“ Afghanistan over the next 2-3 years will be simply too dangerous for most civil agencies. NATO forces are central to our success. They bring resources, political legitimacy, and brainpower. With few exceptions, however, they will not conduct aggressive counter-insurgency operations. They will be a huge help with training and monitoring the growth and mentoring of the ANA and ANP. My judgment is that we can achieve our objectives in the coming five years: 1ST: Create an Afghan security force that will operate in defense of their people and reduce our own active combat role. ”

“ The Taliban believe they are winning. The Afghan people do not know who will prevail---their government or the Taliban. The populations particularly the Pashtun are hedging their bets. Most Afghans are also dismayed at the injustice and corruption of the government (in particular the ANP) compared to the more disciplined and Islamic Taliban. Taliban open internet communications among themselves and their propaganda to the Afghan people take into account their slogan that “the West has the clocks...but the Taliban have the time.” The Taliban think they have the moral high ground. ”

“ We are unlikely to achieve our political and military goals in 18 months. This will inevitably become a three to ten year strategy to build a viable Afghan state with their own security force that can allow us to withdraw. It may well cost us an additional $300 billion and we are likely to suffer thousands more US casualties. One of the most important concerns of American national security policy in the short run is arguably the stability of Pakistan. Pakistan is four nations under one weak federal government. Only the Pakistani Army is a load bearing bureaucracy. ”

“ People and commerce now move constantly day and night (albeit at frequent risk of criminal or Taliban attack) across the Afghan frontiers with their six neighbor states. The economy is climbing from zero to rudimentary. The legal economy is growing at 10% per year. The Afghans have rapidly created effective businesses that do: light manufacturing, crafts, construction, trucking, and road building. The agricultural system is painfully trying to repair the damage of 30 years of war and the competition of opium planting for scarce arable land. ”

“ The Afghan nation has an elected President --Hamid Karzai --who is: brilliant, well educated, non-violent, a politically astute deal maker in a nation where murder not compromise is the normal political tool; a man who deeply cares for his people; and who is a personally courageous Afghan patriot who is constantly at risk of assassination (several near successful attempts...probably from the Gulbuddin Hekmatyar insurgents in the FATA region of Pakistan.) ”

“ The $3.4 billion opium crop of 7,700 metric tons (2008) produces weapons and supplies for the Taliban and al Qaeda, corrupts the police and civil authorities, diverts land from food (two million drug workers) and has addicted a significant percentage of the population . Left unaddressed -- the heroin menace will defeat our strategic goals in this campaign. Afghanistan is now the most damaged narco-state on the face of the earth. There are at least 920,000 drug users causing abject misery among widows, orphans, the unemployed, the poor. ”

“ Afghanistan is the world’s largest grower of opium which is banned under the 1988 UN Drug Convention to which it is a signatory. Drug money is a fifth of the national GNP. Afghanistan produces 93% of the global supply of heroin. This criminal trade funnels $200-400 million into the Taliban and the warlords. Increasingly the Afghan criminal enterprises process a larger and larger percentage of the opium into exportable morphine or heroin. Production has overwhelmed global demand. ”

“ Violence against the people has been dramatically reduced as the Taliban learned both in Afghanistan and the Pakistani tribal areas that they will have a fatal kinetic encounter with ISAF ground combat units if they mass in sizable numbers in daylight or dark---OR if discovered by US airpower to include Predator/Reaper armed UAV’s. The death rate among Afghan civilians is way down since the new ISAF Commander General McChrystal instituted extremely sound restrictive ROE on the employment of firepower in populated areas. ”

“ When we entered Afghanistan on a punitive military expedition following the murder of nearly 3000 Americans on “911” --the Afghan nation was in a shattered condition. People were living in caves in the rubble of Kabul. There were nearly no institutions left standing except the Taliban. Five million refugees have now returned since 2002 demonstrating with their presence hope for the future... The Taliban are politically rejected by nearly the entire non-Pashtun population. Even among the Pashtun they command polling support of less than 6%. ”

“ The Pakistani Army is fighting their own Taliban for the future of the nation. It is not clear if Pakistan will regress to fundamentalism or become a modern, unified state. There is little question that Pakistan offers de facto secure sanctuary in both Baluchistan and the FATA regions to the Quetta Shura and the Hekmatyar Taliban factions. 4.GENERAL: Afghanistan and her 28 million people are trying to build the basic elements of a civil and Islamic society while traumatized by 35 years of cruel violence and chaos. The country is a giant and beautiful land of great contrasts. ”

“ The Afghans lack infrastructure, justice, resources and the most basic forms of local and national governance. Only 12 % of the land is arable and they face grossly inadequate potable water, soil degradation, massive deforestation, and severe overgrazing. Afghanistan is the second most corrupt nation in the world after Somalia. ”

“ His popularity with his own people has fallen dramatically as the Taliban have surged to greater power in part because of the ineffectiveness of his government. Karzai is also a national leader in a deeply divided nation who has the legitimacy that comes from being part of the dominant ethnic group (42% of the nation is probably Pashtun) and the most prestigious tribe. President Karzai is also committed to earning his place in history as a transformer of his nation to a peaceful place in the civilized world. ”

“ These Taliban have a political objective to knock NATO out of the war ---backed up by ferocious combat capabilities. We must ensure that ISAF forces follow the tactical basics of: fire support to always include supporting artillery, intelligence oversight, OP/LP’s for early warning, adequate reserves, and operate with appropriate tactical mass against these very clever enemy fighters. Only the incredible small unit leadership, fighting skill, and valor of these two small US Army units ---which suffered very high casualties at Wanat and COP Keating --- prevented a humiliating disaster. ”

“ Social indicators have dramatically increased for the better since the end of the Taliban’s cruel era. Access to basic health care has rocketed from 8% in 2001 to 79%. 83% of the children are immunized. Child mortality has been reduced by 25%. TB deaths are down by 50%. Seven million children are in school to include three million girls -- up from one million students and zero girls during the Taliban rule. The repression of human communication and thought during the Taliban has been reduced dramatically. Eight million people have phones. ”

“ As much ten thousand tons of stable opium have been stockpiled---enough to provide two years of the global demand for heroin. (900,000+ US addicts) . Afghan heroin primarily is consumed in neighboring SW Asia nations, Russia, and Western Europe. It causes enormous suffering and bloodshed. Afghan heroin is estimated to kill more than 10,000 people a year in NATO countries...more than five times the NATO troop losses from combat. ”

“ They care deeply about Afghanistan, they want an adventure, and they need a paycheck. Without them the entire war effort ---and most economic and political development would grind to an immediate and total collapse. The recent Afghan Presidential election in this fragile, violent nation (with no history of democracy or the rule of law) was deeply flawed. The 30,000+ Taliban are mostly Pashtun. They terrorized the Pashtun plurality into not voting. Karzai’s dishonest campaign electoral machine then manufactured three million ballots to make up for the missing voters. ”

“ From a Western perspective ---in the conservative rural areas (80% of the nation) --- women are in many cases merely abused property with less opportunity than a donkey. General life expectancy is under 45 years. Tuberculosis and drug addiction are widespread. The country is infested with 5-7 million land mines which have disabled more than 200,000 Afghans. Terrorism and lack of basic physical security is widespread. ”

“ Casualties move in and out of the battle zone by air--three days time to return wounded soldiers to US with a 95% survival rate. Isolated Army, Marine, and SOF units are resupplied with food, water, fuel, building materials, and humanitarian aid by precision airdrop from altitudes in excess of 15,000 feet which land inside a 100 foot circle with 95% precision. Air power is the glue that holds together the war effort. Afghanistan and Iraq are an immensely costly war running in excess of $377 million a day in FY10 Constant dollars. ”

“ Insurgent attacks have increased 60% in less than a year. In July alone they employed 828 IED attacks against friendly forces. We should expect 5,700 IED attacks in total by year’s end 2009. We must guard against tactical arrogance by US and Allied ground combat forces. Twice in recent months we have seen battalion sized units of Taliban fighters conduct highly successful (not-withstanding catastrophic losses by the attacking insurgents) complex attacks employing surprise, reconnaissance, fire support, maneuver, and enormous courage in an attempt to over run isolated US units. ”

“ However, only the courageous Brit’s will have both robust ROE and an aggressive ground-air-logistics-SOF combat capability. The Canadians and the Dutch will withdraw. The political support in Germany for their Bundeswehr (extremely weak capabilities because of very restrictive ROE) is on the verge of collapse. The French are extremely capable but in the field in small numbers. The Afghan National Army is a growing success story. All five Maneuver Corps Headquarters have been fielded along with 14 of 19 Brigade Headquarters, and 82 of the 132 authorized ground combat battalions. ”

“ It was the end result of a very deliberative and thoughtful analytical review of the situation in Afghanistan and our several unpalatable options. It was an appropriate political statement which delivered resources to his field commander and explained why the Commander-in-Chief would not downsize or withdraw---and face the short term political and military disaster that would immediately ensue. There is precious little support for the Afghan operation among the American people. 66% say it is not worth fighting for. ”

“ The overwhelming percentage of 124,000+ US and Allied NGO’s and contractors in Afghanistan (to include DynCorp whose Board of Directors I am proud to be with) are men and women of integrity, energy, and talent who are there at great personal sacrifice and peril. ”

“ They have deep respect for learning and teachers---and a thirst and gratitude for education and knowledge even at the most elemental level. They are intensely focused as students at any age and quick to learn and adapt. ”

“ Unemployment is widespread. 40% of the country literally does not know where their next meal will come from. People starve or freeze to death in the winter. The lot of women is dismal...87% complain of violence... ”

“ The Afghan goal is to feed the population and again become a breadbasket for SW Asia. Educational institutions to include universities and vocational training programs are appearing across the country. ”

“ We in the international community have handled him very stupidly and arrogantly at times. Hamid Karzai is trying to govern the transition of Afghanistan with a leadership cadre which is a mixture of world class expatriates (to include the current MOD and MOI and several other cabinet level officials) , many political and bureaucratic and military leaders who are courageous and devout but illiterate ”

“ There is almost no civil or criminal justice. Court trials last only minutes in many cases and lack juries. Human rights violations are endemic: extrajudicial killings, official impunity, restrictions on freedom of the press and religion, and severe and widespread child abuse. ”

“ They are also the guardians of Pakistan’s 70-90 nuclear weapons. They have only tenuous control over much of the country. We are very vulnerable in our Afghanistan operation. 90% of our Afghanistan logistics comes through the Port of Karachi and runs a dangerous thousand miles of wild country on “jingle trucks” headed to the Bagram or Kandahar Logistics Bases. Pakistani success in maintaining internal stability and economic growth is vital to our continued operations in Afghanistan. ”

“ The nation’s 34 provincial prisons and 203 detention centers are appalling. Prisoners are consistently subject to torture and police frequently rape female and male detainees. Five million children live in desperate poverty. ”

“ They are richly funded with drug money. They are well equipped and heavily armed. They have perfected massive anti-armor IED’s. They are good at rapid and effective information operations. They deal in recent months with the Afghan people in a careful manner to avoid the cruel images of their past oppression. The Taliban now have a serious presence in 160 Districts of 364--- up from 30 Districts in 2003. ”

“ The Afghan’s are generally extremely grateful for US and international presence. US/NATO forces have a 60%+ favorability rating in the polls. (US poll numbers are lower in the UK, South Korea, Germany and Japan.) ”