Meteorologist

“ To recur to the problem of the meteorologist of to-day, it assumes three distinct phases: first, from a number of observations extending through many years and over a large expanse of land or sea, to discover the laws of atmospheric phenomena; second, from an unbroken series of observations at any one place, through a sufficiently long period to eliminate all merely adventitious changes, to determine the climate of that place ”

“ Nearly 200 years of observation had not, however, noticeably improved the weather, and the naive faith in the power of instruments to reveal its mysteries, which had possessed many an early meteorologist, no longer charmed the scientist of the early 19th century. ”

“ While these practical results are exceedingly worthy of attention, and inspire us with the hope that the time shall come when perfected instruments, improved methods, and increased knowledge, shall enable the meteorologist to predict with the utmost certainty every atmospheric disturbance, they yet fall into the shade when compared with the magnificent and luminous conceptions which meteorology has added to cosmological science. ”

“ It is the expectation of the meteorologist that some day he will be able to accurately forecast the weather for weeks and months in advance. What a wonderful conservation of human energy would result if it were possible to tell the farmer when the great corn and wheat belts would have abundant rain during the next growing season, or when droughts would parch and wither the vegetation ”

“ The meteorologist is able to tell with mathematical accuracy in his laboratory, after a glance at his instruments, not only the direction of the prevailing wind, but the atmospheric pressure and the degree of humidity as well. ”

“ The advantages of concert of action between the meteorologist on land and the navigator at sea were so obvious that, looking forward to the establishment of a universal system of meteorological observation upon both elements, it was thought that the consideration of scales would with greater propriety be left for that or some such occasion. ”

“ From this review of the development of the ballons-sondes it is evident that they offer possibilities of obtaining data in the high atmosphere, perhaps up to fifteen miles or more, which, though subject to inaccuracies, are of great interest to the physicist and astronomer. The meteorologist is chiefly concerned with that portion of the atmosphere which lies within two or three miles of the earth, and he requires, moreover, accurate measurements for his conclusions. ”

“ As the meteorologist, studying the reports from North, South, East and West, can trace the progress of storm and wind, so these intelligent observers can predict what will be talked about next, and how soon the first murmurs will reach their shores. ”

“ Happily, our meteorologists are at length beginning to define with growing clearness and confidence the laws which underlie and regulate the complicated and ever varying phenomena which we call the weather, and many of these laws, like most natural laws, are beautiful in their simplicity. Although ‘weather wisdom’ is as old as history itself, the science of the weather or meteorology is a growth of the last few years. The weather wisdom of our forefathers may in the light of present knowledge be divided into sense and nonsense. ”

“ It should need no insisting on that the data required by meteorologists are not sufficiently supplied by the readings of instruments placed on or near the ground, or by the set of the wind as determined by a vane planted on the top of a pole or roof of a building. The chief factors in our meteorology are rather those broader and deeper conditions which obtain in higher regions necessarily beyond our ken, until those regions are duly and diligently explored. ”

“ The causes of this variation apparently lie above our lower atmosphere and move slowly eastward from day to day, and as the variability is comparable with that of other atmospheric data, therefore conservative meteorologists at present confine their attention to the explanation of terrestrial phenomena under the assumption of a constant solar radiation. The large local changes of weather and climate are not due to changes in the sun, but to the mechanical and thermodynamic interactions of earth and ocean and atmosphere. ”

“ It is by virtue of developments in this field that meteorology has become “a science of three dimensions.” Formerly meteorologists could do but little more than study the bottom of the weather, so to speak; but now they observe it and chart it at all levels. The weather forecaster has daily reports of conditions aloft to aid his predictions both for dwellers on terra firma and for the aeronaut; while the accumulated data of upper-air observations are throwing new light on many difficult atmospheric problems.
Scientific balloon ascents are no novelty. ”

“ As the Committee of the Scottish Meteorological Society recently said, "This truly cosmopolitan work, which the United States are alone in a position to undertake, thanks to the liberality and enterprise of their Government, will bring before us month by month the general circulation of the earth's atmosphere, and raise if it does not satisfy many inquiries lying at the very root of meteorology, and intimately affecting those atmospheric changes which meteorologists have been recording." ”

“ This bold step brought meteorologists face to face with a quite new problem. From the air pressure, the temperature, the moisture, and the winds observed at a certain hour of the day at various spots and telegraphed to a central station, they had to infer the next probable state of weather. So, leaving aside the great problems of atmospheric circulation, they directed their attention to the changes of weather rather than to the causes of the changes. [2] For this purpose purely empirical laws were of great value. ”

“ Man is so profoundly affected by weather changes from day to day that all civilized countries have established weather services. Observers taking regular weather records are stationed at thousands of different places in all parts of the world, and the observations which they makexii are used by meteorologists in preparing daily weather maps and forecasts, and in studying the conditions of temperature, winds, and rainfall. In the United States alone there are about 3000 of these observers. ”

“ The unpleasant frequency, in this part of the world, of storms of the same character, renders their careful investigation by competent meteorologists a matter of the utmost importance. What is chiefly demanded, therefore, is the collection of such meteorological records and observations as may, perhaps, render it possible to trace completely the rise, progress, and varying intensity of the storm. ”

“ To such a nicety have meteorologists reduced this potent factor in our weather that they can always with a degree of certainty scarcely attainable in other sections, predict the character of the weather coming on. ”

“ However, though we cannot assign exactly the source whence the winds rise or the goal to which they tend, the labors of meteorologists have been so far successful as to enable us to understand the causes of the great currents of air, and even to map out the winds which prevail at different seasons in the various quarters of the globe. ”

“ It must be emphasised that well-trained meteorologists are essential for conducting thoroughly satisfactory observations, for there are many errors that unguided amateurs are apt to commit, however conscientious they may be in the task set them. ”

“ Experience and judgment have taught pilots how to avoid dangers that confront them. It remains for meteorologists to fix definite standards and to express varying visibility in terms that are comprehensible and intelligible to all. Moreover, in many instances, changes in visibility may be forecast with a high percentage of verification. ”

“ It must occur to everyone to adopt the intermediate view that, on the one hand, the local vertical circulation, with its clouds, rain, hail and snow, and evolution of latent heat, and, on the other hand the waves and whirls in the general circulation, mutually contribute toward our storms and fair weather. It only remains to allot to each its proper importance in any special case.
Undoubtedly aerial billows, and the clouds that must frequently accompany them, exist everywhere in the earth’s atmosphere. ”

“ The hottest surfaces, even at the rainless portion, where there is no vortex, no storm, and no wind but the continual uniform N. E. horizontal trade-wind, never created, by reason of the heat alone, a mile of wind, a storm or shower.
But, again, the belt of calms, where the air is supposed to rise and create a suction which draws the trades on either side a distance of from one thousand to two thousand miles, an average of three thousand miles in all, at least, is not itself, on an average, over five hundred miles in breadth from north to south. What a wonder of meteorology is here! ”

“ And this is the great principle on which the science of meteorology rests, not only as to winds, but as to weather changes.
Of the sun’s rays which reach the earth, those that fall on the land are absorbed by the surface layer of about 4 feet in thickness. But those that fall on the surface of the ocean penetrate, as shown by the observations of the Challenger Expedition, to a depth of about 500 feet. Hence, in deep waters the temperature of the surface is only partially heated by the direct rays of the sun. In mid-ocean the temperature of the surface scarcely differs 1° Fahr. ”

“ Meteorology is the science of the air. The air is the outer shell, or layer, of the earth; hence it is called the atmosphere, a Greek word meaning “air-sphere”. The movements of the air (the winds) and the variable proportion of water vapor, mingled with and forming a part of it, exert a profound influence which affects the climate, habitability and civilization of the earth.
For the greater part the movements of the air and the variations in the proportion of moisture are the results of changes in temperature. ”

“ The exposure of meteorological apparatus so that the records from different stations on the earth's surface and from vessels on the ocean and from kites or balloons in the atmosphere shall be comparable with each other offers many difficult problems, but the progress toward uniformity throughout the world has been appreciable during the past twenty-five years. Every first-class weather service now keeps close watch of the condition of its apparatus and the correctness of the methods in vogue at its stations. ”

“ It is from similar maps that forecasts of storms are still framed, and suitable warnings issued; and a mass of information is being collected by telegraph from sixty stations in the British Islands, &c., of the state of the weather at eight o’clock every morning, and analysed and arranged at the Meteorological Office in London for the evening’s forecasts over the different districts of the country. A juster knowledge is being now acquired of those great atmospheric movements, and other changes, which form the groundwork of weather-forecasting. ”

“ The study of the atmosphere and its phenomena. Efforts are being made by every civilized nation to apply to the benefit of mankind the knowledge we possess of meteorology, especially to foretell the winds and weather from day to day and the general character of the seasons from season to season. About fifty official governmental weather bureaus receive reports from their stations by telegraph daily, compile weather maps, issue forecasts, and publish weekly, monthly, or annual climatological summaries, together with frequent special meteorological memoirs. ”

“ They survive because they are true. Mariners at sea and shepherds on land learned their lessons well; neither the one nor the other was possessed of a daily weather map. The wind was a fair barometer; the blinking of the stars was an excellent hygrometer. The discovery of the underlying principles of barometric pressure was the beginning of modern meteorology. The use of the barometer quickly appealed to sailors, and practically every deep-water vessel in the world is equipped with one. Transportation companies, lighting companies, farmers and manufacturers find it a necessity. ”

“ These governmental bureaus usually pursue both Climatology and theoretical meteorology in addition to their daily practical work of telegraphy, forecasting, and publication of charts. Although, of course, in most cases, the so-called practical work absorbs the greater part of the labour and the funds, yet everywhere it is recognized that research and the development of a correct theory of the motions of the atmosphere are essential to any important progress in the art of forecasting. ”

“ Whence it follows that the most important problem of meteorology is the investigation of the causes and consequences of the disturbance of indifferent equilibrium of the atmosphere, and the weightiest problem in weather prediction is the investigation of the geographical origin or extraction of air currents pursuing their course above us toward the pole. ”

“ Thus, before meteorology passed from an “art” to “science,” many individuals learned to interpret certain atmospheric phenomena in terms of future weather, and to make reasonably accurate forecasts for short periods into the future.
With the establishment of weather observation stations, continuous and accurate weather information became available. As observations expanded and communication techniques improved, knowledge of simultaneous conditions over wider areas became available. This made possible the collection of “synoptic” reports at civilian and military forecast centers. ”