Speculation (investment)

“ If the public would learn the A B C of investment, and also learn that there is an essential difference between investment and speculation, that they will not blend easily but are likely to spoil one another if one tries to mix them, then the whole business of loan issuing and company promotion would be on a sounder basis, with less risk to those who handle it, and less temptation to them to try for big profits out of bad ventures. ”

“ There is no more mysticism about the exchange itself than there is about a book auction room, or any other auction room where articles of merchandise are offered at an upset price, or auctioned off to the highest bidder. A man who buys stocks or bonds for investment is not gambling with anybody that they will go up or down; he buys them because he wants to invest his money and get interest or dividends on it. If a stock bought at $100 a share, paying seven per cent. ”

“ What are the further obvious deductions from the large increase of speculation in public securities thus suggested, to confine ourselves to one kind of market? If the business of the Stock markets were reduced within safe and legitimate limits, that is, was confined to operations of a bona fide investment nature, it is certain that no more than one-tenth, it might be one-twentieth, of the brokers would be required to execute properly all the orders that come into the markets. ”

“ If there were not superstition there could be no religion; if there were not bad speculation there could be no good investment; if there were no wild ventures there would be no brilliantly successful enterprises.”
This is not hyperbole; it is fact. The world of business and enterprise must go on; it cannot stop. As it goes on capital must be enlisted, which is another way of saying that speculators must be attracted. ”

“ He knew nothing about buying securities, so I introduced him to a reputable firm of bankers and brokers, and in addition to warning him to buy no more than he could pay for in full, I cautioned the head of the firm not to encourage, or even to permit, him to speculate on margin. He bought twenty shares each of five investment stocks, and a few weeks later he informed me, quite excitedly, that already his purchases showed a profit of more than six hundred dollars; also that inasmuch as the market was “going higher” he thought he ought to double his holdings. ”

“ A wholesale scattering of prospectuses among a class of people who are not at all likely to read them even, will injure the credit of the scheme for which it is desired to raise the capital in proportion to the number of prospectuses that are thus wasted. As in everything else, in business great care must be taken to offer the right sort of investment to the persons addressed. ”

“ Such instances are not at all uncommon; nor is it uncommon to hear intelligent business men remark that they know they ought to sell certain investment securities, because the market price has risen out of all proportion to the income yield, but other good securities are all so high that they really don’t know what to put their money in. The chances are probably a hundred to one that if the money were put in the bank and allowed to rest a while at three per cent. ”

“ Today, after fifteen months of national sunshine and cloudless skies in all directions, we believe it behooves a man of affairs to take counsel with himself relative to his investment and speculative position. Many business men who should have learned better by past experience, still take the business situation as a guide to their stock market [78] operations in spite of the fact that all stock exchange history shows that the market turns up long before a period of business depression has run its course and likewise turns down six months or more before prosperity comes to a pause. ”

“ Most men follow a leader in investment as in other things. The spirit of speculation grows till it becomes almost a frenzy, and people rush toward this or that investment, throwing capitalization in some industries far out of equilibrium with that in others. ”

“ When A and B find their £1000 bill about to fall due, and the expected proceeds of their speculation not forthcoming—when they find, as they often do, either that the investment has resulted in a loss instead of a gain; or that the time for realizing their hoped-for profits, has not yet come; or that the profits, if there are any, do not cover the extravagances of living which, in the meantime, they have sanguinely indulged in—when, in short, they find that the bill cannot be taken up; they resort to the expedient of manufacturing other bills with which to liquidate the first. ”

“ It is so whether the purchases or sales are by investors or speculators, for speculation on the Stock Exchange is not gambling. Whether stocks, or bonds, are bought, or sold, by investors or speculators is immaterial between the contracting brokers on the floor of the Exchange. They know no difference whatever. Delivery of the stocks or bonds is made by the one, and received by the other, in every case, and payments made accordingly, at the sale and purchase prices, investment and speculative transactions being treated exactly alike. ”

“ A matter of present and future importance in connection with many investment and speculative stocks, involving as it does questions on which there is a wide diversity of opinion, is the modern practice of increasing [103] the outstanding shares of corporations by splitting them up into fractions, or by declaring liberal stock dividends. Many of the large companies have recently doubled and quadrupled their shares, and some have issued as high as nine new shares for one, on somewhat the same principle as the Government will issue ten one dollar notes in exchange for a ten dollar bill. ”

“ Such so-called investments are in reality highly speculative. They involve risks which are unknown and altogether to be avoided. Now no one speculates in his own legitimate business, for there he is acquainted with the hazards which, he has learned, require the best of knowledge and the greatest of prudence. It is the allurement of the unknown that tempts him to seek unearned profits through speculation in outside regions where, in the nature of the case, the chances must be against him. ”

“ It may with tolerable certainty be argued that new stock brokers and new jobbers in the early part of their career depend very much upon speculative commission business, and the above figures, therefore, afford ample evidence of the increase of speculation in these markets. ”

“ Unless a speculator, whether in the Stock markets or any other market, is prepared to lay down all the elaborate machinery, without which, in these times, it is utterly hopeless to attempt to achieve favourable results in any degree, he must inevitably in the long run lose his money. ”

“ The fact of speculation having come to be practised by established companies, where before it was a kind of business that it was considered necessary to pursue as secretly as possible, proves how strong is the tendency of the age in which we live to make royal roads to wealth. ”

“ Wild speculation by all classes of the community, particularly in land, mining shares, and Stock Exchange securities, but not as a rule in produce, the wealthiest capitalists in the country entering into stock speculation in the late summer, and using most unscrupulously their power over company finance to help along their purposes ”

“ It may revive more rapidly even than legitimate business does; and as it grows to greater dimensions, it will draw away from legitimate business and press into the service of speculation as large an amount of currency as it can lay hold of. The expansion of speculation, therefore, is likely, nay, it is certain, to reduce the present abundance of money in the loan market, and again to bring forth here and there a feeling of scarcity. ”

“ A great deal of nonsense is also heard about speculation. Now, speculation, like many other good things, may be carried to excess, and is then injurious and open to the severest criticism. But speculation within reasonable limits is most beneficial. It is one of the main incentives to enterprise. Crush this disposition to venture, or the willingness to accept a risk, and enterprise would languish, trade and industry would decline, and we should gradually settle down to certain industrial and commercial decay. ”

“ Under present conditions the abuses of speculation are more in evidence than the economic advantages. How to confine speculation to the small group of risk-takers who have special training and aptitude for it, and to prevent gambling on the stock and produce exchanges is one of the economic problems of the day. ”

“ The example of one stimulates another; speculation rises on speculation; bubble rises on bubble; every one helps with his breath to swell the windy superstructure, and admires and wonders at the magnitude of the inflation he has contributed to produce.
Speculation is the romance of trade, and casts contempt upon all its sober realities. It renders the stock-jobber a magician, and the exchange a region of enchantment. It elevates the merchant into a kind of knight-errant, or rather a commercial Quixote. ”

“ Men of Wall Street, it is impossible to prevent the repetition of those acts by which in five years I have accumulated a billion dollars, impossible so long as a short sale or a repurchase and resale, is allowed. When short sales, and repurchases and resales, are made impossible, stock speculation will be dead. ”

“ If legitimate trading business, in which the risk of loss is so reduced as to enable a man to earn a living at it, cannot be carried on without adequate capital, how is it possible that pure speculation can be successfully practised in which the conditions are reversed, and at which experience shows that no one can succeed except the professional expert, and only then in some cases under circumstances to which we have before referred? ”

“ At every rise and fall in a country’s prosperity there is a flow and ebb in the tide of speculation, not only in stocks and shares, but in all markets. We refer now to that class of speculation which is an excrescence of prosperous times. A merchant’s business is at all times more or less of a speculative nature, it cannot be otherwise; but this is very different from the speculation of outsiders in commodities which they know nothing about. ”

“ Intention is shifting and uncertain. There is chance in every industrial, commercial, and agricultural operation. But for the point at hand, the test is simple: do more exchanges take place than are necessary, under the existing division of labor, to advance the materials of industry through the stages of production, and get things finally to the consumer? If so, the excess of exchanges is speculative. Trading between men in the same stage of production is speculation. ”

“ Tens of thousands of people who for years had been imbibing the daily financial chronicles of the newspapers, but whose incomes were not sufficient to permit them to indulge in stock-market speculation in rails and industrials, found in cheap mining stocks the thing they were looking for—an opportunity for those with limited capital to give full play to their gambling, or speculative, instinct. ”

“ Our moneyed kings may have enriched themselves by stock jobbing, but this precarious procedure requires large capital, and the few enormous fortunes accumulated are merely the monuments marking the graves of thousands of foolhardy unfortunates caught in the vortex of speculation. ”

“ When stocks have attained a reasonably high level of value as a result of the recovery [105] of a country’s industry, the chances for the speculator to profit by a continuous rise are of course gone, and he seeks in other directions to turn his capital to account; but the example we have given illustrates perhaps the most legitimate of all forms of speculation in Stocks, provided always the operator knows his business, and allows a sufficient margin for contingencies. ”

“ All, to be sure, as yet exists in promise; but the believer in promises calculates the aggregate as solid capital, and falls back in amazement at the amount of public wealth, the "unexampled state of public prosperity."
Now is the time for speculative and dreaming or designing men. They relate their dreams and projects to the ignorant and credulous, dazzle them with golden visions, and set them madding after shadows. The example of one stimulates another; speculation rises on speculation; bubble rises on bubble ”

“ While there is much of what may be deemed pure speculation (some of it reckless and unprincipled enough) carried on through the medium of the Stock Exchange, it should be remembered that there is no business, however legitimate or conservative in its character or pretensions, that has not its speculative side, and does not present ample opportunities for reckless or inexperienced men to ruin themselves if they choose. ”

“ Whether there be any more rise or not left in public securities as a body after the turn of the half-year,—we are speaking from a bull point of view, as that is the way in which the public, in ninety-nine cases out of a hundred, operate,—we should always recommend a speculator to pack up his traps and go right away, whether he has won or lost on balance. ”

“ That it is absolutely necessary that a speculator should possess capital may be illustrated from several points of view, and although we may become, perhaps, tedious by repetition, as in Chapter III., for instance, when speaking of the temperament of a speculator, the time spent in double reflections by the uninitiated may prevent shipwreck, at least in the first stages. ”