Lewis S.C. Smythe

“ The drop of 9 points in the sex ratio since 1932 is accounted for in part by the withdrawal of males not native to Nanking but formerly working here, and in part by the killings of males in the critical period. Most serious is the acute fall in the ratio for the age-group 15 to 49 years, which roughly represents the productive life of the population; here the decline was from 124 to 111, or 11 per cent.
This change presents the fact that a large number of women and children are deprived of men who were the support of the family. ”

“ Among the city population remaining, all losses per family were $838, of which buildings accounted for $271, stock for sale $187, and domestic movables $276.
Total city losses divided among original families would run to $1,262, of which buildings counted for $527, stock for $377, and domestic movables $152.
It is not possible to compute the losses of farm and city in ratio to their respective total property values.
It seems, however, that the farmer's losses do not weigh so heavily against his major property, land; as do the city people's losses against their total property. ”

“ It seems justifiable to assume that the estimates of losses for the area studied need not be modified by consideration of the family migration, for they are calculated upon the average loss per family studied, times the original number of families.
Common observation in city and country alike is that absent families suffered in general more grievous losses than those watchful on the spot; whether by burning or by looting. ”

“ The loss of 40 per cent of all farm buildings is a critical blow at the farmer's capital, his standard of living, and his productive power.
Some families or parts of families have been delayed in their return to the land because of lack of housing; that means shortage of labor, lessened production, even further worsening through neglect or robbery in the farmer's absence. ”

“ Even in the city, however, tribute must be paid to a population, that could endure the experiences of December to March as the climax of a war period, and still have only 35 per cent securing food in part by relief whether through kitchens or through cash. ”

“ If political and military conditions do not provide better security, misery will continue and may increase.
Insecurity and misery have bred a large part of the present insecurity; and the vicious circle will not easily be broken without unified, vigorous, and enlightened government.
The comparison of the effects of the war upon the farms and upon the city suggests that in the Nanking region more of the cultivators will pull through ”

“ Moreover, the preservation and care of animals, implements, and stored crops is affected by deficiency of buildings.
In recent heavy rains, some farmers were unable to prevent their cut wheat from spoiling before threshing, and did not even have a place for improvised indoor threshing.
Working power is affected by shortage of laborers, of animals, and of implements.
Deficiency of laborers is due (1) to irremediable deaths and injuries and to such war migration as will not be reversed in a few months; (2) more largely, to personal insecurity, especially for women. ”

“ When we compare the groups of the employed, we find that those engaged in trade were two-thirds of the former number, but earnings were only 26 per cent of former earnings; those in agriculture, under one-half, with 27 per cent of former earnings; in domestic and personal service, under one-sixth, with 47 per cent of former income; in manufacturing and mechanical industries, under one-tenth, with 35 per cent of former income; in general labor, under one- eighth, but wages of those employed were 73 per cent of old wages. ”

“ For Ningshu, Lin says 70 to 80 per cent; (4) for the Yangtze Rice-wheat Area, Buck reports 62 per cent, and for Kiangning Hsien, (5) 92; for Kiangning, Ts'ui in his recent and close study, says 65 per cent. (6)
In general, the winter crop is followed by a summer crop on the same land; while the re-mainer of cultivated land grows a spring crop.
Thus, in use of land, the winter crops represent 40 or more per cent of all crops, and are a large factor in the farm economy as well as in food production for the whole community. ”

“ Probably some families who migrated early and to a considerable distance or to the relatively safer portions of Nanking, fared better than the rest.
On the other hand, the reason why some families migrated and did not return was simply because they or their accompanying neighbors had already experienced military murder and wounding and burning.
(1) . "Forty per cent of all people had to leave their homes, thirty-one per cent as families and nine per cent as individuals." The 1931 Flood in China, p, 27. ”

“ The total property loss of $838 per family is only equal to two year's income previous to hostilities.
The item on which exaggeration could have been most expected, in view of the extent of military looting that had taken place, was money.
Yet that is only $9.53 per family―less than what every family not on relief must have paid monthly for rice in order to survive. (See Table 9.)
APPENDIX B.
Migration op Whole Families
Its Possible Influence on Reports op Resident Population, Migration, Losses, Labor Supply, Deaths. ”

“ Data on migration and labor supply are recorded in Table 23.
Deaths by Violence
The total deaths reported were 31,000 or 29 per 1,000 residents for the 100 days covered, at the rate of 106 per annum.
Compare the normal death rate for China of 27 per annum. (3)
87 per cent of the deaths were caused by violence, most of them the intentional acts of soldiers.
One was killed in every seven families, equivalent to a total of some 1,700,000 killings if the same rate were applied to the rural families of the United States; over 8,000,000 among the farm families of all China ”

“ Finally, reports of losses and of needs are necessarily in terms of totals and averages.
It must never be forgotten that many persons, families, villages or city streets, have suffered far more grievously than statistics or generalizations show.
The reckoning for the whole community will gain from the corresponding items on the better side of the average; but that by no means brings an automatic compensation to those in the worse position. ”

“ Correspondingly, of all males those over 50 years of age gained from 13 per cent in 1932 to 18 per cent now, an advance of some 30 per cent.
The variations in sex ratios by sections of the city are of some importance. Although the ratio for all sections was 103, for the refugee camps it was only 80, since they were overcrowded with women seeking security; on
sequently, it does not occur in the family investigation but is included in the building investigation. ”

“ It has been demonstrated that refugee camps are no longer needed as a major method of relief in Nanking.
There are sufficient looted and damaged houses to shelter the present reduced population. Relief can best proceed through homes and personal services, supplying food, medical care, employment, credit, aid in reuniting separated families, to such degrees as ability, intent, and resources permit. ”

“ If we analyze by sex and age those who suffered violence or abduction, we find that the per cent of males in the killed and injured was for all ages 64, and reached for ages 30-44 the high percentage of 76. ”

“ As a supplement to the survey of farm families, investigators were asked to make careful inquiries from at least three leading men in every third village on the survey route, as to their estimate for their own village people on the same points included in the farm family survey. ”

“ The decline in the males of productive age is shown in another manner.
Of all males in 1932, those 15 to 49 years old were 57 per cent; in the present survey, they were only 49 per cent, a decrease at the rate of 14 per cent, which constitutes a serious economic and social problem. ”

“ In the Agricultural Survey the average per farm family studied was worked out by hsien and then that average was multiplied by the total number of farm families in each hsien, as given by Professor Buck in his Land Utilization in China. ”

“ Improvement of transport is acutely necessary both for producers and for consumers of food and of household requirements of all sorts.
Fuel and raw materials are largely unprocurable in the places where they are most needed. ”

“ Compare the 1932 figures for 2,027 families in the same portions of Nanking from which many of the present population are derived.
They show an average family of 4.34. (1)
It is probable that in normal times there are more persons detached from their families for reasons of employment. The data on population are given in Table 1.
DISTRIBUTION BY SEX AND AGE
The March population of Nanking showed clearly the characteristics of a war time population. The present survey reports for all ages, in all sections of the city, a sex ratio of 103.4 (males, to 100 females) ”

“ The farmers and the city workers have done splendidly in helping themselves under adverse conditions, but further progress is dependent upon adequate safety for communications; protection of persons and private property against soldiers, bandits, and robbers of all types ”

“ The average loss per family, $220, is not too much greater than the loss of $147 per family in the Shanghai hostilities in 1932 when the more prolonged destruction in this area is taken into consideration. ”

“ For the period covered in the surveys, most of the looting in the entire area, and practically all of the violence against civilians, was also done by the Japanese forces - whether justifiably or unjustifiably in terms of policy, is not for us to decide. ”

“ Losses by Damage and Looting of Buildings and Contents on Main Business Streets, According to Cause, Shown in Percentages
17. Population and Cultivated Area of Five Hsien of Ningshu
18. Value of Farm Losses
19. Average Losses per Family
20. Losses of Farm Families with Detail of Items
21. Estimate of Volume of Winter Crops
22. Total Seed Requirements for Spring Planting
23. Migration and Labor Supply
24. Sex and Age of Deaths
25. Number and Causes of Deaths (During 100 Days Covered by Study)
26. Damage to Buildings
27. Losses of Labor Animals
28. Losses of Implements
29. ”

“ Communal cooking may, however, become necessary if fuel stocks are not made available to the public. Every possible encouragement should be given to the restoration and development of municipal services: police, sanitation, light, water, public works. ”

“ Ignoring many minor cases, the casualties of military operations and the sum of those killed and injured by soldiers' violence, and of those taken away, represents 1 person in 23, or 1 in every 5 families. ”

“ In 1931, crops were twice the buildings ($215 per family, as against $108) . (3)
The 1932 war areas (rural) near Shanghai resembled Ningshu of the past few months, showing building losses as 28 times crops ($97 as against $3.50) .
The data regarding farm losses are reported in Tables 18, 19, 20, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31, of which the first three are general.
2. WINTER CROPS AND SPRING SEED
Importance of Food Production in This Area
The importance of food production in this area, and its bearing upon relief needs, is emphasized by two facts. ”

“ The Agricultural Survey attempted to cover the Ningshu Area, a natural and historical unit of six hsien grouped around Nanking.
Two of the hsien, Kiangpu and Luho, lie north of the Yangtze River; while to the south are Kiangning (in which Nanking is located) , Kuyung, Lishui, and Kaoshun.
Owing to conditions explained in Appendix A on Organization and Method, Kaoahun and half of Luho could not be investigated in March.
The 4.5 hsien included in the survey had at that time a maximum of 1,080,000 farm population, probably 1,200,000 to 1,350,000 before the war. ”

“ Table 14
† Less than 0.1 per cent.
Table 15,16
Table 17
† In the present study the "family" is all persons living and eating together and therefore corresponds to "household", as used by Buck and some others.
†† The figures for average size of family represent those persons actually reported in this survey as residents in families visited in March. Compare Table 23 for possible adjustments on account of war migration, which suggest that the original size of these same families was 6-5; and proportionately, the original farm population was 1,211,200. ”

“ It is expected to provide 3.40 shih (market) tan of grain per family, which would feed them for less than seven weeks, according to grain consumption reports by Buck and by Gamble for farm and city populations, respectively. (1)
The data regarding winter crops are found in Tables 21, 30, 31, 32, of which 21 is general.
Shortage of Seed
Data on this subject are perhaps the least satisfactory in the survey, and they are not counted in the list of losses (where they are of course involved in the losses of stored grain) . ”

“ For purposes of the building investigation, Cheng Pei Tung was split off from Cheng Pei; this eastern section of the north City ran from North Chungshan Road to the wall bounded on the north by the Drum Tower and Peichiko. ”

“ This method was employed in the Flood Survey of 1931, and more widely in the Land Utilization Survey under Dr. Buck's direction.
In March, 224 villages were reported in this manner, an average of 50 per hsien (4.5 hsien) .
This body of data confirmed the general picture of the farm survey, but varied irregularly in specific results.
(1) . All farmers in Ningshu live in villages; farm families and village families are equivalent terms. ”

“ Buck, Ibid., p. 417. +5 R. T. Ts'ui in a forthcoming article in "Economic Facts" finda the most frequent yield of wheat in Kiangning to be 1.74 shih tan per shih mow, that is, 1.583 shih tan per Kianging Mow.
Table 22
† The amounts of seed needed Include what could be purchased locally but for which the farmer did not have money, as well as seed that could not be purchased locally. ”