Market interest rate

“ As it is possible for any investor and for any borrower to choose among these investments and loans, there is practically but one rate, the rate which expresses the general ratio of exchange between present and future income. Owners and investors [Pg 149] take the line of least resistance, get the most they can for their money, and choose whatever form is most advantageous. The interrelations between the various interest rates are therefore close and constant. The market rate of interest thus extends over all forms of wealth and pervades every phase of business. ”

“ If, for instance, men arranging for loans in April, 1862, to be repaid a year later, had known that in the meantime the purchasing power of money would decline 30 per cent., they would have agreed upon a very high rate of interest. Men able to discern the future course of prices would not have lent money at the ordinary rates, and if the rates prevailing in the New York market throughout all 1862 and 1863 were less than 7 per cent., it must have been because the extraordinary rise of prices was not foreseen by borrowers and lenders. ”

“ He believed that interest rates should be the natural ones determined by market forces rather than by the legislature, especially if there was an attempt to lower interest rates underneath their natural rate, which was not only undesirable but easily circumvented. ”

“ The lender, who thus receives in money the full market value of the shares-much more than he would ordinarily realize by pledging them-usually pays interest on the money so received, at the current rate for demand loans. But the rate of interest is a matter of negotiation and agreement, and the deposit may, on occasion, carry no interest, or the borrower of the stock may pay a premium when the stock is greatly in demand. ”

“ It is vital to them to employ all the money on which they pay interest. A little excess therefore forces down the rate of interest very much. But if that low rate of interest should cause, or should aid in causing, a great growth of trade, the rise is sure to be quick, and is apt to be violent. ”

“ If the dominant banks manage ill, the rate of interest will at one time be excessively high, and at another time excessively low: there will be first a pernicious excitement, and next a fatal collapse. But if they manage well, the rate of interest will not deviate so much from the average rate; it will neither ascend so high nor descend so low. As far as anything can be steady the value of money will then be steady, and probably in consequence trade will be steady too—at least a principal cause of periodical disturbance will have been withdrawn from it. ”

“ Therefore, advancing the rate of interest may check for a time, but will not stop altogether, the shipment of bullion, but it may attract here some of the gold held by the Bank of France. The bank rate does not govern the street rate, and a further advance by the bank, which it is very likely may be made, is not to be considered as indicating that we are to have a dearer money market. ”

“ And whenever capital was required, the rate of interest would be such as to be inviting. In other words, the rates of interest would rise, correspondingly with our needs, and the entire commercial world would be our possible market for the commercial paper representing the economic title to the five or six billions of finished goods that are always passing from the producer to the consumers in this country, and to the consumers abroad. ”

“ The business man who values indirect agents above the market rate borrows, and if he miscalculates and fails to make them earn the expected rent, he loses. In this experimental way many other acts are influenced by the prevailing interest rate and in turn affect it, thus aiding to formulate society's estimate of the value of present as compared with future rents. ”

“ A period must elapse sufficient to establish the fact of this downward trend, and to enable the struggles of lenders and borrowers to overcome [Pg 552] habit in fixing a new rate that will correspond to the new earning power of monetary capital. These facts explain what at times looks like a failure of the loan market fully to take account of the fall of prices during a given interval. What that market really does is to base the interest paid in one interval on the business experience of another. ”

“ On the other hand, occasional extraordinary industrial activity, coupled with the annually recurring demands for money during the crop-moving season, causes money stringency, and the calling of loans made to the stock market; an abnormally high interest rate results, attended by violent reaction in speculation and abrupt fall in prices. The pressure to retain funds in the speculative field at these excessively high interest rates tends to a curtailment of reasonable accommodation to commercial and manufacturing interests, frequently causing embarrassment and at times menacing a crisis. ”

“ As we have seen, the real evils of changing price levels do not lie in these changes per se, but in the fact that they usually take us unawares. It has been shown that to be forewarned is to be forearmed, and that a foreknown change in price levels might be so taken into account in the rate of interest as to neutralize its evils. ”

“ THE fall in the rate of interest is one of the most striking facts in the financial history of this generation. At times the price of money has risen, and investors have hoped that the good old rates were to be a permanency ”

“ Conversely, a high rate of interest or the prospect of high rates has the effect of depressing prices, because banking institutions sell their securities in order to lend the money so released. The automatic working of this process tends to produce a constant adjustment between the yields upon free and invested capital. When money rates are low, securities tend to advance to the point where the return upon them is no greater than that derived from the loaning of free capital. When rates are high, securities tend to decline to a point where the return is as great. ”

“ When a few years have elapsed without a crisis, and no new and tempting channel for investment has been opened in the meantime, there is always found to have occurred, in these few years, so large an increase of capital seeking investment, as to have lowered considerably the rate of interest, whether indicated by the prices of securities, or by the rate of discount on bills ”

“ The money in the hands of lenders, in common with all other money, will be enhanced in value, that is, there will be a greater amount of real capital seeking borrowers; while the real capital wanted by borrowers will be only the same as before, and the money amount less: the rate of interest, therefore, will tend to fall. ”

“ If, however, all forms of wealth could be made equally saleable, we should find interest rates rising for those loans and securities which now have the highest saleability. They would lose the peculiarity which now enables them to perform a service as bearer of options. Money-rates and long-time rates of interest would tend to come together. Long-time rates on formerly unsaleable loans would fall, and rates on highly saleable loans would rise. The present low rates in the "money market" grow out of differential advantages. ”

“ Right now, with inflation as low as it is, 3.9 percent, there is room for interest rates to come down. Only fear prevents their reduction. A lender, as we know, must charge an interest rate that recovers the depreciated value of the dollars loaned. And that depreciation is, of course, the amount of inflation. Today, interest rates are based on fear--fear that government will resort to measures, as it has in the past, that will send inflation zooming again. ”

“ Though the rate of interest rises tardily, it rises progressively, and eventually catches up with the rise in prices, owing to the necessity which banks feel of maintaining a reasonable ratio between loans and reserves. ”