during the dry season. Egypt occupies an anomalous position, the latter question being the only one of any practical interest. Without rains, she depends on the rise of the Nile for her existence, and no one dreams of such a thing as endeavoring to check the overflow. ”

“ However, in process of time, as the land rises both at the sides of the river and the parts more remote from it where they have attained the utmost level of the floods, recourse must be had to art to irrigate the lands, otherwise their fertility and cultivation must cease, as the quantity of rainfall in the lower valley of the Nile, as it passes through Egypt, is comparatively trifling; in fact, the fertility of the country depends almost entirely upon the floods. ”

“ When a drought breaks up, sudden floods come down the rivers, destroying the dams and bridges, sweeping away houses, and often drowning men and animals. It is quite plain that we cannot say water is always useful; it is often so hurtful as to ruin and drown people. All that we can really say is that water is useful when and where we want it, and in such quantity as we want, and not otherwise. ”

“ To store the Euphrates water for the season of drought and great heat, they formed canals which carried the roaring flood into two depressions in the western desert between the modern towns of Kerbela and Rama ̇di. These depressions are utilized for the British irrigation scheme. The Babylonians did their utmost to control the Tigris by erecting earthen dams so as to hold up as much of the water as possible. Earthen dykes were also erected to raise its banks. The right bank protected the farms from disastrous flooding. ”

“ In Russia, if common report may be believed, it is not long since the peasants of any district that chanced to be afflicted with drought used to dig up the corpse of some one who had drunk himself to death and sink it in the nearest swamp or lake, fully persuaded that this would ensure the fall of the needed rain. In 1868 the prospect of a bad harvest, caused by a prolonged drought, induced the inhabitants of a village in the Tarashchansk district to dig up the body of a Raskolnik, or Dissenter, who had died in the preceding December. ”

“ These wretched souls, therefore, do all in their power to prevent the rain from falling, and often their efforts are only too successful. Then drought ensues, the most dreaded of all calamities in China, because bad harvests, dearth, and famine follow in its train. Hence it has been a common practice of the Chinese authorities in time of drought to inter the dry bones of the unburied dead for the purpose of putting an end to the scourge and conjuring down the rain. ”

“ This was the Fijian deluge. There are traditions of great floods within historical times. One of them, about 1793, purged the land of the great Lila epidemic. The waters rose over the housetops; hundreds were swept away, and the silt left by the receding waters raised the alluvial flats of the Rewa river several feet, a statement that is borne out by the fact that a network of mangrove roots underlies the alluvial soil at a depth of four or five feet. This flood was preceded by a great cyclone. Traditions of great floods are preserved by almost every primitive people. ”

“ This is quite an intelligible hypothesis, since we know from the facts of our own day, in the case of the Yellow River in China, what an enormous destruction of human life may be caused by river floods bursting in upon low, flat plains thickly peopled. But this hypothesis fails to give any adequate explanation of the universality—or nearly so—of the tradition of a great flood among all branches of the human race. ”

“ In all these flood stories of Greece we cannot doubt that the tradition of a cataclysm fatal to the whole of humanity—a tradition common to all Aryan peoples—was mixed up, as Knobel rightly observes, more or less precisely with local catastrophes produced by extraordinary overflows of lakes or rivers, or the rupture of their natural [Pg 483] embankments, the sinking of some portions of the sea-coast, or tidal waves consequent upon earthquakes or sudden upheavals of the ocean bed. ”

“ They were likely born of something in nature visible to all nations. The idea of a universal flood, produced by a god to drown the world on account of the sins of the people, is infinitely absurd. The solution of all these stories has been supposed to be, the existence of partial floods in most countries ”

“ The alleged object of the flood, namely, the destruction of the human race, may then well have been accomplished by submergence limited to central and western Asia, from which I have brought much new evidence going to show that at a very recent geological period, indeed since man's existence, there have been such changes of land level as render it easier than before to credit the existence of a great fact underneath the widespread traditions concerning a deluge in which the last remnants of the human race, except those saved by special arrangement, were destroyed. ”

“ As great districts were seen to be depopulated by these catastrophies, might not some even more violent cataclysm of the same kind actually destroy all mankind, with the animals and plants, in the comparatively small area then known as 'the world'? The great flood, of which all these nations appear to have retained traditions, was regarded as only the last of such destructive cataclysms; and, in this way, there originated the myth of successive destructions of the face of the earth, each followed by the creation of new stocks of plants and animals. ”

“ If mines must be worked and towns built in arid regions, let promoters of these schemes be required to build aqueducts and bore wells sufficient in advance to supply the needed water, not waiting until droughts come and the people die. Every place on this globe has its rainy years and its dry years. Areas of cold and heat, wind and calm, rain and drought, appear and move and disappear in irregular succession. We must prepare for them and provide against disaster. We can not control the weather, but we may control ourselves.
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CONVERSION ”