John Venn

“ In speaking as above of events or things as to the details of which we know little or nothing, it is not of course implied that our ignorance about them is complete and universal, or, what comes to the same thing, that irregularity may be observed in all their qualities. ”

“ Attention is only directed here to the important inference that, although statistics are notoriously of no value unless they are in sufficient numbers, yet it does not follow but that in certain cases we may have too many of them. ”

“ ON CERTAIN KINDS OF GROUPS OR SERIES AS THE FOUNDATION OF PROBABILITY.
§ 1. It is sometimes not easy to give a clear definition of a science at the outset, so as to set its scope and province before the reader in a few words. In the case of those sciences which are more immediately and directly concerned with what are termed objects, rather than with what are termed processes, this difficulty is not indeed so serious. If the reader is already familiar with the objects, a simple reference to them will give him a tolerably accurate idea of the direction and nature of his studies. ”

“ When, as is often the case, we know nothing accurately of the circumstances by which the succession of events is brought about, but have strong reasons to suspect that these circumstances are likely to undergo some change, there is really nothing else to be done. We can only introduce the conception of a limit, towards which the numbers are tending, by assuming that these circumstances do not change; in other words, by substituting a series with a fixed uniformity for the actual one with the varying uniformity [4] . ”

“ With regard to all their other qualities there may be the utmost uniformity, and consequently the most complete certainty. The irregularity in the length of human life is notorious, but no one doubts the existence of such organs as a heart and brains in any person whom he happens to meet. And even in the qualities in which the irregularity is observed, there are often, indeed generally, positive limits within which it will be found to be confined. ”

“ In studying Nature, in any form, we are continually coming into possession of information which we sum up in general propositions. Now in very many cases these general propositions are neither more nor less certain and accurate than the details which they embrace and of which they are composed. ”

“ The larger the number we take out of any mixed crowd, the clearer become the symptoms of order, the more nearly will the average length of each selected class be the same. These few cases will serve as simple examples of a property of things which can be traced almost everywhere, to a greater or less extent, throughout the whole field of our experience. ”

“ We cannot tell in any given instance whether they will be found or not, but as we go on examining more cases we find a growing uniformity. We find that the proportion of instances in which they are found to instances in which they are wanting, is gradually subject to less and less comparative variation, and approaches continually towards some apparently fixed value. ”

“ No person, for instance, can calculate what may be the length of any particular life, but we feel perfectly certain that it will not stretch out to 150 years. The irregularity of the individual instances is only shown in certain respects, as e.g. the length of the life, and even in these respects it has its limits. ”

“ But take a thousand throws, and it becomes in turn exceedingly likely that there should be as much as, or more than, a difference of six between the respective numbers. On the other hand the proportion of heads to tails in the case of the thousand throws will be very much nearer to unity, in most cases, than when we only took ten. In other words, the longer a game of chance continues the larger are the spells and runs of luck in themselves, but the less their relative proportions to the whole amounts involved. ”

“ We find in this case that the heads and tails occur in about equal numbers, that similar repetitions of different faces do so also, and so on. In a word, notwithstanding the individual disorder, an aggregate order begins to prevail. So again if we are examining the length of human life, the different lives which fall under our notice compose a series presenting the same features. The length of a single life is familiarly uncertain, but the average duration of a batch of lives is becoming in an almost equal degree familiarly certain. ”

“ Let us suppose that we toss up a penny a great many times; the results of the successive throws may be conceived to form a series. The separate throws of this series seem to occur in utter disorder; it is this disorder which causes our uncertainty about them. Sometimes head comes, sometimes tail comes; sometimes there is a repetition of the same face, sometimes not. So long as we confine our observation to a few throws at a time, the series seems to be simply chaotic. But when we consider the result of a long succession we find a marked distinction ”

“ In many cases (for instance, the throws of a penny or a die) they really do occur in succession; in other cases (for instance, the heights of men, or the duration of their lives) , whatever may have been the order of their actual occurrence, they are commonly brought under our notice in succession by being arranged in statistical tables. In all cases alike our processes of inference involve the necessity of examining one after another of the members which compose the group, or at least of being prepared to do this, if we are to be in a position to justify our inferences. ”

“ The reader will now have in his mind the conception of a series or group of things or events, about the individuals of which we know but little, at least in certain respects, whilst we find a continually increasing uniformity as we take larger numbers under our notice. ”

“ I shall endeavour to show that even the few apparent exceptions, such as the proportions between male and female births, &c., may not be, and probably in reality are not, strictly speaking, exceptions. A type, that is, which shall be in the fullest sense of the words, persistent and invariable is scarcely to be found in nature. ”

“ There is a class of immediate inferences, almost unrecognized indeed in logic, but constantly drawn in practice, of which the characteristic is, that as they increase in particularity they diminish in certainty. ”

“ But when a science is concerned, not so much with objects directly, as with processes and laws, or when it takes for the subject of its enquiry some comparatively obscure feature drawn from phenomena which have little or nothing else in common, the difficulty of giving preliminary information becomes greater. ”

“ However many times head may be given in succession, the number of pounds I may claim is found by raising two to a power one less than that number of times. Here then is a series formed by a succession of throws. We will assume,—what many persons will consider to admit of demonstration, and what certainly experience confirms within considerable limits,— that the rarity of these ‘runs’ of the same face is in direct proportion to the amount I receive for them when they do occur. ”

“ The duration of life cannot but depend to some extent upon the general tastes, habits and employments of the people, that is upon the ideal which they consciously or unconsciously set before them, and he would be a rash man who should undertake to predict what this ideal will be some centuries hence. ”

“ It is true that the very rich hauls are extremely rare, but still they do come, and when they come they make it up by their greater richness. On every occasion on which people have devoted themselves to the pursuit in question, they made acquaintance, of course, with but a limited portion of this series; but the series on which we base our calculation is unlimited; and the inferences usually drawn as to the sum which ought in the long run to be paid for the privilege in question are in perfect accordance with this supposition. ”

“ But a very little consideration will show that there may be a superior as well as an inferior limit to the extent within which this uniformity can be observed; in other words whilst we may fall into error by taking too few instances we may also fail in our aim, though in a very different way and from quite different reasons, by taking too many. At the present time the average duration of life in England may be, say, forty years ”

“ If this be granted, it seems to follow that the fundamental principle of the Theory of Probabilities may be regarded as included in the following statement,—The conception of a genus implies that of numerical relations among the species subordinated to it.” As remarked above, this appears a substantially similar doctrine to that explained in this chapter, but I do not think that the terms genus and species are by any means so well fitted to bring out the conception of a tendency or limit as when we speak of a series, and I therefore much prefer the latter expression. ”

“ Probably not, because no man would see enough of the series to make it worth his while. What most persons form their practical opinion upon, is such small portions of the series as they have actually seen or can reasonably expect. Now in any such portion, say one which embraces 100 turns, the longest succession of heads would not amount on the average to more than seven or eight. This is observed, but it is forgotten that the formula which produced these, would, if it had greater scope, keep on producing better and better ones without any limit. ”

“ So in Probability; that uniformity which is found in the long run, and which presents so great a contrast to the individual disorder, though durable is not everlasting. Keep on watching it long enough, and it will be found almost invariably to fluctuate, and in time may prove as utterly irreducible to rule, and therefore as incapable of prediction, as the individual cases themselves. ”

“ A man proposes to stop short at a succession of ten heads. Well and good. We tell him that his average gain will be £5. 10s. 0d.: but we also impress upon him that in order to justify this statement he must commence to toss at least 1024 times, for in no less number can all the contingencies of gain and loss be exhibited and balanced. If he proposes to reach an average gain of £20, he will require to be prepared to go up to 39 throws. ”