Investment speculation

“ If the public would learn the A B C of investment, and also learn that there is an essential difference between investment and speculation, that they will not blend easily but are likely to spoil one another if one tries to mix them, then the whole business of loan issuing and company promotion would be on a sounder basis, with less risk to those who handle it, and less temptation to them to try for big profits out of bad ventures. ”

“ The truth seems to be that all investment is speculation, differing from it in degree but not in kind. This salient fact was recognized as long ago as 1825, when, despite the comparatively limited field for investment enterprise, McCulloch saw what was coming and grasped the true idea of the part speculation and its handmaiden, investment, were to play in the industrial renaissance.46 Coming at a time when speculation was new, and subjected, as all innovations are, to widespread criticism and doubt, his words have prophetic significance. ”

“ Most men follow a leader in investment as in other things. The spirit of speculation grows till it becomes almost a frenzy, and people rush toward this or that investment, throwing capitalization in some industries far out of equilibrium with that in others. ”

“ Today, after fifteen months of national sunshine and cloudless skies in all directions, we believe it behooves a man of affairs to take counsel with himself relative to his investment and speculative position. Many business men who should have learned better by past experience, still take the business situation as a guide to their stock market [78] operations in spite of the fact that all stock exchange history shows that the market turns up long before a period of business depression has run its course and likewise turns down six months or more before prosperity comes to a pause. ”

“ It is so whether the purchases or sales are by investors or speculators, for speculation on the Stock Exchange is not gambling. Whether stocks, or bonds, are bought, or sold, by investors or speculators is immaterial between the contracting brokers on the floor of the Exchange. They know no difference whatever. Delivery of the stocks or bonds is made by the one, and received by the other, in every case, and payments made accordingly, at the sale and purchase prices, investment and speculative transactions being treated exactly alike. ”

“ A wholesale scattering of prospectuses among a class of people who are not at all likely to read them even, will injure the credit of the scheme for which it is desired to raise the capital in proportion to the number of prospectuses that are thus wasted. As in everything else, in business great care must be taken to offer the right sort of investment to the persons addressed. ”

“ The most fruitful policy will be found in measures which will lessen speculation by persons not qualified to engage in it. In carrying out such a policy exchanges can accomplish more than legislatures. In connection with our reports on the different exchanges, as well as on the field of investment and speculation which lies outside of the exchanges, we hall make recommendations directed to the removal418 of various evils now existing and to the reduction of the volume of speculation of the gambling type. ”

“ Intention is shifting and uncertain. There is chance in every industrial, commercial, and agricultural operation. But for the point at hand, the test is simple: do more exchanges take place than are necessary, under the existing division of labor, to advance the materials of industry through the stages of production, and get things finally to the consumer? If so, the excess of exchanges is speculative. Trading between men in the same stage of production is speculation. ”

“ Such so-called investments are in reality highly speculative. They involve risks which are unknown and altogether to be avoided. Now no one speculates in his own legitimate business, for there he is acquainted with the hazards which, he has learned, require the best of knowledge and the greatest of prudence. It is the allurement of the unknown that tempts him to seek unearned profits through speculation in outside regions where, in the nature of the case, the chances must be against him. ”

“ It may revive more rapidly even than legitimate business does; and as it grows to greater dimensions, it will draw away from legitimate business and press into the service of speculation as large an amount of currency as it can lay hold of. The expansion of speculation, therefore, is likely, nay, it is certain, to reduce the present abundance of money in the loan market, and again to bring forth here and there a feeling of scarcity. ”

“ You can and you will reanimate that spirit of reckless speculation, and set up again some of those windy enterprises which have drawn away so much of the capital of the country from productive business, and wasted it. You can and will make our banks and institutions of credit once more the mere tenders of wild speculation and dealers in fictitious values. You can and will seduce our merchants and manufacturers once more to spread their capital and their credit all over creation. You can and will make trade lively for a while by driving up prices to an unnatural height. ”

“ Men of Wall Street, it is impossible to prevent the repetition of those acts by which in five years I have accumulated a billion dollars, impossible so long as a short sale or a repurchase and resale, is allowed. When short sales, and repurchases and resales, are made impossible, stock speculation will be dead. ”

“ To drive dealings in time options from the Produce and other exchanges would be to drive them to Canada, Liverpool, and London, and let the markets there make prices for us, instead of making them for ourselves, all of which shows the absurdity of this clamor against speculation in stocks and speculative commodities. ”

“ Wild speculation by all classes of the community, particularly in land, mining shares, and Stock Exchange securities, but not as a rule in produce, the wealthiest capitalists in the country entering into stock speculation in the late summer, and using most unscrupulously their power over company finance to help along their purposes ”

“ A great deal of nonsense is also heard about speculation. Now, speculation, like many other good things, may be carried to excess, and is then injurious and open to the severest criticism. But speculation within reasonable limits is most beneficial. It is one of the main incentives to enterprise. Crush this disposition to venture, or the willingness to accept a risk, and enterprise would languish, trade and industry would decline, and we should gradually settle down to certain industrial and commercial decay. ”

“ Unless a speculator, whether in the Stock markets or any other market, is prepared to lay down all the elaborate machinery, without which, in these times, it is utterly hopeless to attempt to achieve favourable results in any degree, he must inevitably in the long run lose his money. ”

“ The long upward trend of fundamental progress, however, gave rise to over-optimism as to profits, which translated itself into a wave of uncontrolled speculation in securities, resulting in the diversion of capital from business to the stock market and the inevitable crash. ”

“ Tens of thousands of people who for years had been imbibing the daily financial chronicles of the newspapers, but whose incomes were not sufficient to permit them to indulge in stock-market speculation in rails and industrials, found in cheap mining stocks the thing they were looking for—an opportunity for those with limited capital to give full play to their gambling, or speculative, instinct. ”

“ The consensus of opinion among those who have studied the course of speculation on exchanges seems, however, to be that if manipulation of prices and monopoly can be kept out of the market, and if the laws of supply and demand are allowed to operate freely, the effect of speculation, particularly of dealing in futures, has a healthful balancing effect on the market. ”

“ The example of one stimulates another; speculation rises on speculation; bubble rises on bubble; every one helps with his breath to swell the windy superstructure, and admires and wonders at the magnitude of the inflation he has contributed to produce.
Speculation is the romance of trade, and casts contempt upon all its sober realities. It renders the stock-jobber a magician, and the exchange a region of enchantment. It elevates the merchant into a kind of knight-errant, or rather a commercial Quixote. ”

“ Under present conditions the abuses of speculation are more in evidence than the economic advantages. How to confine speculation to the small group of risk-takers who have special training and aptitude for it, and to prevent gambling on the stock and produce exchanges is one of the economic problems of the day. ”

“ When stocks have attained a reasonably high level of value as a result of the recovery [105] of a country’s industry, the chances for the speculator to profit by a continuous rise are of course gone, and he seeks in other directions to turn his capital to account; but the example we have given illustrates perhaps the most legitimate of all forms of speculation in Stocks, provided always the operator knows his business, and allows a sufficient margin for contingencies. ”

“ If legitimate trading business, in which the risk of loss is so reduced as to enable a man to earn a living at it, cannot be carried on without adequate capital, how is it possible that pure speculation can be successfully practised in which the conditions are reversed, and at which experience shows that no one can succeed except the professional expert, and only then in some cases under circumstances to which we have before referred? ”

“ A well planned and matured operation, looking far ahead, backed by ample capital and patience, is the only way to make a fortune at the Stock Exchange, and prudence demands that in case the speculator’s idea should have been wrong, he should have a safe way for a retreat open. Options will fulfill all these demands; and no matter how expensive, if the speculator can afford it, it is the only way of speculating in a safe and reasonable manner. ”

“ The natural and inevitable consequence of this state of things, at a moment when trade was suddenly revived, was a rage for speculation. Not only merchants and manufacturers were seized with this epidemic; the desire for higher profits than could be obtained by quiet and perfectly safe investments spread amongst every class. ”

“ Hence we see that just as every farmer in the West and every cotton-grower in the South must have a stable market for his products, so every laborer in our great industrial field is directly concerned with the maintenance of a stable market for the securities of the company that employs him. The interests of one are the interests of all, and speculation, in one form or another, underlies all industrial progress. ”

“ The speculating public gets action, likes it, and invests money that might have been used in margin-trading on the New York Stock Exchange or for "investment" in the constantly fluctuating low-priced industrials or higher-priced mining stocks that are sponsored by big interests with New York Stock Exchange affiliations. ”

“ It may with tolerable certainty be argued that new stock brokers and new jobbers in the early part of their career depend very much upon speculative commission business, and the above figures, therefore, afford ample evidence of the increase of speculation in these markets. ”

“ Fluctuations in employment are tied to all other wasteful fluctuations in our mechanism of production and distribution. One of these wastes is speculation. In securities or commodities, the larger the volume of speculation, the wider become the upward and downward swings and the more certain the result that in the long run there will be more losses than gains in the underlying wealth of the community. ”

“ Organized buyers are the only offset to organized sellers.
Moreover, rising prices due to high expenses of production, or to combinations of sellers, present a paradise for speculation. A movement upward based on facts can be easily converted into a further rise based only on speculative manipulation. A rise of prices which brings large profits to a combination, thus directly affects earnings and gives especial opportunity to speculation in the securities of industrials. Hence, the field of speculation spreads from commodities to securities. ”

“ The less trustworthy people are, the higher rises the rate of interest, the larger becomes the amount of capital hoarded, the greater are the impediments to industry. The further traders and people in general go beyond their means, and hypothecate the property of others in speculation, the more serious are those commercial panics which brings disasters on multitudes and injuriously affect all. ”

“ The illegitimate speculator is the one who starts with a small capital and with some method, with the idea of increasing it upon a system of incurring risks which, in the ordinary course of the market he may operate in, will enable him in case he has wrongly calculated the course of prices, to pay his losses and go on again. ”

“ At every rise and fall in a country’s prosperity there is a flow and ebb in the tide of speculation, not only in stocks and shares, but in all markets. We refer now to that class of speculation which is an excrescence of prosperous times. A merchant’s business is at all times more or less of a speculative nature, it cannot be otherwise; but this is very different from the speculation of outsiders in commodities which they know nothing about. ”