Warren T. Vaughan

“ There is no reason for supposing that the virus of measles is controlled in any way by our calendar. In order to get anywhere in determining any law of periodicity in epidemics we must know the morbidity and mortality of the disease by days, or at least by weeks. In different parts of a large city there may be, and undoubtedly are, epidemic waves of measles on the flow or on the ebb at the same time. The best work that has been done along this line is that of Brownlee, who has figured out epidemic waves of measles, based on the weekly numbers of deaths in London between 1840 and 1912. ”

“ In 1890, Abbott wrote: “There is but little if any evidence in support of the protective power of one attack to confer immunity against a second; and hence adults are not exempt, as they usually are in epidemics of scarlet fever or other exanthemata; so that the proportion of adults to children attacked in an epidemic is necessarily greater than that which is observed in epidemics of other infectious diseases.” ”

“ But if we take as our starting point the time at which each epidemic became prevalent in commercial centers of Europe and the time at which it finally reached localities well off the usual paths of commerce we will see that there is some difference, the disease spreading more rapidly in the recent epidemic, but that the difference is no greater than could be accounted for by the more modern means of communication. ”

“ Like the aviator flying over enemy territory he acquires a breadth of vision and a general perspective which is to a great extent denied to those remaining on the ground. But also like the aviator, from the very fact of his high position he loses the ability to recognize detail. ”

“ There are, so far as we know, nowhere in the world satisfactory statistics concerning morbidity in this disease. Deaths from measles are so largely determined by the care bestowed upon the sick and upon the extent to which secondary infection is prevented that we are inclined to hesitate about the acceptance of a death rate or number of deaths from this disease as an index to the virulence of the organism causing the disease; in other words, we are not convinced that the death rate in a given outbreak of this disease is a measure of the virulence of the organism causing it. ”

“ The rapid rise to a peak, almost explosive in character, more characteristic of this disease than of any other, is to be explained by the high degree of invasiveness of the organism, by the short period of incubation, by the fact that many of the sick continue at their work, thus spreading the disease, and by the non-immunity of large masses of people, together with the fact that the transmission of a respiratory infection is accomplished much more easily than is any other type of infection. ”

“ As a rule the virulence does not become so great as to cause a true pandemic, but at rare intervals, usually of decades, or thereabouts, the epidemic virus becomes so greatly enhanced, perhaps from passage to new territory and through non-immune individuals, that it eventually commences on its wild career around the earth. ”

“ The outstanding fact which strikes one at once from this table is the high order of the correlation which exists between the explosiveness of the outbreak of epidemic mortality in these communities and the normal death rate from certain causes of death in the same communities. ”

“ I have no doubt that a historian who during the 1918 epidemic of influenza might have limited his observations entirely to the disease as it occurred at Camp Sherman, Ohio, and who saw 125 robust soldiers dying each day, would have truly written that the disease killed off the soldiers murderously. ”

“ We are accustomed to think of measles as a disease which, like meningitis, is disseminated throughout the civilized world, and which although constantly with us causes only sporadic cases. True epidemics of measles do occur, even when there is no gross change in the constitution of the population. We have discussed examples of this particularly in London. Flare-ups of measles prevalence are in fact so much the rule that in certain localities health officers anticipate a measles epidemic about once in two years. ”

“ Influenza is described as a disease with distinctive epidemiologic characteristics, the chief of which are found only in epidemic spreads. Thus one of the fundamental characteristics of these epidemics is supposed to be the primary type of wave, the wave characterized by rapid rise, quasi-symmetrical evolution, and a concentration closely grouped around the maximum. “This is found in no other disease. In no other type of epidemic does the curve rise as rapidly to a peak or fall as swiftly, nor is the epidemic completed in as short a time.” ”

“ That alterations in environment may be the determining cause in initiating an outbreak of bacterial disease is probable enough; but they will almost certainly act through the variations which they bring about in the other two factors. The whole of bacteriologic knowledge is clearly against the occurrence of a considerable epidemic in which the pathogenicity of the parasite and the resistance of the host remain constant. ”

“ Thomas Sydenham remarks that in the epidemic of 1675 no one escaped, whatever might be his age or temperament, and the disease ran throughout whole families at once.
Molineux recorded concerning 1693, “All conditions of persons were attacked, those residing in the country as well as those in the city; those who lived in the fresh air and those who kept to their rooms; those who were very strong and hardy were taken in the same manner as the weak and spoiled; men, women and children, persons of all ranks and stations in life, the youngest as well as the oldest.” ”

“ There are many instances on record in which influenza has passed by small towns in its onward course to attack a larger city and only at some later date has the small town, not on the main line of communication, been affected. Not only is the speed of transportation between two communities of importance, but also the volume of the transportation undoubtedly plays a part in the rapidity of development in a second locality. When the disease is carried by a vessel the first places to be attacked are the seaports and the coast towns, be the land a continent or an island. ”

“ These illustrations indicate that so-called natural law does not stand in the way of our having highly virulent types of disease, if we are ignorant enough to cultivate them. The microorganism is sufficiently plastic to shape itself for an upward as well as a downward movement. Among the most formidable of the obstacles toward a steady decline of mortality is the continual movement of individuals and masses from one part of the world to another, whereby the partly adapted parasites become planted as it were into new soil and the original equilibrium destroyed. ”

“ Any comparison of race morbidity or mortality, to be of value, must be based on observations of individuals living in the same climate, in the same domestic environment, and in similar age distribution. It is practically impossible to discover groups living under such conditions. Howard and Love, perhaps, approached more nearly to such an ideal in studying the white and black races in the Army, but even in the military forces many factors are at play. Thus, the death rate among enlisted men was highest among the American troops in the United States (12.02) ”

“ Up to the present time we have discovered no one characteristic by which we may say that a case or an epidemic is positively influenza. We have had to rely on the general symptomatology, which indeed is sufficiently characteristic, although so nearly like the symptoms of certain other diseases as to make us hesitate to make an absolute diagnosis, and on the epidemic characteristics. The necessity of an absolute criterion in the clinical diagnosis is particularly felt in the presence of an isolated interepidemic case, or a small endemic outbreak. ”