Frederick William Lanchester

“ It is well thus to call attention to the variations in the conditions and the nature of the resulting departure from the conclusions of theory; such variations are far less common in naval than in military warfare; the individual unit—the ship—is always the gunner's mark. When we come to deal with aircraft, we shall find the conditions in this respect more closely resemble those that obtain in the Navy than in the Army; the enemy's aircraft individually rather than collectively is the air-gunner's mark, and the law herein laid down will be applicable. ”

“ With modern long-range weapons—fire-arms, in brief—the concentration of superior numbers gives an immediate superiority in the active combatant ranks, and the numerically inferior force finds itself under a far heavier fire, man for man, than it is able to return. ”

“ Thus, so long as an aeroplane approaches any position at medium or high altitude, it may be clearly seen at some few miles distance, and measures will be taken to give it an appropriate reception; whereas a machine making its approach at low altitude would frequently be able to take the enemy quite by surprise. Beyond this it has been found that, except for reconnaissance, high altitude is not altogether advantageous. A certain amount of harm may be done by bomb-dropping, machine-gun fire, the raining of steel darts, etc. ”

“ But the defence of modern arms is indirect: tersely, the enemy is prevented from killing you by your killing him first, and the fighting is essentially collective. As a consequence of this diff"erence, the importance of concentration in history has been by no means a constant quantity. Under the old conditions it was not possible by any strategic plan or tactical manoeuvre to bring other than approximately equal numbers of men into the actual fighting line; one man would ordinarily find himself opposed to one man. ”

“ It is evident that the conditions in the broad field of military operations correspond in kind, if not in degree, to the earlier hypothesis, and that the law deduced therefrom, that the fighting strength of a force can be represented by the square of its numerical strength, does, in its essence, represent an important truth. ”

“ Beyond this, the aeroplane carries armour and presents a comparatively small vulnerable target. The advantage of extreme low-altitude flying in the present connection lies in the fact that it is, in effect, a perfect defence against attack by long-range fire. No matter what developments may be made in air-defence artillery—even if means should be found to render an 18-pounder as handy as a sportsman's shot-gun—if the attacking aeroplane fly low enough, the enemy cannot bring long-range fire to bear without bringing his own infantry lines under fire at the same time. ”

“ There are many who will be inclined to cavil at any mathematical or semi-mathematical treatment of the present subject, on the ground that with so many unknown factors, such as the morale or leadership of the men, the unaccounted merits or demerits of the weapons, and the still more unknown "chances of war," it is ridiculous to pretend to calculate anything. ”

“ Assuming the proved accuracy of the Lewis gun as the criterion of machine-gun fire, it is evident that an estimate of the effectiveness of low-altitude aeroplane attack becomes little more than a matter of simple arithmetic. We may take, for example, the problem to be that of executing a counter-attack upon infantry, themselves attacking a position in open order, the counter-attack to be delivered against the foremost line, lying prone at two or three paces interval. ”

“ At an altitude of 500 ft, an aeroplane still makes a very clear mark against the sky, visible from a considerable distance. By following the contour of the ground, never rising more than 100 ft, or 200 ft., unless to clear an obstacle not otherwise to be avoided, an attack will be made with comparative suddenness, and the machine will be gone out of sight almost before there has been time to bring a gun to bear. ”

“ It is only necessary clearly to admit that in this form of fighting we may have to reckon with serious losses of men and machines, not occasional losses, as at present, but rather such as can be expressed as a percentage of the force engaged. ”

“ The Future of the Fighting Type of Aeroplane. A reservation has already been made to the effect that low-altitude flying —i.e. under 2,000 ft.—as affecting the service use of the aeroplane, lies mainly with the future; the design of the machine for this class of work will require the most careful study on the lines already indicated, the essential point being immunity to attack by small-arm fire. In obtaining such immunity sacrifice of some kind will have to be made. ”

“ Evidently it is the business of a numerically superior force to come to close quarters, or, at least, to get within decisive range as rapidly as possible, in order that the concentration may tell to advantage. As an extreme case, let us imagine a "Blue" force of 100 men armed with the machine gun opposed by a Red" 1,200 men armed with the ordinary service rifle. ”

“ The basic assumption is that the fire of each force is definitely concentrated on the opposing force. Thus the enemy will concentrate on the one machine-gun operator the fire that would otherwise be distributed over four riflemen, and so on an average he will only last for one quarter the time, and at sixteen times the efficiency during his short life he will only be able to do the work of four riflemen in lieu of sixteen, as one might easily have supposed. ”

“ The degree of accuracy attainable in firing with a machine-gun from an aeroplane depends primarily upon the weapon and the man, as in every other kind of shooting, but in addition the steadiness of the aeroplane is an important factor, this being mainly dependent upon the wind and weather. Under favourable conditions an expert shot using the Lewis gun has delivered the whole contents of a magazine (of 47 cartridges capacity) into an area 10 ft, by 60 ft, from an altitude of 600 ft, at a range of 1,000 yards. ”

“ The importance of concentration in the material sense is based on certain elementary principles connected with the means of attack and defence, and if we are properly to appreciate the value and importance of concentration in this sense, we must not fix our attention too closely upon the bare fact of concentration, but rather upon the underlying principles, and seek a more solid foundation in the study of the controlling factors. ”

“ Whatever economies are effected in armour^ the main principle must not be lost sight of—i.e., the thickness must not be tampered with; armour too thin for its duty is worse than canvas or brown paper.
Once the altitude has been brought down to 500 ft.—that is to say, if and when it is recognised as advantageous and found possible to utilise such low altitudes in aeroplane tactics—it becomes a question whether it will not be found to pay to "go the whole hog" and fly at the very lowest altitude possible. ”

“ Thus, also, in wooded country, in the reconnaissance that accompanies or precedes an army on the march, it would seem probable that the aeroplane and cavalry will be used in conjuction, the more distant work being accomplished by the aeroplane, whose presence would also ensure the protection of the cavalry from hostile aircraft. The detail work, including the holding of bridges and advance positions of importance, also the location of and dealing with any patrols or other bodies of the enemy that may be encountered, will be accomplished by the cavalry. ”

“ Even when under fire it will have a certain tactical advantage in the fact that it will be attacking a line [2] parallel to which it is flying—it need never miss its target—whereas it itself offers the worst kind of mark to the enemy, combining small size, high speed, disconcertingly short range, in addition to which it is, in effect, a disappearing target. ”

“ The main point is that in the new Arm we have a force altogether transcending the cavalry in mobility and range of observation, and which before long will become an actual fighting force of no mean importance, and these facts cannot fail to be revolutionary in their ultimate influence on the rôle and employment of the cavalry Arm. ”

“ His target may appear as blurred as the side of a railway cutting viewed from the window of an express train, but so long as he "delivers the goods" within the belt of ground intended, his average hits will not be detrimentally affected. If he is shot at by the infantry line he is attacking, or by a supporting line (usually 300 yards, more or less, in the rear) , every man attacking him breaks his cover, and becomes a prominent mark for the defending infantry force. ”

“ The Machine-Gun in the Service of the Aeronautical Arm. Rapidity of fire to the aeronautical gunner is a matter of first importance; the time during which he has the enemy under fire is necessarily brief, and in that time he must do the maximum injury possible; consequently amongst present existing weapons we may regard the machine-gun as without rival. ”

“ It might prove of enormous and overwhelming value if at any critical moment, or at any critical point, it were possible to let loose a few squadrons of aeroplanes each mounting one or more machine guns, to bring short-range concentrated fire to bear, or alternatively to make an attack by the aid of bombs or hand-grenades. ”

“ Taking, first, the ancient conditions where man is opposed to man, then, assuming the combatants to be of equal fighting value, and other conditions equal, clearly, on an average, as many of the "duels" that go to make up the whole fight will go one way as the other, and there will be about equal numbers killed of the forces engaged ”

“ It has often been noticed by the writer, and it is probably a matter of common observation, that an aeroplane, however visible it may be with the sky as background, is readily lost to sight and becomes exceedingly difficult to pick out when backed by a hill or a mountain-side. This is the case with a machine finished "bright;" [1] when machines are given protective colouring, as is now customary, the difficulty of detecting their presence when below the sky-line will be far greater. ”

“ M db/dt = N dr/dt or the rate of loss is independent of the numbers engaged, and is directly as the efficiency of the weapons. Under these conditions the fighting strength of the forces is directly proportional to their numerical strength; there is no direct value in concentration, qua concentration, and the advantage of rapid fire is relatively great. ”

“ It may be at once admitted that all the dangers of flying, qua flying, will be thereby increased, but danger of the degree in question is a matter of little or no consideration in actual warfare. Briefly, the immediate suggestion is that if low-altitude flying is systematically to be undertaken, it should be conducted quite low—dangerously low, according ta ordinary standards. ”

“ Then the "Red" force will lose 16 men to the "Blue" force loss of one, and, if the combat is continued under these conditions, the "Reds" must lose. If, however, the "Reds" advance, and get within short range, where each man and gunner is an individual mark, the tables are turned, the previous equation and conditions apply, and, even if "Reds" lose half their effective in gaining the new position, with 600 men remaining they are masters of the situation ”

“ We are justified in assuming that the magazines will be emptied over an area defined as a belt of 10 ft, or 12 ft, width, in which, therefore, there is one man to approximately 100 sq. ft, of ground under fire. ”

“ The answer to this is simple: the direct numerical comparison of the forces engaging in conflict or available in the event of war is almost universal. It is a factor always carefully reckoned with by the various military authorities ”

“ This means eventually either a reduction in the speed or a positive all-round increase in the size and weight of the machine. Granted that all initial difficulties be overcome, the advent of the armed and armoured low-altitude machine will initiate a new phase of aeroplane tactics, and one that cannot fail to have a far-reaching effect on the other Arms of the Service. The difficulties of cavalry operations will be increased incalculably ”

“ Fig. 4; the battle is prolonged indefinitely. Since the forces actually consist of a finite number of finite units (instead of an infinite number of infinitesimal units) , the end of the curve must show discontinuity, and break off abruptly when the last man is reached; the law based on averages evidently does not hold rigidly when the numbers become small. Beyond this, the condition of two equal curves is unstable, and any advantage secured by either side will tend to augment.
§ 23. Graph representing Weakness of a Divided Force. ”

“ Whether it be in the armour-plating of vitals, or in the provision of redundant members or material, a great deal of otherwise unnecessary weight must needs be carried which ultimately reduces the carrying power in other directions. ”