Foreign exchange market

“ No rule can be laid down as to what profit bankers expect to make on shipments. If, for instance, a banker owes £200,000 abroad himself and finds it cheaper to send gold than to buy a bill, the question of profit does not enter at all. Then, again, many and many an export transaction is induced by ulterior motives—‌it may be for the sake of advertising, or for stock market purposes, or because some correspondent abroad needs the gold and is willing to pay for it. ”

“ Bankers who know in advance of large issues likely to be made and in which they know they will be asked to participate, often sell "futures" covering the exchange they foresee their participation will bring into existence, but as a general rule it may be set down that heavy issues, involving the sale abroad of large amounts of bonds, are a most depressing factor on the foreign exchange market. ”

“ If it is the case that the selling comes from abroad and that we are buying, large orders for foreign exchange are almost certain to make their appearance and to give the market a very strong tone if not actually to urge it sharply upward. Such orders are not likely to be handled in a way which makes them apparent to everybody, but as a rule it is impossible to execute them without creating a condition in the exchange market apparent to every shrewd observer. ”

“ Just as unusually large imports of commodities mean a sharp demand for exchange with which to pay for them, unusually large exports mean a big supply of bills. In a previous chapter it has been explained how, when merchandise is shipped out of the country, the shipper draws his draft upon the buyer, in the currency of the country to which the merchandise goes. When exports are heavy, therefore, a great volume of bills of exchange drawn in various kinds of currency comes on the market for sale, naturally depressing rates. ”

“ First of all, cross-border payment involves various complicated issues such as monetary sovereignty, foreign exchange policies and arrangements, as well as regulatory and compliance requirements. It is also a challenge that the international community is committed to address. The internationalization of a currency is a natural result of market selection. The international status of a country's currency depends on its economic fundamentals and the depth, efficiency and openness of its financial markets. ”

“ The purpose of this Act is to contribute to the development of the national economy by striving to facilitate foreign transactions, to maintain a balance of international payments and to stabilize the value of currency by ensuring the liberalization of foreign exchange transactions and of other foreign transactions and by revitalizing market functionality. ”

“ During the autumn months, under normal conditions, the advantage is all with the buyer of foreign exchange. By every mail huge packages of bills, drawn against shipments of cotton, wheat and corn, come pouring into the New York market. Bankers' portfolios become crowded with bills; remittances by each steamer, in the case of some of the big bankers, run up, literally, into the millions of dollars. Naturally, any one wanting bankers' exchange is usually able to secure it at a low price. ”

“ But in addition to the amount of foreign money thus employed in these bills of exchange, our vast foreign trade must result in the temporary employment here of the proceeds either of these bills or of goods sold in our market, to be used in the purchase of goods here, for investment, or for safe-keeping in time of trouble, and must greatly add to our available resources. ”

“ And, as a matter of fact, many an operation in the international stocks is based upon judgment as to what the action of the exchange market portends. Similarly—‌the other way around—‌exchange managers very frequently operate in exchange on the strength of what they judge or know is going to happen in the market for the international stocks. With the exchange market sensitive to developments, knowledge that there is to be heavy selling in some quarter of the stock market, from abroad, is almost equivalent to knowledge of a coming sharp rise in exchange on London. ”

“ Money in the summer months is apt to be low and exchange high, affording a good basis on which to sell exchange. Then, if the expected crops materialize, large amounts of exchange drawn against exports will come into the market, forcing down rates and giving the operator who has previously sold his long bills an excellent chance to cover them profitably as they come due. ”

“ It is, of course, of the last importance to keep a watch over the foreign exchanges, as these are affected more or less at certain periods when the imports and exports of special kinds of produce and manufactures are active. ”

“ There are exporters who have been shipping merchandise and selling foreign exchange against the shipments all their lives who have never even heard of a mint par of exchange. All they know is, that when exports are running large and bills in great quantity are being offered, bankers are willing to pay them only low rates—‌$4.83 or $4.84, perhaps, for the commercial bills they want to sell for dollars. ”

“ What the foreign exchange business really is grounded on is the existence of commercial bills called into existence by exports of merchandise.
There are houses doing an extensive exchange business who never buy commercial long bills, but the operations they carry on are made possible only by the fact that most other houses do. A foreign exchange department which does not handle this kind of exchange is necessarily on the "outside" of the real business—‌is like a bond broker who does not carry bonds with his own money but merely trades in and out on other people's operations. ”

“ In addition to these items, which by enquiry could possibly be ascertained, there are the transactions of private firms who may transfer capital from one country to another, and about these no information can ever be obtained. The only outward indication we can have whether there is an undue excess of imports must be in the foreign exchanges, and if these are constantly adverse, without special reasons, and the value of money were to become permanently higher here than in other centres, then there would be reason to fear that our invisible exports are not sufficient. ”

“ Another major cause in the reduction of the foreign exchange resources was the higher level of activity of business firms, particularly those in the export sector. As in the case of firms producing goods for domestic consumption, these export firms were heavily dependent on imported machinery as well as imported raw materials to bring about an expansion in their production. ”

“ Times come, of course, like the year of the Baltimore fire, when losses by these foreign companies greatly outbalance premiums received, the business they do thus resulting in the actual creation of great amounts of foreign exchange, but in the long run—year in, year out—the remitting abroad of the premiums earned means a steady demand for exchange. ”

“ But, if both parties derive advantage from international trade, there is no necessity whatever that this advantage should be equally great on both sides. As in every struggle over prices, the gain here also is greatest on the side of the nation whose desire to hold fast to their own commodities is farthest [Pg 411] from being outweighed by the want of the foreign commodity, and which, at the same time, employs most productively the equivalent received in imports in exchange for its exports. ”

“ A final and accurate determination of the value of each foreign country as a market for American merchandise, a laborious and almost impossible task, would undoubtedly lead to interesting and unexpected results. It would not only make many changes in the list of the most important customers, but would immediately suggest possibilities of more direct trading, which would stimulate American rail, shipping, and financial interests, increase profits by cutting out the middleman, and in the end give added stimulus to American foreign trade. ”

“ We must try to get the optimum advantage out of our limited foreign exchange resources by funnelling them to these industries that can contribute most to our national income. Overcrowding in many industries needing imported capital equipment, investing in many lines of production not basic to our development, and importation of non-essential consumption goods are unnecessary drains on our foreign exchange. We should bring existing industries to their efficient productive capacity before going ahead with any but the most necessary new ventures. ”

“ Financial control over all export transactions is maintained through the licensing system and through implementation of existing exchange-control regulations.
Strict bilateral trade agreements with almost all members of the Soviet bloc have constituted, in effect, a financial ceiling on exports to Eastern Europe. ”

“ Next come the big dealers in exchange, some of whom do a regular exchange business of their own, the same as the bankers, but who also have men out on the street "trading" between large buyers and sellers of bills. Such houses are necessarily closely in touch with banks, bankers, exporters, and importers all over the country, and have always large orders on hand to buy and sell exchange. Some of the bills they handle they buy and use for the conduct of their own business with banks abroad, but the more important part of what they do is to deal in foreign exchange among the banks. ”

“ From the maturities, refunding operations, and interest remittances alone, growing out of the permanent investment of foreign money in our securities, there results a very great amount of international security and exchange business. Whether Europe's investment here amounts to three billions or four billions or five billions, it is impossible to say ”

“ The force of the axiom that, with regard to the balance of trade, to contract a foreign loan is equivalent to an increase of exportation, will subsequently be more fully felt when the correctives of an unfavorable exchange come to be discussed. ”

“ Under such conditions it is not difficult to see how hard it is to make any money to speak of out of foreign exchange brokerage.
The dealers, of course, fare much better. Handling commercial bills where the question of credit affects the price, they have a chance to make more of a profit, and buying and selling bills for their own account they naturally are entitled to make more than the man without capital, who simply tries to get in between the buyer and the seller. ”

“ Less than two years hence, the tariff levies on our exports to the United States will be in operation. By that time we shall be manufacturing articles and goods needing export markets and facing stiff competition there. We must therefore, attend to the problem of foreign trade promotion. We must locate markets for our products. This means that our home production should be placed on a competitive basis abroad not only in price but in quality. But more than anything else, our home market should be developed in order to promote our foreign trade. ”

“ Full decontrol may obviously be accompanied by an increase in price of imports, but it will create conditions favorable for the establishment of new industries to increase production for export and employment and, in the long run, stabilize prices. With the savings of foreign exchange resulting from the reduction of imports of consumer goods, we shall have more resources available for the importation of machineries and equipment to expand industrial production. ”

“ In the case of England and Germany, as well as many other prosperous countries whose foreign-trade sheets show an excess of imports over exports, this excess represents the profit on trading abroad, and the inflow of returns upon capital invested abroad. ”

“ V. Nothing tends to introduce an advantageous foreign trade more than low and determined prices. In the first place, it draws strangers to market. This we call passive commerce. Secondly, it gives merchants an opportunity to distribute the productions of their country with greater advantage among other nations, which is what we call active foreign trade. ”

“ The vulgar theory disregards this benefit and deems the advantage of commerce to reside in the exports: as if not what a country obtains, but what it parts with, by its foreign trade, was supposed to constitute the gain to it. An extended market for its produce—an abundant consumption for its goods—a vent for its surplus—are the phrases by which it has been customary to designate the uses and recommendations of commerce with foreign countries. ”

“ The subject of foreign exchange should be familiar, the fluctuations having an important bearing on purchasing power and trade, while exchange itself is dependent on foreign trade conditions, being an index of international transactions. ”

“ All the main elements of the problem of foreign exchange have now been examined—British exchange control, the sterling area, the payments agreements with foreign countries, the value of British reserves and external investments and the process of turning the latter into current cash, import restrictions, the export drive, the mounting total of overseas war expenditure. ”

“ Although then the rise in the price of most of our own commodities, would for a time check exportation generally, and might permanently prevent the exportation of a few commodities, it could not materially interfere with foreign trade, and would not place us under any comparative disadvantage as far as regarded competition in foreign markets. ”

“ More than 80 per cent of imports last year were capital goods and raw materials. Only the balance of 20 per cent went to consumer goods. The increase in export production and the modified import pattern reflected an overall economic gain for the country in foreign trade.
As we can see, our foreign exchange earnings have not kept pace with the rising internal demand for imports. The gap had to be financed from our international reserve so that our development program would not be paralyzed at its crucial first stages. ”