John Maynard Keynes

“ When times are bad and poverty presses on them they sink back again into a weary acquiescence. Great Britain and all Europe have learned this in 1921. Was not the French Revolution rather due perhaps to the growing wealth of eighteenth–century France—for at that time France was the richest country in the world—than to the pressure of taxation or the exactions of the old régime? It is the profiteer, not privation, that makes man shake his chains. ”

“ It is certain to have a profound effect on world thought. It is a deep analysis of the economic structure of Europe at the outbreak of the war, a brilliant characterisation of the Peace Conference, a revealing analysis of the shortcomings of the Treaty, a dissection of the reparation claims, done with the scientific spirit and steadiness of hand of a great surgeon, a vision of Europe after the Treaty, which is the most illuminating picture that has yet been made of the immediate situation on the Continent, and, finally, constructive remedial proposals. ”

“ Yet if my contention about this can be substantiated, the world will find it easier to arrange a practical settlement. The claims of justice in this connection are generally thought to be opposed to those of possibility, so that even if the pressure of events drives us reluctantly to admit that the latter must prevail, the former will rest unsatisfied. If, on the other hand, restricting ourselves to the devastations in France and Belgium, we can demonstrate that it is within the capacity of Germany to make full reparation, a harmony of sentiment and action can be established. ”

“ It is because, gentlemen, we do not regard ourselves as free. We are not here to consider as a novel proposal what reparation the enemy should in justice pay; we have not before us a blank page upon which we are free to write what we will. We have before us a page, it is true; but one which is already filled with writing, and at the bottom are the signatures of Mr. Wilson, of Mr. Orlando, of M. Clemenceau, and of Mr. Lloyd George. You are all aware, I am sure, of the writing to which I refer: it is the agreed basis of peace with Germany. ”

“ The industries of the United States would suffer, not so much from the competition of cheap goods from the Allies in their endeavors to pay their debts, as from the inability of the Allies to purchase from America their usual proportion of her exports. The Allies would have to find the money to pay America, not so much by selling more as by buying less. The farmers of the United States would suffer more than the manufacturers; if only because increased imports can be kept out by a tariff, whilst there is no such easy way of stimulating diminished exports. ”

“ But I still urge on France that her cause may be served by accuracy and the avoidance of overstatement; that the damage she has suffered is more likely to be made good if the amount is possible than if it is impossible; and that, the more moderate her claims are, the more likely she is to win the support of the world in securing priority for them. M. Brenier, in particular, has conducted a widespread propaganda with the object of creating prejudice against my statistics. Yet to add a large number of noughts at the end of an estimate is not really an indication of nobility of mind. ”

“ If European bonds are issued in America on the analogy of the American bonds issued in Europe during the nineteenth century, the analogy will be a false one; because, taken in the aggregate, there is no natural increase, no real sinking fund, out of which they can be repaid. The interest will be furnished out of new loans, so long as these are obtainable, and the financial structure will mount always higher, until it is not worth while to maintain any longer the illusion that it has foundations. The unwillingness of American investors to buy European bonds is based on common sense. ”

“ It is not in international affairs that we can secure the sentimental satisfactions which we all love. For only individuals are good, and all nations are dishonorable, cruel, and designing. In deciding whether Italy (for example) must pay what she owes, America must consider the consequences of trying to make her pay,—so far as self–interest is concerned, in terms of economic equilibrium between America and Italy, and, so far as generosity is concerned, in terms of Italian peasants and their lives. ”

“ It is useless for the United States to suppose that an equilibrium position can be reached on the basis of her exporting at least as much as at present, and at the same time restricting her imports by a tariff. Just as the Allies demand vast payments from Germany, and then exercise their ingenuity to prevent her paying them, so the American Administration devises, with one hand, schemes for financing exports, and, with the other, tariffs which will make it as difficult as possible for such credits to be repaid. ”

“ The now familiar project of the cancelation, in part or in their entirety, of the Reparation and Inter–allied Debts, is a large and unavoidable feature of them. But those who are not prepared for these measures must not pretend to a serious interest in the Reconstruction of Europe.
In so far as such cancelation or abatement involves concessions by Great Britain, an Englishman can write without embarrassment and with some knowledge of the tendency of popular opinion in his own country. But where concessions by the United States are concerned he is in more difficulty. ”

“ I have spent much time over the French claim, because it is the largest, and because more particulars are available about it than about the claims of the other Allies. On the face of it, the Belgian claim is open to the same criticism as the French. But in this claim a larger part is played by levies on the civilian population and personal injuries to civilians. The material damage, however, was on a very much smaller scale than in France. Belgian industry is already working at its pre–war efficiency, and the amount of reconstruction still to be made good is not on a great scale. ”

“ Maynard Keynes predicted in his remarkable book is coming only too true. All over Europe the nations are standing to arms, thinking boundaries, while trade languishes, production stagnates, and credit lapses into the relativities. ”

“ The equilibrium of international trade is based on a complicated balance between the agriculture and the industries of the different countries of the world, and on a specialization by each in the employment of its labor and its capital. If one country is required to transfer to another without payment great quantities of goods, for which this equilibrium does not allow, the balance is destroyed. ”

“ To accelerate the redemption of the balance, Germany is ready to assist with all her resources in the reconstruction of the devastated territories. She considers reconstruction the most pressing part of reparation, [Pg 217] because it is the most effective way to combat the hatred and misery caused by the war. She is prepared to undertake, herself, the rebuilding of townships, villages, and hamlets, or to assist in the reconstruction with labour, material, and her other resources, in any way the Allies may desire. The cost of such labour and material she would pay herself. ”

“ There is a disposition in some quarters to insist that any concessions to France by Great Britain and the United States, affecting Reparation and Inter–Ally Debt, should be conditional on Franceʼs acceptance of a more pacific policy towards the rest of the world than that to which she herself appears to be inclined. I hope that France will abandon her opposition to proposals for reduced military and naval establishments. What a handicap her youth will suffer if she maintains conscription whilst her neighbors, voluntarily or [Pg 200] involuntarily, have abandoned it! ”

“ They know all this nearly as well as the critic, who wastes, in their view, his time and his emotions in exciting himself too much over what, on his own showing, cannot possibly happen. Nevertheless, what is said before the world is, still, of deeper consequence than the subterranean breathings and well–informed whisperings, knowledge of which allows inside opinion to feel superior to outside opinion, even at the moment of bowing to it. ”

“ The multitude which lives in the auditorium of the world needs something larger than life and plainer than the truth. Sound itself travels too slowly in this vast theater, and a true word no longer holds when its broken echoes have reached the furthest listener. ”

“ Allies, and raises the general issue of the utility of arrangements for securing that Germany should pay in kind rather than in cash, for other purposes than those of the devastated areas.
It is commonly believed that, if our demands on Germany are met by her delivering to us not cash but particular commodities selected by ourselves, we can thus avoid the competition of German products against our own in the markets of the world, which must result if we compel her to find foreign currency by selling goods abroad at whatever cut in price may be necessary to market them. ”

“ Great Britain lives by commerce, and most Englishmen now need but little persuading that she will gain more in honor, prestige, and wealth by employing a prudent generosity to preserve the equilibrium of commerce and the well–being of Europe, than by attempting to exact a hateful and crushing [Pg 194] tribute, whether from her victorious Allies or her defeated enemy.
The United States would forego on paper a capital sum of about 6500 million dollars, which, at 6 per cent, represents an annual charge of $390,000,000 (£78,000,000 gold) . ”

“ I have reserved above, out of the claims of Great Britain, a sum of one milliard gold marks, with the object, not that she should retain this sum for herself, but that she should use it to ease the financial problems of two states for which she has a certain responsibility, namely Austria and Poland.
Austriaʼs problems are well known and attract a general sympathy. The Viennese were not made for tragedy; the world feels that, and there is none so bitter as to wish ill to the city of Mozart. ”

“ If Germany were to make a strenuous effort to pay us by exploiting the only method open to her, namely, by selling as many goods as possible at low prices all over the world, it would not be long before many minds would represent this effort as a plot to ruin us; and persons of this way of thinking will be most easily won over, if we describe a reduction in our demands, as a prohibition to Germany against developing a nefarious competitive trade. ”

“ Lloyd George took the responsibility for a Treaty of Peace, which was not wise, which was partly impossible, and which endangered the life of Europe. He may defend himself by saying that he knew that it was not wise and was partly impossible and endangered the life of Europe; but that public passions and public ignorance play a part in the world of which [Pg 4] he who aspires to lead a democracy must take account; that the Peace of Versailles was the best momentary settlement which the demands of the mob and the characters of the chief actors conjoined to permit ”

“ So far, the Allies have not paid interest to the United States on what they owe. Our present troubles, when they are not attributable to the after–effects of war and the cyclical depression of trade, are due, therefore, not to the enforcement of these claims, but to the uncertainties of their possible enforcement. It follows, therefore, that merely to put off the problem will do us no good. That is what we have been doing for two years already. Even to reduce our Reparation demands to Germanyʼs maximum actual capacity and really force her to pay them, might make matters worse than they are. ”

“ Some time between February and August 1922 Germany will succumb to an inevitable default. This is the maximum extent of our breathing space. [44]
That is to say, in so far as she depends for payment (as in the long run she must do) on current income. If capital, non–recurrent resources become available, the above conclusion will require modification accordingly. Germany still has an important capital asset untouched—the property of her nationals now sequestered in the hands of the Enemy–Property Custodian in the United States, of which the value is rather more than 1 milliard gold marks. ”

“ It is clear, therefore, that, though raw materials other than coal, such as potash, sugar, and timber may yield a trifle, Germany can only compass an export trade of great value by exporting iron and steel goods, chemicals, dyes, textiles, and coal, for these are the only export articles of which she can produce great quantities. ”