William Petty

“ That London will be at its highest growth, and eight times as great as now, Anno 1800.Now, when the People of London shall come to be so near the People of all England, Then it follows, That the Growth of London must stop before the said Year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest height Anno 1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with above four Millions for the Service of the Countrey and Ports, as aforesaid. ”

“ Wherefore, as an Expedient against the above-mentioned difference between 10 and 1200 Years, we do for the present, and in this Countrey admit of 360 Years to be the time wherein the People of England do double, according to the present Laws and Practice of Marriages. ”

“ And those who cannot find Work (though able and willing to perform it) by reason of the unequal application of Hands to Lands, ought to be provided for by the Magistrate and Land-Lord till that can be done; for there needs be no Beggars in Countries, where there are many Acres of unimproved improvable Land to every Head, as there are in England, As for Thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the same Cause; For it is against Nature, that any Man should venture his Life, Limb, or Liberty, for a wretched Livelyhood, whereas moderate Labour will produce a better. ”

“ The other Supposition is, That the City of London is but a seventh part of its present bigness, and that the Inhabitants of it are but 96 Thousand, and that the rest of the Inhabitants (being 7 Millions 304 Thousand) do Co-habit thus, 104 Thousand of them in small Cities and Towns, and that the rest, being seven Millions 200 Thousand, do Inhabit in Houses not contiguous to one another, viz. in 1200 Thousand Houses, having about 24 Acres of Ground belonging to each of them, accounting about 28 Millions of Acres to be in the whole Territory of England, Wales, and the adjacent Islands ”

“ On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less Number, as 100 Years, the World would have been over-peopled 700 Years since. Wherefore, no one Number will solve the Phænomena, and therefore we have supposed several in Order to make the following Table, which we again desire Historians to Correct, according to what they find in Antiquity concerning the Number of the People in each Age and Countrey of the World. ”

“ As to Intestine Parties and Factions, I suppose that 4 Millions 690 Thousand People United within this great |34| City, could easily Govern half the said Number scattered without it, and that a few Men in Arms within the said City, and Wall, could also easily Govern the rest unarmed, or Armed in such manner as the Soveraign shall think fit.⁠3. ”

“ The Gain which England makes by Lead, Coals, the Freight of Shipping, &c. may be the same, for ought I see, in both Cases. But the Gain which is made by Manufactures, will be greater, as the Manufacture it self is greater and better. For in so vast |37| a City Manufactures will beget one another, and each Manufacture will be divided into as many parts as possible, whereby the Work of each Artisan will be simple and easie ”

“ Whether it be best to lessen or enlarge the present City? In Order whereunto we enquire (as to the first Question) which |33| state is most Defensible against Forraign Powers, saying, that if the above-mentioned Housing, and a border of Ground, of 3 quarters of a Mile broad, were encompassed with a Wall and Ditch of 20 Miles about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a Million, or about a Penny in the shilling of the House-Rent for one Year) what Foraign Prince could bring an Army from beyond Seas, able to beat,⁠1. ”

“ For the Plagues of England in 20 Years hath carried away scarce an Eightieth part of the People of the whole Nation; and the late 10 Years Civil Wars, (the like whereof hath not been in several Ages before) did not take away |16| above a fortieth part of the whole people.)
According to which Account or Measure of doubling, if there be now in England and Wales, 7 Millions 400 Thousand People, there were about 5 Millions 526 Thousand in the beginning of Queen Elizabeths Reign, Anno 1560. ”

“ If the Number of Acres in the Habitable part of the Earth, be under |45| 50 Thousand Millions; if Twenty Thousand Millions of People, are more than the said Number of Acres will feed; (few or no Countries being so fully Peopled;) and for that in six doublings (which will be in 2000 Years) the present 320 Millions will exceed the said 20 Thousand Millions. ”

“ Now, if there may be place for five times as many Graves in Ireland, as sufficient for all that ever |47| dyed; And if the Earth of one Grave weigh five times as much as the Body Interrd therein, then a Turf, less than a Foot thick, pared off from a fifth part of the surface of Ireland, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all the Bodies that ever were Buried ”

“ Till a better Rule can be obtained, we conceive that the Proportion |7| of the People may be sufficiently Measured by the Proportion of the Burials in such Years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary Healthfulness or Sickliness. ”

“ THE scope of this Essay, is concerning People and Colonies, and to make way for Another Essay concerning the Growth of the City of London. I desire in this first Essay to give the World some light concerning the Numbers of People in England, with Wales, and in Ireland; as also, of the || number of Houses, and Families, wherein they live, and of Acres they occupy.
2. How many live upon their Lands, how many upon their Personal Estates, and Comerce, and how many upon Art, and Labour ”

“ First, as to Practicable, we say, That although our said Extravagant Proposals are both in Nature possible, yet it is not Obvious to every Man to conceive, how London, now seven times bigger than in the beginning of Queen Elizabeths Reign, should be seven times bigger than now it is, |31| and 49 times bigger than Anno 1560. ”

“ We also say, That 669930 is near the Number of People now in London, because the Burials are 22331. which Multiplyed by 30, (one dying Yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94 pag. of the afore-mentioned Observations [16] maketh the said Number; and because there are 84 Thousand Tenanted Houses (as we are Credibly Informed [17] ) which, at 8 in each, makes 672 Thousand Souls; the said two Accounts differing inconsiderably from each other.
We have thus pretty well found out in what Number of Years (viz. in about 40,) The People of London are about the Eleventh part of all England and Wales. ”

“ For that by some late Observations, the Teeming Females between 15 and 44, are about 180 of the said 600, and the Males of between 18 and 59, are about 180 also, and that every Teeming Woman can bear a Child |14| once in two Years; from all which it is plain, that the Births may be 90. (and abating 15 for Sickness, Young Abortions, and Natural Barrenness) there may remain 75 Births, which is an Eighth of the People ”

“ Acre sufficient to furnish Bread and Drink-Corn for every Head, and two Acres will furnish Hay for every Necessary Horse; And that the Trees which may grow in the Hedge-rows of the |32| Fields within the said Circle, may furnish Timber for 600 Thousand Houses.⁠3. That all live Cattel and great Animals can bring themselves to the said City ”

“ Man and Wife might be truly return'd: and at that rate, the Total at the foot of the account for the Province of Canterbury is 2,228,386, the which according to the forementioned currant Rule of Calculation to be necessarily about doubled on account of the people under 16, makes the Total of the Souls in that Province to be 4 Millions 4 Hundred 56 thousand, 7 hundred seventy two ”

“ Graunt says that "about one in 33 dies." But in the Index (p. 333) is the statement, with reference to page 93, that "at London one of thirty" dies yearly. ↑ Probably by the makers of Ogilby and Morgan's map; cf. a note to Five Essays below. ↑ By 31 Charles II., c. 1. (1679) , the last assessment before Petty wrote, London paid £2145 15s. 8d., Middlesex, including Westminster, £1520 5s., Surrey, including Southwark £798 10s. ”