John Graunt

“ Hereupon I apprehended that this Stopping might be the Green sickness, forasmuch as I find few or none to have been returned upon that Account, although many be visibly stained with it. Now, whether the same be forborn out of shame, I know not: For since the World believes that Marriage cures it, it may seem indeed a shame, that any Maid should dye uncured, when there are more Males than Females, that is, an overplus of Husbands to all that can be Wives. ”

“ And why are there more old men in Countries than in London, per rata? And although the difference in Hackney and Newington, above-mentioned, be not very notorious, yet the reason may be their vicinity to London, and that the Inhabitants are most such, whose Bodies have first been impaired with the London-Air, before they withdraw thither. ”

“ All which (because Sir Francis Bacon reckons his Discourses of Life and Death to be Natural History [7] ; and because I understand your selves are also appointing means, how to measure the Degrees of Heat, Wetness, and Windiness in the several Parts of His Majesties Dominions) I am humbly bold to think Natural History also, and consequently that I am obliged to cast in this small Mite into your great Treasury of that kind. ”

“ The Plague of 1636 lasted twelve Years, in eight whereof there died 2000 per annum one with another, and never under 300. The which shews, that the Contagion of the Plague depends more upon the Disposition of the Air, than upon the Effluvia from the Bodies of men. ”

“ Now, forasmuch as it is not good to let the World be lulled into a security and belief of Impunity by our Bills, which we intend shall not be only as Deaths heads to put men in mind of their Mortality, but also as Mercurial Statues to point out the most dangerous waies that lead us into it and misery ”

“ Now it is manifest of it self, in which of these years most died; but in which of them was the greatest Mortality of all Diseases in general, or of the Plague in particular, we discover thus. In the Years 1592, and 1636, we find the proportion of those dying of the Plague in the whole to be near alike, that is, about 10 to 23, or 11 to 25, or as about 2 to 5. 3. In the Year 1625, we find the Plague to bear unto the whole in proportion as 35 to 51, or 7 to 10, that is almost the triplicate of the former proportion ”

“ Now forasmuch as Princes are not only Powerful, but Rich, according to the number of their People (Hands being the Father, as Lands are the Mother and Womb of Wealth) [3] it is no wonder why States, by encouraging Marriage, and hindering Licentiousness, advance their own Interest, as well as preserve the Laws of God from contempt and violation. ”

“ III. And this I take to be the truest Reason, why Foxes, Wolves, and other Vermin Animals, that are not gelt, increase not faster than Sheep, when as so many thousands of these are daily Butchered, and very few of the other die otherwise than of themselves.
4. We have hitherto said, There are more Males than Females; we say next, That the one exceed the other by about a thirteenth part. So that although more Men die violent deaths than Women, that is, more are slain in Wars, killed by Mischance, drowned at Sea, and die by the Hand of Justice ”

“ One is the Government and Guard of the City by Citizens themselves, and that alternately. No man setling into a Trade for that employment. And the other is, The natural and customary abhorrence of that inhuman Crime, and all Bloodshed, by most English men: for of all that are Executed, few are for Murther. ”

“ But I answer more seriously, by complaining, That whereas the Art of Governing, and the true Politicks, is how to preserve the Subject in Peace and Plenty; that men study only that part of it which teacheth how to supplant and over-reach one another, and how, not by fair out-running, but by tripping up each other's heels, to win the Prize. ”

“ All vary in unimportant particulars from the pattern of a yearly bill which Graunt gives. The bill of 1607 lacks the entry of those buried of the plague without the liberties in Middlesex and Surrey, the bill of 1609, though it gives them does not include them in its total burials, while the form for a bill dated 1610 both includes them in its total and also omits to enter separately "the whole sum of all the burials in London and the liberties thereof." ”

“ We have said, 'Twere better the Publick should keep the Beggars, though they earned nothing, &c. But most men will laugh to hear us suppose, That any able to work (as indeed most Beggars are, in one kind of measure or another) should be kept without earning any thing. But we Answer, That if there be but a certain proportion of work to be done, and that the same be already done by the non-Beggars, then to imploy the Beggars about it, will but transfer the want from one hand to another; nor can a Learner work so cheap as a skilful practised Artist can. ”

“ Wherefore, if it be necessary to impart to the world a good Accompt of some few Casualties, which since it cannot well be done without giving an Accompt of them all, then is our common practice of so doing very apt and rational. ”

“ If this be true in these Countries, where Women hinder the facility of their Child-bearing by affected straitening of their Bodies; then certainly in America, where the same is not practised, Nature is little more to be taxed as to Woman, than in Brutes, among whom not one in some thousands do dye of their Deliveries: what I have heard of the Irish women confirms me herein. ”

“ And on the other side, how few are employed in raising and working necessary Food and Covering; and of the speculative men, how few do study Nature and Things! The more ingenious not advancing much further than to write and speak wittily about these matters.
I conclude, That a clear knowledge of all these particulars, and many more, whereat I have shot but at rovers, is necessary, in order to good, certain, and easie Government, and even to balance Parties and Factions both in Church and State. ”

“ For, I conceive, that in Countries subject to great Epidemical sweeps, men may live very long, but, where the proportion of the Chronical distempers is great, it is not likely to be so; because men being long sick, and alwaies sickly, cannot live to any great Age, as we see in several sorts of Metal-men, who, although they are less subject to acute Diseases than others, yet seldom live to be old, that is, not to reach unto those years, which David says is the Age of Man. ”

“ Moreover, We observe from the 21 of July to the 12 of October; the Plague increasing reduced the Christenings to 70 at a Medium, diminishing the above proportion down to 2⁄5. Now the cause of this must be flying, and death, as well as Miscarriages and Abortions; for there died within that time about 25000, whereof many were certainly Women-with child: besides, the fright of so many dying within so small a time, might drive away so many others, as to cause this Effect. ”

“ The reason whereof is, not, that the Husband cannot maintain as splendidly three, as one; for he might, having three Wives, live himself upon a quarter of his Income, that is, in a parity with all three, as well as, having but one, live in the same parity at half with her alone: but rather, because that to keep them all quiet with each other, and himself, he must keep them all in greater aw, and less splendour; which power he having, he will probably use it to keep them all as low as he pleases, and at no more cost than makes for his own pleasure ”

“ I. That Christian Religion, prohibiting Polygamy, is more agreeable to the Law of Nature, that is, the Law of God, than Mahumetism, and others, that allow it: for one Man his having many Women, or Wives, by Law, signifies nothing, unless there were many Women to one Man in Nature also.
II. The obvious Objection hereunto is, That one Horse, Bull, or Ram, having each of them many Females, do promote increase. ”

“ Now, if all other places send about 1⁄3 of their increase, viz. about one out of 900 of their Inhabitants Annually to London, and that there be 14 times as many People in England as there be in London (for which we have given some Reasons [2] ) then London increases by such Advenæ every year above 6000: the which will make the Account of Burials to swell about 200 per Annum, and will answer the increases we observe. ”

“ That the greatest Plagues of the City are equally, and quickly repaired from the Country: That the wasting of Males by Wars and Colonies do not prejudice the due proportion between them and Females: That the opinions of Plagues accompanying the Entrance of Kings, is false, and seditious: That London, the Metropolis of England, || is perhaps a Head too big for the Body [4] , and possibly too strong: That this Head grows three times as fast as the Body unto which it belongs ”

“ The Observation which I shall add hereunto, is, That the vast number of Beggars, swarming up and down this City, do all live, and seem to be most of them healthy and strong; whereupon I make this question, Whether, since they do all live by begging, that is, without any kind of labour; it were not better for the State to keep them, even although they earned nothing? that so they might live regularly, and not in that Debauchery, as many Beggars do ”

“ Fourthly, the cramming up of the void spaces and Gardens within the Walls with Houses, to the prejudice of Light and Air, have made men build new ones, where they less fear those inconveniencies.
16. Conformity in Building to other civil Nations hath disposed us to let our old Wooden dark Houses fall to decay, and to build new ones, whereby to answer all the ends above-mentioned. ”

“ Which shews, that the opener and freer Airs are most subject both to the good and bad Impressions, and that the Fumes, Steams and Stenches of London do so medicate and impregnate the Air about it, that it becomes capable of little more, as if the said Fumes rising out of London met with, opposed and justled backwards the Influences falling from above, or resisted the Incursion of the Country-Airs. ”

“ WE have, for the present, done with our Observations upon the Accounts of Burials and Christenings in and about London; we shall next present the Accounts of both Burials, Christenings, and also of Weddings in the Country, having to that purpose inserted Tables of 90 years for a certain Parish in Hantshire [1] , being a place neither famous for Longevity and Healthfulness, nor for the contrary. ”

“ FOrasmuch as a long and serious perusal of all the Bills of Mortality, which this great City hath afforded for almost fourscore years, hath advanced but the few Observations comprised in the fore-going Treatise; I hope very little will be expected from the few scattered Papers that have come to my hands since the publishing thereof, especially from one that hath learned from the Royal Society, how many Observations go to the making up of one Theoreme, which (like Oaks and other Trees fit for durable Building) must be of many years growth. ”

“ As for instance, I have heard much complaint, that Trade is not set in some of the South-western and North-western Parts of Ireland, there being so many excellent Harbours for that purpose; whereas in several of those places I have also heard, that there are few other Inhabitants, but such as live ex sponte creatis, and are unfit Subjects of Trade, as neither employing others, nor working themselves. ”

“ In brief, when any dead Body is found in England, no Algebraist, or Uncypherer of |31| Letters, can use more subtile suppositions and variety of conjectures to find out the Demonstration or Cipher, than every common unconcerned person doth to find out the Murtherers, and that for ever, until it be done. ”

“ THE Observations which I happened to make (for I designed them not) upon the Bills of Mortality, have faln out to be both Political and Natural, some concerning Trade and Government, others concerning the Air, || Countries, Seasons, Fruitfulness, Health, Diseases, Longevity, and the proportions between the Sex and Ages of Mankind. ”

“ For no man can be said to die properly of Age, who is much less. It follows from hence, That if in any other Country more than seven of the 100 live beyond 70, such Country is to be esteemed more healthful than this of our City.
19. Before we speak of particular Casualties, we shall observe, That among the several Casualties some bear a constant proportion unto the whole number of Burials; such are Chronical Diseases, and the Diseases whereunto the City is most subject ”

“ That every Wedding, one with another, produces four Children, and consequently that that is the proportion of Children which any Marriageable Man or Woman may be presumed shall have. For, though a man may be Married more than once, yet, being once Married, he may die without any Issue at all. ”

“ MY first Observation is, that few are starved. This appears, for that of the 229250, which have died, we find not above fifty one to have been starved, excepting helpless Infants at Nurse, which being caused rather by carelessness, ignorance, and infirmity of the Milch-women, is not properly an effect or sign of want of food in the Country, or of means to get it. ”

“ Moreover, although a Man be Prolifick fourty years, and a Woman but five and twenty, which makes the Males to be as 560 to 325 Females, yet the causes above-named, and the later marriage of the Men, reduce all to an equality. ”

“ But what I have said of the Rickets and stopping of the Stomach, I do in some measure say of the Rising of the Lights also, viz. that these Risings (be they what they will) have increased much above the general proportion; for in 1629 there were but 44, and in 1660, 249, viz. almost six times as many. |39|
31. Now forasmuch as Rickets appear much in the Overgrowing of Childrens Livers and Spleens (as by the Bills may appear) which surely may cause stopping of the Stomach by squeezing and crowding upon that part. ”

“ Now from this it should follow, that more Women should die than Men, if the number of Burials answered in proportion to that of Sicknesses: but this must be salved, either by the alleging, that the Physicians cure those Sicknesses, so as few more die than if none were sick; or else that Men, being more intemperate than Women, die as much by reason of their Vices, as Women do by the Infir-|68|mity of their Sex; and consequently, more Males being born than Females, more also die. ”

“ Suppose, that Anno 1569 there were 2400 Souls in that Parish, and that they increased by the Births 70, exceeding the Burials 58, it will follow, that the said 2400 cannot double under 200. Now, if London be less healthful than the Country, as certainly it is, the Plague being reckoned in, it follows, that London must be doubling it self by generation in much above 200 [12] : but if it hath increased from 2 to 5 in 54, as aforesaid, the same must be by reason of transplantation out of the Country. |96| ”

“ Nevertheless, as I have presumed to present this Pamphlet, so far as it relates to Government and Trade, to one of His Majestie's Peers, and eminent Ministers of State: so I do desire your leave to present the same unto You also, as it relates to Natural History, and as it depends upon the Mathematicks of my Shop-Arithmetick. For You are not only His Majestie's Privy Council for Philosophy, but also His Great Council. You are the three Estates, viz. the Mathematical, Mechanical, || and Physical. You are his Parliament of Nature ”

“ So as although I do not think one single Weekly Bill is sufficient to ground such a Conclusion upon, yet I think that several yearly Bills are the best of the easie ways from which to collect the Number of the People.
Secondly, Although I take it for granted, that in Dublin there be more Born than Buried, because the same hath appeared to be so in London by the Bills of Mortality before the year 1641, when the Civil Wars began, and much more eminently in Amsterdam, as shall be hereafter shewn ”