Leo Tolstoy

“ The failure of the harvest in the most fertile places accomplishes something like what happens when you shorten the arm of a lever : you not only diminish the power of the shorter end, but you increase as many times the power of the larger end. A third of Russia is attacked by famine, the most fertile part, which has fed the other two-thirds, and therefore it is very probable that there will not be enough grain for all. ”

“ All these symptoms show that there is a great probability that Russia has not the grain she needs.
But besides these symptoms there is still another phenomenon which ought to compel us to take all possible measures to avert the misfortune that threatens us. This phenomenon is the panic which has seized society, that is to say, the undefined obscure terror of some expected misfortune the terror which people communicate to one another, the terror which deprives people of the capability of working to any purpose. ”

“ We who can count how many kinds of beetles there are in the world, how many microbes there are in such and such a space, how many millions of versts it is to the stars, and how many puds of iron and hydrogen there are in each one we, forsooth, are not able to reckon up how much people need to eat so as not to perish of starvation, and how much grain has been garnered by the people from the fields whereby we have been, and still are, nourished. ”

“ All these symptoms, and chiefly the phenomenon of the panic, are very significant, and therefore one cannot help fearing. It is impossible to say, as is generally said about the enemy before our forces are compared with his, we can catch him with our hats. The enemy, the terrible enemy, stands here before us, and we cannot say we do not fear him, because we know what he is, and more than all, we know that we fear him. ”

“ We who with such wealth of detail have collected such a mass of statistical materials so far as I know up to the present time of no use to any living person details as to the percentage of births as compared to marriages and deaths and the like we suddenly find ourselves not in a condition to collect the only information which in the course of a century is helpful, is really useful. ”

“ If there was no superfluity at all, and it was shown that in Russia there was not as much grain as was necessary, the state of things would be dubious and dangerous ; but, nevertheless, it might be that, by not ordering grain from abroad, only by modifying the amount of grain used, for example, on liquor-distilling, giving out some of the grain gratuitously, it might be possible to go on living and working. ”

“ The people toward the end of October of this year go to seek occupation in Moscow and Petersburg, at the time when all the labors for the winter have ceased, when provisions are three times more expensive than usual, and every householder has got rid of all the superfluous persons he can, at a time when everywhere there is a multitude of laboring men thrown out of work then people, who never had any position in the cities, go and seek those situations. ”

“ In a week's time, without much trouble, an active man can traverse a quarter or a fifth of a district, especially if he lives in it ; and with a possibility of error of from ten to fifteen per cent can determine the amount of grain requisite for subsistence, and the amount on hand above and beyond that required by each person. ”

“ If during the last years, when wheat had reached an especially low price, certain venders began to lay in a store of grain, waiting for a price, then this storage was so difficult that, as soon as the prices advanced at the beginning of the spring of this year, and reached fifty and sixty kopeks a pud, then all the grain was sold and cleaned out, and nothing remained of the provisions of previous years. In 1840 not only had the proprietors and tradesmen plenty of provisions, but everywhere among the muzhiks were from three to five years' stores of old grain. ”

“ This panic is expressed even in the prohibition of exporting first rye, then of the other breadstuffs, except for some reason of millet, and in such measures, on the one hand, as assigning great sums for the starving, and on the other hand, the collecting by the local authorities of assessments from those who can pay, as if the extraction of money from the country were not a direct enhancement of the poverty of the country.
A rich muzhik holds a mortgage on a poor one's ungathered crops. ”

“ According to the present state of circumstances, that is to say, at the price of one ruble seventy kopeks, when the zemstvos did not buy even one-fourth of the necessary grain, and when there was no rye offered for sale anywhere, even in small quantities, there is, on the contrary, a probability that by reason of the zemstvos buying the whole quantity they needed the price would suddenly rise to a price which would show that there was none of the grain in Russia. ”

“ Of tradesmen in the cities, of the railway, it may be bought in bulk, at least a half a carload or a carload ; but at retail there is none to be had. The great merchants who have a supply will not sell at all, they are waiting ; the small tradesmen, storekeepers, buy up all they can, and sell it again at a profit to the wholesale merchants. ”

“ He would not push him, but the taxes are demanded from him, so he has to demand payment from the poor man, and ruins him.
This panic is particularly noticeable in the controversies between the various local departments. There is a repetition of what always takes place in a panic terror ; some pull in one direction, some in another.
This panic is also noticeable in the amusements and activities of the people. I will adduce one example, the movement of the people toward wage-earning. ”

“ If it is said that in regard to the doubtful solidity of a bath in which people go once a week on a Saturday, the beams still stand, and there is no need of replacing them, one may believe them and risk leaving the bath without repairs ”