Growth rate

“ But if we are to limit our study to industrial growth, we see a more outstanding performance instead of the 6.4 percent growth recorded from 1967 to 1972. I refer to the record of industrial growth in the latter part of the 70's, when it ave­raged an annual growth rate of 8.3 percent. And this will no doubt increase even more dramatically with the acceleration of the momentum of industrialization which we have set as a program espe­cially with the eleven chosen basic factories and industries we are developing. ”

“ But the other cause -- it's not the growth that is where you're going to find the conservative estimate -- Q Can I just ask you, is it not true that the average -- and even this year's or next year's projected annual growth rate -- is higher for every year annually for the next 10 years than an economist would expect growth to be this year? ”

“ Wide year-to-year fluctuations in agricultural production over the past six years resulted in not only an uneven growth rate, but one that did not equal the 3% annual increase in population.
GDP: $4.6 billion, per capita $470; real growth rate 5.3% (1988 est.) ”

“ Now, here in London at this year's economic summit, it's clear we've made impressive gains. In 1981 our economies had an average growth rate of only 1.8 percent and 8 1/2-percent inflation. Today our average growth rate has risen to 4 percent, while inflation has been cut in half. Stronger growth means more jobs with the U.S.. economy leading the way. ”

“ The economy will grow by an average of 5 percent during my term. My ever-carping critics say that this target is unambitious and lower than that of our Asian neighbors. I should remind them that this growth rate is much higher than what we achieved in the past. And if I can, for the first time, defeat the boom-bust cycle, my successor will have a good shot at achieving tiger-economy growth rates. ”

“ In fiscal year 1972, the current one, our aim is to raise the economy's growth by 6.5 percent. Based on the economy's performance this year of 6.5 per cent expansion, we are now on the way to achieving our fiscal year 1972 targets for the economy. Thereafter, we aim to attain a seven per cent annual growth rate.
Social Orientation of the Development Plan
However, growth rates alone convey no meaning unless planning itself can guarantee that this growth reaches the widest possible number of beneficiaries within a certain period. ”

“ A Retarded Growth of Population.—If Malthusianism, as most people understood it, were true, population should increase most rapidly during this period of great prosperity, and should do its best to neutralize the effect of new lands, new capital, and new methods. In some places the increase has been abnormally rapid, and in a local way this has had its effect; but if we include in our view the whole of what we have defined as civilized industrial society, the rate of growth has not become more rapid, but has rather become slower during this period. ”

“ Inventions and discoveries, too, occur only occasionally, while the increase of population and capital are continuous agencies. It therefore seldom happens that improvement, even during a short time, has so much the start of population and capital as actually to lower rent, or raise the rate of profits. There are many countries in which the growth of population and capital is not rapid, but in these agricultural improvement is less active still. Population almost everywhere treads close on the heels of agricultural improvement, and effaces its effects as fast as they are produced. ”

“ STRUCTURE AND GROWTH
Data on gross output and national income in absolute terms have not been published. Official statistics on these social accounts have been limited to a few index series for overall, productive sector, and per capita values and a percentage breakdown of gross output and national income by productive sector. The arbitrary nature of the pricing system and differences in statistical treatment compared to Western practice preclude a direct comparison of the published growth rates of the economy and its components with similar rates in Western countries. ”

“ At present our total national production is $255 billion a year. Our working population and our output per worker are increasing. If our productive power continues to increase at the same rate as it has increased over the past 50 years, our total national production 50 years from now will be nearly four times as much as it is today. Allowing for the expected growth in population, this would mean that the real income of the average family in the year 2000 A.D. would be about three times what it is today. ”

“ ON TRUE COMPOUND INTEREST AND THE LAW OF ORGANIC GROWTH. Let there be a quantity growing in such a way that the increment of its growth, during a given time, shall always be proportional to its own magnitude. This resembles the process of reckoning interest on money at some fixed rate; for the bigger the capital, the bigger the amount of interest on it in a given time. ”

“ The high growth rates were made possible by an official policy that allocated more than 30 percent of national income to investment. Growth rates in the 1966-70 period were somewhat lower than in the preceding five years, with the exception of agriculture, the performance of which was slightly better. ”

“ The American economy is experiencing its longest period of sustained growth in more than a generation, with more than 15 million new jobs, the lowest unemployment rate since 1970, and the lowest inflation rate in more than 30 years. ”

“ We must emphasize that in 1963, the improvement of the rate of economic growth shall be the main objective of our vigorous and sustained efforts. In the final analysis, it will be the resulting and solid economic foundation that will bring about the lasting benefits to our people. ”

“ Real GDP grew by an average 10% in 1986-91, then paused to a "mere" 5% in 1992-93, moved back up to 8% in 1994 and 9% in 1995, and about 7% in 1996. With a much higher standard of living and with a considerable easing of authoritarian controls, the work pace has softened. Growth rates will probably slow down over the medium term. ”

“ In most sectors, achievements have sur­passed expectations. The target growth rates for the first year of the program were 5.0 per cent for real national income and 5.8 per cent for real gross national product. ”

“ But it will require new dimensions of political will and institutional cooperation to achieve it. (See Chapter 7 for a wider discussion of these issues and recommendations.)
5. Industry: Producing More with Less 66. The world manufactures seven times more goods today than it did as recently as 1950. Given population growth rates, a five-to tenfold increase in manufacturing output will be needed just to raise developing world consumption of manufactured goods to industrialized world levels by the time population growth rates level off next century. ”

“ A number of factors have conspired to bring about this most remarkable expansion of the industry. The growth in stock-raising and the increase of the population are, of course, important considerations, but the development of the industry has been out of all proportion to either of these. ”

“ Combine these signs of economic confidence with a strong recovery in one industry after another—15 consecutive monthly increases in industrial production, business investments stronger than expected, growing research in science and technology, and a welcome rebirth of productivity growth, and we can understand how the United States economy created nearly 5 million jobs in the last 15 months and has become the engine for a new era of worldwide economic expansion. ”

“ The working population can increase if formerly unproductive workers are transformed into productive ones, or if parts of the population who previously performed no work, such as women, children and paupers, are drawn into the process of production. Here, however, we shall ignore this aspect. Lastly, the working population can increase through an absolute increase in population. If accumulation is to proceed steadily and continuously, it must be grounded in an absolute growth of the population, though this may decline in comparison with the capital employed. ”

“ As I said, we've got experts from a wide range of business sectors, and what we're going to talk about is, are there mechanisms that we can start putting in place where we see the kind of growth that used to characterize the U.S. economy -- export-driven growth, manufacturing growth, growth that pays high wages and provides high living standards for a broad-based middle class. ”

“ Real GDP growth averaged a remarkable 8% in 1987-88, slowed to 3.0% in 1989-90, and picked up to 4.2% in 1991, 5.0% in 1992, 5.2% in 1993, 5.5% in 1994, 4.8% in 1995, 4.7% in 1996, and an estimated 5.5% in 1997. ”

“ Actual growth in real terms of our Gross National Product increased from 6.2 per cent in 1966 and 1967 to 6.4 per cent in 1968 and 6.5 per cent in 1969.
Our economy is on the verge of take-off to self-sustaining growth. ”

“ That the growth of population will overpass the increase of production, there is not much reason to apprehend. It is, however, quite possible that there might be a great progress in industrial [pg 477] improvement, and in the signs of what is commonly called national prosperity; a great increase of aggregate wealth, and even, in some respects, a better distribution of it ”

“ There are other commodities where saturation has not been reached. Increasing efficiency not only releases labor and direction for greater production of these things but enables their wider diffusion over the population. A selection of such industries shows a growth of 60 per cent in the last decade. ”

“ As usual with economics, it's the figures that tell the story. During the third quarter of this year, our gross national product rose at a healthy annual rate of 3.8 percent. This was spurred in turn by new business investment, which is soaring at a truly remarkable rate of 24 percent. ”

“ You've probably seen in the paper in the last few days a number of private economists are now downsizing their estimates for surpluses, showing that, in fact, economic growth is related to the surpluses at some point. ”

“ We increase, therefore, in population, at the rate of about four per centum per annum. Supposing the increase of our production to be in the same ratio, we should, every succeeding year, have of surplus produce, four per centum more than that of the preceding year, without taking into the account the differences of seasons which neutralize each other. If, therefore, we are to rely upon the foreign market exclusively, foreign consumption ought to be shown to be increasing in the same ratio of four per centum per annum, if it be an adequate vent for our surplus produce. ”

“ The opinion may be ventured that it is characteristic of such industrial arrangements as have prevailed in the United States, that the tendency towards diffusion of the results of advances in production (obscured, besides, by the growth of population) should lag seriously behind the tendency towards concentration. ”

“ Encouraging progress was made in structural adjustment. The service sector as a proportion of GDP rose to 50.5%, accounting for more than half for the first time. The contribution of consumption toward economic growth reached 66.4%. ”

“ There has been in the past decade an unparalleled growth of our industrial and commercial efficiency and our consequent ability to consume. I do not refer to that growth of productivity which should naturally be expected to accompany the addition of 14 millions to our population during the last decade, nor do I refer to the increase in dollar figures due to higher prices. Entirely over and above these contributions to increased figures, we are producing a larger amount of commodities per capita than ever before in our history. ”

“ Looking ahead, the forecasters are projecting that next year we will enjoy even stronger economic growth. They suggest that the gross national product will rise by a healthy 3.2 percent, which should translate into lower unemployment, more jobs, and higher take-home pay. ”

“ Because improvement has never in reality been sudden, but always slow; at no time much outstripping, and often falling far short of, the growth of capital and population, which tends as much to raise rent, as the other to lower it, and which is enabled, as we shall presently see, to raise it much higher, by means of the additional margin afforded by improvements in agriculture. First, however, we must examine in what manner the sudden cheapening of agricultural produce would affect profits and wages. ”

“ In 1988 the economy achieved a 5.6% growth in real GDP on the strength of a boost in construction, higher agricultural production, and growth of the small manufacturing sector based on soap and garment industries. ”

“ It will be noticed that the figures just given involve such a decrease in the percentage of growth. A simple differentiation of the formula gives as the percentage of increase of the population per decade 32 per cent, in 1790, 24 per cent, in 1880, 13 per cent, in 1990, while in one thousand years it will have sunk to a little less than three per cent. But according to the formula this percentage of increase will become zero, or the population become stationary, only after the lapse of an indefinite period. ”

“ Properly we should substract productivity growth, but for our purposes we may now assume that productivity is constant. Note that wage inflation can be different from price inflation, since productivity is determined in terms of the output price, and output will not be only consumer goods but also exports, investments and intermediates. ”

“ However, real GDP growth is not really affected, since the annual change in inventory is a very small percentage of GDP. Thus, business success stories that are based upon inventory reduction - which is regarded as efficiency improvement at the micro level - can be reconciled with stagnation at the macro economic level. ”