John Venn

“ If it really were the case that in arranging in order a series of incorrect observations or attempts of our own, and a collection of natural objects belonging to some one and the same species or class, we found that the law of their divergence was in each case identical in the long run, we should be naturally disposed to apply the same expression 'Law of Error' to both instances alike, though in strictness it could only be appropriate to the former. ”

“ Now the way in which the Method of Least Squares is sometimes spoken of tends to conceal the magnitude of this distinction. Writers have regarded it as synonymous with the Law of Error, whereas the fact is that the two are not only totally distinct things but that they have scarcely even any necessary connection with each other. The Law of Error is the statement of a physical fact ; it simply assigns, with more or less of accuracy, the relative frequency with which errors or deviations of any kind are found in practice to present themselves. ”

“ In some of the classes of things to which the law is supposed to apply, for example, the successions of heads and tails in the throws of a penny, there is no limit to the magnitude of the fluctuations which may and will occur. Postulate as long a succession of heads or of tails as we please, and if we could only live and toss long enough for it we should succeed in getting it at length. In other cases, including many of the applications of Probability to natural phenomena, there can hardly fail to be such limits. ”

“ For one thing, the causes of deflection will seldom or never be really independent of one another. Some of them will generally be of a kind such that the supposition that several are swaying in one direction, may affect the capacity of each to produce that full effect which it would have been capable of if it had been left to do its work alone. In the common example, for instance, of firing at a mark, so long as we consider the case of the tolerably good shots the effect of the wind (one of the causes of error) will be approximately the same whatever may be the precise direction of the bullet. ”

“ Here human volition or intervention of any kind seem to have little or nothing to do with the matter. It is optional with us to collect the measures, but the things measured are quite outside our control. They would therefore be commonly described as being altogether the production of nature, and it would not be supposed that in strictness chance had anything whatever to do with the matter. ”

“ Allowing the various statistics such credit as they deserve, for their extent, appropriateness, accuracy and so on, the general conclusion which will on the whole be drawn by almost every one who takes the trouble to consult them, is that they do, in large part, conform approximately to one type or law, at any rate for all except the extreme values. ”

“ Stated as above, namely, that there is a fixed invariable human type to which all individual specimens of humanity may be regarded as having been meant to attain, but from which they have deviated in one direction or another, according to a law of deviation capable of à priori determination, the doctrine is little else than absurd. ”

“ We are speaking here, it must be understood, only of symmetrical curves: if there is asymmetry, i.e. if the Law of Error is different on different sides of the mean, a comparatively very small number of observations would suffice to detect the fact. But, granted symmetry and rapid decrease of frequency on each side of the mean, we could generally select some one species of the exponential curve which should pretty closely represent our statistics in the neighbourhood of the mean. That is, where the statistics are numerous we could secure agreement ”

“ We will take for examination an instance of a kind with which the investigations of Quetelet will have served to familiarize some readers. Suppose that we measure the heights of a great many adult men in any town or country. These heights will of course lie between certain extremes in each direction, and if we continue to accumulate our measures it will be found that they tend to lie continuously between these extremes; that is to say, that under those circumstances no intermediate height will be found to be permanently unrepresented in such a collection of measurements. ”

“ Besides the instance of the heights of men, other classes of observations of a somewhat similar character have been already referred to as collected and arranged by Quetelet. From the nature of the case, however, there are not many appropriate ones at hand; for when our object is, not to illustrate a law which can be otherwise proved, but to obtain actual direct proof of it, the collection of observations and measurements ought to be made upon such a large scale as to deter any but the most persevering computers from undergoing the requisite labour. ”

“ The last remarks will suggest another kind of proof which might be offered to establish the invariable nature of the law of error. It is of a direct deductive kind, not appealing immediately to statistics, but involving an enquiry into the actual or assumed nature of the causes by which the events are brought about. Imagine that the event under consideration is brought to pass, in the first place, by some fixed cause, or group of fixed causes. ”

“ In the third place, the result at which we are aiming may be some fixed magnitude, one and the same in each of our successive attempts, so that if our measurements were rigidly accurate we should merely obtain the same result repeated over and over again. But since all our methods of attaining our aims are practically subject to innumerable imperfections, the results actually obtained will depart more or less, in almost every case, from the real and fixed value which we are trying to secure. ”

“ In accordance with the usual law of error the divergences from the mean grow continuously less numerous as they increase in amount. Now, if we mix up the French and English heights, what will follow? Beginning from the English mean of 5 feet 9 inches, the heights will at first follow almost entirely the law determined by these English conditions, for at this point the English data are very numerous, and the French by comparison very few. But, as we begin to approach the French mean, the numbers will cease to show that continual diminution which they should show, ????? ”

“ Be this however as it may, it is rather a licence of language to talk as if nature had been at work in the same way as one of us; aiming (ineffectually for the most part) at a given result, that is at producing a man endowed with a certain stature, proportions, and so on, who might therefore be regarded as the typical man. ”

“ Deviations exceeding a certain range may not be merely improbable, that is of very rare occurrence, but they may often from the nature of the case be actually impossible. And even when they are not actually impossible it may frequently appear on examination that they are only rendered possible by the occasional introduction of agencies which are not supposed to be available in the production of the more ordinary or intermediate values. ”

“ For not only is it impossible for them to fall below this point: long before they reach it the influence of its proximity is felt in enhancing the difficulty and importance of the same amount of absolute difference. ”

“ After what was said in the last chapter, it need hardly be insisted upon that the interest and significance of such investigations as these are almost entirely dependent upon the statistics being very extensive. In one or other of Quetelet's works on Social Physics [1] will be found a selection of measurements of almost every element which the physical frame of man can furnish:—his height, his weight, the muscular power of various limbs, the dimensions of almost every part and organ, and so on. ”

“ Doubtless the effect is trifling here, but I apprehend that if we were carefully to scrutinize the modes in which the several elements of the total cause conspire together, we should find that the assumption of absolute independence was hazardous, not to say unwarrantable, in a very great number of cases. These brief remarks upon the process by which the deflections are brought about must suffice for the present purpose, as the subject will receive a fuller investigation in the course of the next chapter. ”

“ His worst shots must be supposed to be brought about by a combination of such causes as were acting, or prepared to act, in every other case; the extreme instance of what we may thus term 'fair usage' being when a number of distinct causes have happened to conspire together so as to tend in the same direction, instead of, as in the other cases, more or less neutralizing one another's work. ”

“ If however we suppose to increase without limit, as in the former supposition, the unsymmetry gradually disappears and we tend towards precisely the same exponential form as if we had begun with two equal terms. ”

“ Now suppose these heights to be marshalled in the order of their magnitude. What we always find is something of the following kind;—about the middle point between the extremes, a large number of the results will be found crowded together: a little on each side of this point there will still be an excess, but not to so great an extent; and so on, in some diminishing scale of proportion, until as we get towards the extreme results the numbers thin off and become relatively exceedingly small. ”

“ But the aggregate effect of such causes may well be supposed to be limited. The man will not discharge his shot nearly at right angles to the true line of fire unless some entirely new cause comes in, as by some unusual circumstance having distracted his attention, or by his having had some spasmodic seizure. ”

“ In a greater number of cases, however, it would only be the most part of them that would tell in one direction, whilst a few did what they could to counteract the rest; the result being a comparatively larger number of somewhat smaller deflections. ”

“ Practically, none but soldiers being measured in any great numbers. the English stature did not afford accurate data on any large scale. The statistics given a few pages further on are probably far more trustworthy. ”

“ In a certain proportion of cases, and these the most numerous of all, we should find that we got five heads and five tails; in a somewhat less proportion of cases we should have, as equally frequent results, four heads six tails, and four tails six heads ”