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“ Yet, although the Solar System is many worlds with countless strange phenomena, still its scientific treasures are miniscule in comparison to those of the Galaxy. Interplanetary space travel is no longer a dream, but a reality? ”

“ Unfortunately, AI is currently taking the empirical technology approach to hypothesis formulation. There is nothing mysterious about the theoretical approach it may be started by research into the 'patterns of logical inference by which hypotheses are formulated. Such an approach is limited only by the degree to which hypothesis formulation is logical and inferential. On the condition that it is, then the theoretical technology does not face a real world barrier to achieving full machine-hypothesis generating capability. ”

“ This is not true theoretical technology, however, because no general model of the full process is available and, consequently, an integrated set of model-derived rules of production is not possible. Empirical technology, but not theoretical technology, is ultimately self-limiting within any given field of technology. That is, there is a level of technological capability beyond which empirical techniques cannot penetrate. This level is a function of empirical technology's pattern of development, not of the world itself. ”

“ It may be that the best way to handle the problem of computer vision is to find a way to largely avoid it altogether.
When the seed unpacks itself it opens into a rather wild environment full of hills, bumps, ledges, crevasses, boulders, craters, and rocks. Surface navigation by mobile robots will be a serious challenge to Al technology. How will a machine know where it is, what the terrain ahead may be like, or how to get home? Laser tracking is one possibility, but probably too complicated when out of line of sight. ”

“ As exploration goals are extended into the farthest reaches of space, development of nontraditional techniques and systems requiring a lesser dependency on Earth-based operations and possessing far greater autonomy become increasingly desirable and necessary. It is in this spirit that the Titan Demonstration Mission is proposed - anticipation of the potential for advanced machine intelligence eventually to permit fully autonomous exploration of the interstellar domain, a capability born of earlier demonstrations within the closer context of the Solar System. ”

“ The lack of a world model in present-day spacecraft makes necessary a voluminous and costly stream of highly redundant data which must be transmitted and collected on the ground before any useful information is retrieved, leaving a huge reservoir of unprocessed data in expensive storage facilities. It is the world model which transforms IESIS from a collection of remote cameras into an entity able to perceive the planet in a manner interesting and informative to humans. ”

“ A much more serious problem for development in the area of machine intelligence is the scientific analysis of data and the autonomous formulation of hypotheses and theories. Current expert systems technology cannot generate and test unique hypotheses that have not been preprogrammed by a human operator. This limitation restricts an exploratory device based on state-of-the-art AI to data analysis, categorization, and classification in terms of existing structures of thought or taxonomies of knowledge. ”

“ In the general area of communication between man and machine, a few tasks are already well handled by available languages. For example, in the area of numerical computations the present formal languages, while not perfect, are highly serviceable. When one considers the introduction of sophisticated computer systems into environments where it is necessary for them to communicate frequently, competently, and rapidly with people who are not specialists in computer programming, then the need for improvement in man machine communication capability quickly becomes apparent. ”

“ One possible solution, and a potentially valuable technology driver, is an advanced type of expert system able to update and modify its own knowledge base as a result of experience that is, as a result of the analytical actions which it performs on its own environment. On Earth the advent of such an advanced system would eliminate time- consuming and costly human analysis and reprogramming typical of state-of-the-art expert systems (which would be particularly inefficient in space applications where huge time delays often must be accommodated) . ”

“ When mining machines break down somewhere outside, miners must go to them and tow them back if they are immobilized. For example, if a robot has become trapped because of pit wall collapse, from a fall in loose lunar soil, or has become jammed into the surface or under fallen rocks, mining robots are ideal rescuers because they are also the LMF excavation machines and are smart and mobile enough to handle such tasks with ease. Many additional mining-related functions conceivably could be performed by a robot system capable of the most general classes of excavation and mining activities. ”

“ How many manipulator arms might the general-purpose teleoperator have? Despite man's two arms, the teleoperator will probably need three. Most mechanical operations require just two hands --one to grasp the material and the other to perform some task. A third hand would be useful in holding two objects to be joined, or in aiming a television camera (or other appropriate sensor) . In many two-handed operations on Earth the human worker moves his head "to get a better look" -the third teleoperator arm would move the man's remote eyes for that purpose. ”

“ In such a context, the emphasis shifts from finding observation strategies which yield absolutely unique sensor signatures for identifying the condition of the world, to observing only what is necessary to identify the state of the world in the context of the world model. The theory of observation can be viewed as part of the world model, and represents a large part of the knowledge necessary to connect sensor-encoded information with more human-oriented descriptions of reality contained in the world model database. ”

“ It cannot be emphasized too strongly that the analysis of actual scientific discoveries is valid only as an existence argument for abduction, not as a research program for mechanizing it. Investigations into the logical process underlying abductive inference certainly is a first step toward mechanizing the invention of new or revised scientific laws and concepts. ”

“ The important related area of reasoning relative to open world databases is just beginning to be investigated (Reiter, 1980) . The general problem of representing the external world in an appropriate machine representation is a fundamental unsolved problem. While many facts are representtable in many ways, no known representation is adequate to handle even such common phenomenon as a glass of water falling to the floor and breaking. It is likely that a fundamental shift in current approaches is required to achieve adequate representations for much of "common" world knowledge. ”

“ Economy is perhaps the most important reason- why robotic devices and teleoperated machines will play a decisive role in space industrialization. A conservative estimate of the cost of safely maintaining a human crew in orbit, including launch and recovery, is approximately $2 million per year per person (Heer, 1979) . Since previous NASA mission data indicate that astronauts can perform only 1 or 2 hr of zero-gravity extravehicular activities (EVA) per day, the cost per astronaut is on the order of $10,000/hr as compared to about $10-100/hr for ground based workers. ”

“ Theoretical technology need not be self-limiting. Since it is based on a model, the above effect may not be present. Theoretical technology is thus able to push technological development in a given field to the maximum extent consistent with whatever real-world limitations characterize the field. This discussion sets the stage for a consideration of the type of intelligence capability which can realistically be expected from machine intelligence research. ”

“ The essence of "knowing" in the context of a given environment is the ability to organize and thereby reduce the complexity and variety of perceived events, entities, and processes in the surroundings - a broad general class of rational activity required for machine-intelligent space exploration systems. ”

“ An underlying premise is the commitment to an ongoing program of space exploration and utilization. While space exploration can be accomplished largely using unmanned, highly automated craft, space utilization involves a wide range of activities where human and versatility are invaluable. It can be argued activity involving human participation ultimately preprogrammed and accomplished by machine, equally true that at present total automation intelligence that any can be but it is would be prohibitively expensive. ”

“ Price reduction requires that images be processed without costly manual procedures, and that the physical satellite system be managed so as to obtain a maximum of useful data for the given configuration of orbits and sensors. It seems possible to design and construct, by the year 2000, a largely autonomous system that can directly interface with individual users in natural language, accept requests for information, and provide answers based on satellite observations coupled with a resident theoretical model of the state of the world. ”

“ In practice, this approach might not require building totally autonomous selfreplicating automata, but only a largely automated system of diverse components that could be integrated into a production system able to grow exponentially to reach any desired goal. Such systems for large-scale space use would necessarily come as the end result of a long R&D process in advanced automation, robotics, and machine intelligence, with developments at each incremental stage finding wide use both on Earth and in space in virtually every sphere of technology. ”

“ The job of constructing a world model may be broken down into two separate categories: building an atmospheric model and examining processes in the surface environment, described below. Since a great deal of work is under way at NASA and at various universities in the analysis of Landsat and weather satellite information, it can be anticipated that much of the groundwork in the techniques for assembling a planetary model will have been laid long before deployment of the Titan mission. ”

“ For example, it is extremely inefficient for an Earth-sensing satellite to "rediscover" a lake, road, or city on every orbital pass. The truly important aspects of the object are its fundamental attributes area, temperature, color, texture, etc. - many of which are either constant or predictable. The use of a world model to eliminate continual rediscovery of such features could greatly reduce the extraordinary redundancy of most visual imagery.
All object attributes studied must reflect worthwhile goals. One goal should be the assembly of a historical record of Earth features. ”

“ To plausibly demonstrate materials closure, it must be shown that every item on the requirements list can be derived from other items on the list and that all elements are derived from those found in the lunar regolith. To fully and rigorously demonstrate closure, a detailed element-by-element breakdown of the entire factory would be required, giving the mass of each element or process chemical required followed by a convincing demonstration that such quantities could indeed be produced using only the amounts of other substances known to be available and an input of lunar material. ”

“ Thus, it is not at all clear that a theory of abduction adequate for machine intelligence applications must await a full understanding of human cognition. Quite the contrary; the preferred approach is to attempt to develop a theory of abductive inference on the basis of a direct logical analysis, retreating to the more fundamental problem of human cognition only if the techniques of logical analysis fail. ”

“ Almost certainly, a rapid evolution of ideas and technology will occur after a short period of system use. If the system is not to be the seed of its own rapid obsolescence, it is imperative that it be flexible enough to accommodate new modes of observation including new equipment and new processing procedures.
The general philosophy of providing a flexible information system for the sophisticated user virtually demands that the user be able to specify new algorithms for controlling the data accumulation and data-analysis processes. ”

“ A natural language capability in computers is required primarily in two kinds of circumstances - (1) where the nature of the information to be transferred warrants the flexibility and generality of a natural language, in distinction to a more specialized language, and (2) where, because of the number, nature, or condition of the humans involved, it is impractical to have the humans communicate in a formal language. There are additional considerations of convenience to the user, and attracting users who otherwise might be reluctant to use the available computer facilities. ”

“ But if the processes underlying the phenomena of the new world are not well- represented by the fundamental models, automated combined reconnaissance and exploration missions will require abductive inference. Abduction is at the top of both orderings. It is the most difficult as well as the heart of knowledge invention. An automated system capable of abductive reasoning could successfully undertake missions combining reconnaissance, exploration, and intensive study. ”

“ Atmospheric modeling should begin early in the approach to an unknown planet since many mode-of- exploration decisions require information on the nature of the atmosphere. During the course of the mission the atmospheric model accumulates greater detail with continuous updating as higher sensor resolution is achieved and probes are deployed for direct measurements. The investigation of an atmosphere differs from studies of surface characteristics in that it involves the complex integration of many interrelated subhypotheses and measurements of numerous allied parameters. ”

“ Scheduling, performance monitoring, and system control also imply data management requirements, as does sensor management. A fundamental element of a user-oriented system is an extensive directory service as well as a capability to model the user, to know the context of his requests and his level of sophistication. On-line tutorial capabilities are appropriate for a diverse user community, and provide valuable input to the development of a user model. Knowledge-base systems and constructs such as semantic networks can contribute greatly to NASA's data management capability. ”