5G

“ In the near term, 3 and 4 GHz spectrum will likely serve as the dominant global bands that drive volume in infrastructure and device deployments. In the current state of 5G development and spectrum usage, it is unlikely that the United States will be able to leverage such technology, much less lead the rest of the world in that band of spectrum deployment as it did with 4G almost a decade ago. ”

“ Today, four of the top 10 are Chinese. These trends are already in effect, and 5G has the potential to skew future networks even further in the direction of China if it continues to lead.
The shift from 4G to 5G will drastically impact the future of global communication networks and fundamentally change the environment in which DoD operates. While DoD will feel the impact of 5G, the rollout itself will be driven by the U.S. commercial sector. ”

“ DoD must be able to communicate, engage, and operate faster to keep up with the changing environment. 5G will enable this new concept of operations, allowing larger volumes of data to be shared in close to real time across geographically dispersed systems. Currently, data sharing at that scale cannot be completed effectively with legacy communication networks. Existing networks will benefit by leveraging lower latency and higher capacity data transfer capability, but 5G’s true potential will be in its impact on the battle network of the future. ”

“ While much of the discussion around 5G revolves around the commercial sector as the driving force behind its rollout, 5G ecosystems of technology can equally revolutionize DoD operations, networks, and information processes. ”

“ While China, South Korea, the United States, and Japan lead the field, the rest of the world is playing catch-up on 5G deployment. The United Kingdom, Germany, and France can be considered “second tier” 5G developers, while Singapore, Russia, and Canada make up the “third tier,” and the rest of the world comes after. These countries are beginning to auction off spectrum bandwidth with varying timelines and volume of spectrum made available, but many lack any formal policies or strategies to enable 5G implementation and most anticipate 5G launches outside of the 2020 timeframe. ”

“ If companies want to sell their 5G products into China or into any network with Chinese sponsorship, they will have to build to Chinese preferred specifications and partner with Chinese companies. This increases the risk of product backdoors and vulnerabilities throughout the supply chain.
The shift to 5G will carry the same potential risks and rewards as previous generational transitions, but at an even larger scale. The leader of 5G stands to gain hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue over the next decade, with widespread job creation across the wireless technology sector. ”

“ Most operators are looking at deploying mmWave 5G sites on utility poles, given the poles’ ease of accessibility and abundance. Using a database of utility poles in the United States, the study indicated that it would require approximately 13 million pole-mounted 28-GHz base stations and $400B dollars in capex to deliver 100 Mbps edge rate at 28 GHz to 72% of the U.S. population, and up to 1 Gbps to approximately 55% of the U.S. population. ”

“ There is debate over whether some of the networks deployed have qualified as true 5G, and there is intense competition between these providers to roll out 5G networks within the next few years. 5G development is being overseen by 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project) , the standards body that also oversaw the development of 3G UMTS (including HSPA) and 4G LTE standards. ”

“ DoD may have some initial growing pains as it begins to share parts of the spectrum, but the net gain in capability from 5G will ultimately make up for that inconvenience. If DoD does not begin to share the sub-6 spectrum, it will increase the risk of dependence on a compromised supply chain as U.S. companies will be blocked from developing and competing their own sub-6 5G offerings, and foreign providers will increasingly embed their offerings in networks and systems globally. ”

“ Given the gap in 5G advancement between the first tier and everyone else, the rest of the world will likely be driven to implement the 5G network design and infrastructure of whichever country leads 5G. China is the current leader, and U.S. allies have taken different stances on how to respond to the Chinese drive to set 5G standards. Some are wary of Chinese influence because of security concerns and are actively working to push back on China’s 5G roll-out. ”

“ Commercial companies can supply any and all of the above inputs, but this comes with the risk of inadvertent or malicious security vulnerabilities that put DoD systems and networks at risk. The 5G ecosystem will especially run the risk of including security vulnerabilities if China becomes the global leader supplying 5G infrastructure from the subcomponent-level to the integrated system-level, for even if the United States limits sales of Chinese products into the United States, DoD will still have to operate on foreign networks overseas that will likely be built with a Chinese supply chain. ”

“ In addition to 5G network infrastructure, DoD must also consider security risks associated with 5G devices. If the current trends of rising Chinese dominance in the wireless device market continues, Chinese vendors will continue to grow in market share and in sophistication, even if denied access to the U.S. market due to their device popularity with the rest of the world. ”

“ China plans to deploy the first widespread 5G network, with its first set of sub-6 services becoming available in 2020. First-mover advantage will likely drive significant increases in their handset and telecom equipment vendors market along with their domestic semiconductor and system suppliers. As a result, Chinese internet companies will be well-positioned to develop services and applications for their home market that take advantage of 5G speed and low latency. ”

“ DoD must prepare to operate in a sub-6 5G ecosystem, which will require a shift in strategy and a consideration of where DoD is willing to share bandwidth in the sub-6 realm.
This shift may come with some inherent benefits. The anonymity that comes from utilizing the same infrastructure as any other company or country provides an industry-standard form of security all its own. Integration of government and civil use may provide a layer of security by allowing military traffic to “hide in plain sight” as traffic becomes more difficult to see and isolate. ”

“ If China is able to collect this data, DoD should consider discrete directives to defend against these vulnerabilities that fall outside the traditional DoD systems and platforms, such as training to limit inadvertent sharing of PII through personal device use. In addition to these efforts, DoD should initiate testing and experimentation on its bases for future generations of wireless technology beyond 5G. This testing and experimentation will occur over a longer timeframe to ensure that the United States is prepared to lead the next generational transition. ”

“ This agreement protects flight safety and allows aviation operations to continue without significant disruption and will bring more high-speed internet options to millions of Americans. Expanding 5G and promoting competition in internet service are critical priorities of mine, and tomorrow will be a massive step in the right direction. ”

“ These vendors will in turn be unable to invest R&D towards future 5G offerings due to decreasing market share, limiting the number of competitive products and depriving DoD and U.S. industries of better and cheaper global supply chains. ”

“ Sub-6 includes the range of spectrum below 6 GHz. Sub-6 can provide broad area network coverage with lower risk of interruption than mmWave due to its longer wavelength and greater capacity to penetrate obstacles. It therefore requires less capex and fewer base stations, as compared to mmWave. This, together with the ability to leverage existing 4G infrastructure, makes sub-6 the lower hanging fruit for a potential 5G sub-6 ecosystem. Faster time-to-rollout is particularly important given the speed at which China is pushing forward. ”

“ Even if the security of a particular release of software for a 5G base station may be secure and well-implemented, there is no guarantee that future releases will continue to be equally secure. Bugs will inevitably be found and require software patches, and these fixes may need to be fielded quickly without fully considering new security issues that might be introduced with the patch. It will become increasingly challenging to validate continued security with each iteration. ”

“ Even if base station code is secure and well-managed over time, the business model of the wireless infrastructure providers is such that personnel from the vendor are typically involved in the commissioning, operation, and maintenance of network infrastructure. This requires vendors to access core management systems that operate the network, and allows vendors to deploy software to equipment in the system. ”

“ Europe, led by Germany, gained first competitive advantage in 2G, and as a result companies like Nokia and Ericsson were able to roll out more advanced devices earlier and were already transitioning to 3G in the 2000s when the United States was still trying to implement 2G. The European wireless tech industry boomed during this period while U.S. companies struggled to keep pace. Europe lost this edge during the 3G transition, when they were hampered by regulations that required time-consuming auctions of 3G spectrum, rather than simply repurposing existing 2G spectrum bandwidth. ”

“ Beamforming is a technique for identifying the most efficient data-delivery route to a particular user and reducing interference for nearby users in the process. These options can improve the propagation of mmWaves, but challenges remain with maintaining connectivity across a broader area using this part of the spectrum. Significant time and R&D will have to be devoted to solving the mmWave propagation problem before it can be deployed as a more universal wireless network solution. ”

“ This creates a high infrastructure cost, as a mmWave network would require densely populated base stations throughout a geographic area to ensure uninterrupted connectivity. This challenge is further aggravated by the fact that mmWaves can be easily blocked by obstacles like walls, foliage, and the human body itself. MmWave spectrum can achieve extended range in specific circumstances, such as in large buildings with flat reflective windows above the tree line, but few environments in the United States are conducive to this type of propagation. ”

“ Japan took the lead on 3G, and while the United States ultimately caught up to Japan, it took years to roll out 3G networks, which came at a huge cost to U.S. businesses as Japan sprinted forward with its 3G business model. ”

“ This quickly becomes logistically impractical if a person or platform has to carry multiple antennae, particularly at the fighting edge. Additionally, the DoD acquisition system is slow-moving and might take years to deploy the necessary systems for a mmWave network, at which point most of those systems might already be obsolete. Both DoD and the FCC are currently prioritizing mmWave over sub-6 mid-band spectrum with a particular focus on the 28 and 37 GHz bands, but this is a fundamentally flawed focus due to the impracticality of mmWave deployment. ”

“ Historical shifts between wireless generations suggest that the first-mover country stands to gain billions in revenue accompanied by substantial job creation and leadership in technology innovation. First movers also set standards and practices that were then adopted by subsequent entrants. Conversely, countries that fell behind in previous wireless generation shifts were obligated to adopt the standards, technologies, and architectures of the leading country and missed out on a generation of wireless capabilities and market potential. ”

“ Massive MIMO is an antenna array that will greatly expand the number of simultaneous connections and throughput, and will give base stations the ability to send and receive signals from many more users at once and increase the capacity of networks significantly, assuming multiple RF paths to users exist. ”

“ Millions of messages going in all directions, crossing and recrossing one another, as is done every day by wire, are probably an impossibility by wireless telephony. Weird and little-understood conditions of the ether, static electricity, radio disturbances, make wireless work uncertain, and such a thing as twenty-four-hour service, seven days in the week, can probably never be guaranteed. In radio communication all must use a common medium, and as its use increases, so also do the difficulties. The privacy of the wire is also lacking with the wireless telephone. ”

“ Truly the science of radio-telegraphy has made rapid strides since the days of the “coherer,” until now, after the war, it is the most advanced in our human civilisation, and at the same time full of romance. Not a month passes but something new is discovered in that high-built, well-knit laboratory, where daily the keenest brains of wireless experimenters are at work devising, testing, and too often scrapping new instruments, new circuits, and new devices in order to improve and render less complicated both the ordinary wireless by Morse, and that modern marvel, the wireless telephone. ”